Fantasy Baseball Cafe Forums

by **Trojan Pony** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:40 pm

kab21 wrote:
Trojan Pony wrote:You guys have a collective Greinke boner for some reason. He's good but he's being significantly overhyped IMO. I'd probably take him 7th or 8th out of the pitchers listed in the poll.

Please explain. He's got 8.1 K/9 with 2.5 BB/9 and had a 3.56 FIP. He also didn't have any of the luck factors (HR/FB, BAPIP, LOB%) that accounted for his stats. And he's a lower injury risk than most of the pitchers on the list.

I would love to hear your argument against Greinke and see what I'm missing on him.

There's not much NOT to like about Greinke, but that doesn't mean he's the 17th best SP in the majors. More like 25th. He gives up a few too many hits for my taste and yes, as Giants (sarcastically) pointed out, he probably won't be in line for many wins. I'll take Ted Lilly a few rounds later who should put up better or similar numbers for a better team, and he's not even an option in this poll. I'll take Lester's fewer strikeouts or Dice-K's extra walks but better all-around numbers. I'll take Burnett on the Yankees who already has the track record of putting up the kind of numbers Greinke is capable of. Or Chris Young, or Kevin Slowey, or even Randy Johnson. I just don't see Greinke putting up numbers head-and-shoulders above any of these guys. Greinke's good, I just think he's a little overrated 'round these parts, that's all I'm saying.

by **Yoda** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 2:43 pm

I don't think he is overrated at all. You are underrating him if anything only because he is on a bad team.

by **kab21** » Mon Feb 16, 2009 4:36 pm

Trojan Pony wrote:There's not much NOT to like about Greinke, but that doesn't mean he's the 17th best SP in the majors. More like 25th. He gives up a few too many hits for my taste and yes, as Giants (sarcastically) pointed out, he probably won't be in line for many wins. I'll take Ted Lilly a few rounds later who should put up better or similar numbers for a better team, and he's not even an option in this poll. I'll take Lester's fewer strikeouts or Dice-K's extra walks but better all-around numbers. I'll take Burnett on the Yankees who already has the track record of putting up the kind of numbers Greinke is capable of. Or Chris Young, or Kevin Slowey, or even Randy Johnson. I just don't see Greinke putting up numbers head-and-shoulders above any of these guys. Greinke's good, I just think he's a little overrated 'round these parts, that's all I'm saying.

This poll isn't about who you can later at a better value, it's about who is the best current pitcher in the poll.

You named a bunch of guys that are injury risks (Burnett, Young, RJ and even Dice-K a little) or just are lesser pitchers. Dice-K is very overrated. Once his LOB%, HR/FB% and BAPIP normalize to the league averages that he also posted in '07, he's going to pitch like he did in '07. And Slowey is not close to Greinke.

Nice mention of Lester and Lilly. I also like them but I like Greinke more. He's just a better pitcher and the only real argument for either is the unpredictable wins category since they play for better teams. But those wins come at the expense of other categories.