Curtis Pride wrote:Most closers throw their "one pitch" about 80% of the time.
Until 2002, Mariano threw his fastball 95% of the time. Then he developed the cutter, and now he throws the cutter about 80% of the time.
I think if someone throws a pitch 80% of the time, that's a "one pitch" guy.
Mo is the exception not the rule.
Then So is Papelbon (82% fastball), Broxton (75% fastball), Valverde (75% fastball), BJ Ryan (80% fastball), Soria (74% fastball) Jenks (72% fastball), Fuentes (73% fastball), and the vast majority of closers out there. Only a few (K-Rod, Nathan, Lidge) split their pitches evenly among a couple pitches. Most have about 75% of their pitches (I said 80%, close enough) being their "one pitch". The rest are to set up their go-to pitch.
This is all on Fangraphs.
So yes, the problem with Motte isn't that he only has one reliable pitch. If there is a problem, it's because that one pitch isn't good enough.
Curtis Pride wrote:Most closers throw their "one pitch" about 80% of the time.
Until 2002, Mariano threw his fastball 95% of the time. Then he developed the cutter, and now he throws the cutter about 80% of the time.
I think if someone throws a pitch 80% of the time, that's a "one pitch" guy.
Mo is the exception not the rule.
Then So is Papelbon (82% fastball), Broxton (75% fastball), Valverde (75% fastball), BJ Ryan (80% fastball), Soria (74% fastball) Jenks (72% fastball), Fuentes (73% fastball), and the vast majority of closers out there. Only a few (K-Rod, Nathan, Lidge) split their pitches evenly among a couple pitches.
This is all on Fangraphs.
Most relievers with a great fastball will throw it 75% of the time. You can believe whatever you want but those guys you listed have secondary pitches that are a lot better than Motte's slider. I don't think it is even debatable but anyway.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Many SP throw their fastball 70% of the time and I think all of them at least 60%. A closer with a smaller repetoire throwing it 80% is not that strange. I'm not sure how one-pitch pitcher should be defined but I don't think 80% is it.
Maine has a good swing for a pitcher but on anything that moves, he has no chance. And if it's a fastball, it has to be up in the zone. Basically, the pitcher has to hit his bat. - Mike Pelfrey
Ok, so just so we're on the same page, you're now changing your argument from "he throws one pitch" (like every other reliever) and that Mariano is the "exception" to your contention that most closers don't rely on one pitch (since that's been shown to be an incorrect statement) to "Motte's secondary pitches aren't good enough" (which you've ascertained from seeing him what, once?)
Ok, given your new stance is in line with mine, I guess there is no debate. He needs to work on his secondary pitches. his 88 MPH slider is a good start
That, plus the fact minor leaguers have hit a combined .191/.220/.233 in his career and that he struck out 38% of batters in the PCL last year while walking only 9% of them makes me think that he's starting from a good spot.
In terms of "who is next"? I'd guess Franklin would immediately get a shot of Motte craps out, and when Perez comes back in a few weeks, he'll be a sleeper. McLellan is also a dark horse.
Curtis Pride wrote:Ok, so just so we're on the same page, you're now changing your argument from "he throws one pitch" (like every other reliever) and that Mariano is the "exception" to your contention that most closers don't rely on one pitch (since that's been shown to be an incorrect statement) to "Motte's secondary pitches aren't good enough" (which you've ascertained from seeing him what, once?)
Ok, given your new stance is in line with mine, I guess there is no debate. He needs to work on his secondary pitches. his 88 MPH slider is a good start
That, plus the fact minor leaguers have hit a combined .191/.220/.233 in his career and that he struck out 38% of batters in the PCL last year while walking only 9% of them makes me think that he's starting from a good spot.
In terms of "who is next"? I'd guess Franklin would immediately get a shot of Motte craps out, and when Perez comes back in a few weeks, he'll be a sleeper. McLellan is also a dark horse.
Motte has one viable pitch which is his fastball. He might throw his slider 20% of the time but it simply isn't good enough and hitters can just sit on his fastball. All of the guys you listed have at least a decent secondary pitch thus hitters can't just sit on their fastball. What is your argument?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Balfour is another guy that throws his fastball 92% of the time and has no viable secondary pitch. That is why I think he won't be an effective closer until he gets a second pitch. In the playoffs, and towards part of the end of the year, guys were sitting on that fastball. Good hitters can hit a fastball, no matter how fast it is if there is no movement
Motte should get another shot. I can't imagine TLR leash is that short. I didn't think it was a good idea to start with but the decision has been made. To yank him now after one blown save is just a bad idea.
I really hope Franklin doesn't get a shot. I think he would be fine for most save situations but he doesn't K enough batters to come in a jam and shut a team down. I still think Kinney will get a shot sooner or later.
Grounded Polo wrote:Did TLR actually say anything about Franklin possibly closing or are we just going bezerk and adding Franklin based on speculation?
TLR has not named a closer. Earlier in Spring Training he said Franklin was in the mix for saves.
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by Curtis Pride » Tue Apr 07, 2009 11:12 am 
