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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby quitesanemax » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:26 pm

auclairkeithbc wrote:
KronJon wrote:Maybe they are looking at more than just the 30 IP sample size from this year?

2007
Meyer: 8.82 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .294 BAA
Nunez: 3.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .259 BAA

2008
Meyer: 7.48 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .304 BAA
Nunez: 2.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .249 BAA


looking at last year's stats to select a potentially temporary closer really wouldn't make much sense. we have a decent sample size from this year. lots of guys come out of nowhere.


I'm not sure how you can say that looking at those type of drastic differences from previous years doesn't make much sense... makes all the sense in the world to me. It shows that Nunez has been the much better pitcher up until very recently. While Meyer has been great this year, he's been only slightly better than Nunez. Maybe the fact that Nunez has been doing good so much longer will earn him the closing spot. After all, whether they put Meyer in the game in the 8th or 9th, he is getting the job they need of him done.

At the very least those drastic differences over the past few years probably means that Meyer will likely have a very short leash if he does get the job.

After seeing the comparisons of the last few years, I think the Marlins should put Nunez in as closer. Would be interested to see what Calero's stats over the past few years have been... after all, he is the only one of the 3 who is available in my league! Lol.

Max

Edit: I was wrong, someone stashed Calero on the DL. Oh well.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:39 pm

KronJon wrote:
bigwords wrote:
Maris09 wrote:I kinda agree with that. Even if they do end up using Nunez and Calero, Meyer could get the call if the 9th inning projects to be left handed heavy (kind of like in Atl right now).


Meyer vs. right-handed batters: .150 BAA
Nunez vs. right-handed batters: .224 BAA

Is there any good reason other than manager's prerogative that Nunez deserves the 9th inning more than Meyer?

Nunez vs. left-handed batters: .206 BAA
Nunez vs. right-handed batters: .224 BAA

Meyer vs. left-handed batters: .188
Meyer vs. right-handed batters: .150

Maybe they are looking at more than just the 30 IP sample size from this year?

2007
Meyer: 8.82 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, .294 BAA
Nunez: 3.92 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .259 BAA

2008
Meyer: 7.48 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, .304 BAA
Nunez: 2.98 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .249 BAA


Hey, keep in mind that Meyer garnered those stats as a STARTER. He was a decent prospect and a key component in the deal that brought Tim Hudson to Atlanta. It takes a bit of time for prospects to develop and good starting pitching prospects tend to translate to great relievers.

As for Nunez, his career ERA sits at 4.92. His career WHIP sits at 1.42. And yeah, he too has played some games as a starter (in 2007), but you're parsing your sample size and comparing apples with oranges. One might also point to the fact that Nunez 2.98 ERA last year was wholly unsupported by a 26-to-15 strikeout-to-walk rate in 48 innings. Nunez was ok last year, but far from showing any long-term closer potential.

This year, Nunez has an xERA of 4.13. Last year, it was 5.17. The year before that, it was 4.48. And so on.

This all adds up to the prospect that Nunez probably fails as closer, if he gets the opportunity.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby KronJon » Thu Jun 25, 2009 2:17 pm

bigwords wrote: Hey, keep in mind that Meyer garnered those stats as a STARTER.


Partially true. He only started 3 games in '07 and 4 games in '08. The rest were relief appearances where he did not perform well.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby neoforce » Thu Jun 25, 2009 2:57 pm

Pedros Little Friend wrote: It's also worth noting that they only have one other lefty in the pen. So Gonzalez might favor a righty, even if Meyer performs well, because they'll need him in other spots. I realize he's been great against righties too this year, but most managers like to play matchups.


I think that is a key point. Manager tendencies play a huge role in who is closing. Look at how Pinella preferred to use Marmol in the past. Back when Taylor Tankersley was probably the best arm in the pen, I got the feeling that Fredi was biased against left handed closers.

Just a gut feeling, nothing to back it up except watching how he managed his pen that year.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:03 pm

Back when Taylor Tankersley was the best arm in the pen, Fredi wasn't managing the team. Tankerssley's good year came in 2006, the year that Joe Girardi was the manager.

I'll grant you that manager tendencies tend to play a huge role in who is closing. Actually, not "tend." They do.

But a few things.

First, it's widely known in baseball that moving Scott Downs to the closer role was the right move in Toronto, despite him being left-handed. And if Fredi needs another role model, he needs to look no further than across the state in Tampa, where Howell has been doing a good job of late in the 9th. We're on the verge of a trend here, folks.

Second, if there's one tendency that managers show more than their handedness bias, it's riding a hot hand. Meyer did the job last night. Let's say he does it again soon before Nunez comes back. That's momentum.

Finally, I still don't think Nunez is particularly good. Certainly, he won't have much job security if he takes the job.

You can chase opportunity and hope a guy meets the challenge or you can chase good skills and hope that fortune catches up. I think I prefer the latter. More healthy on the ERA in the long-run anyway.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Crippler » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:07 pm

bigwords wrote:Back when Taylor Tankersley was the best arm in the pen, Fredi wasn't managing the team. Tankerssley's good year came in 2006, the year that Joe Girardi was the manager.

I'll grant you that manager tendencies tend to play a huge role in who is closing. Actually, not "tend." They do.

But a few things.

First, it's widely known in baseball that moving Scott Downs to the closer role was the right move in Toronto, despite him being left-handed. And if Fredi needs another role model, he needs to look no further than across the state in Tampa, where Howell has been doing a good job of late in the 9th. We're on the verge of a trend here, folks.

Second, if there's one tendency that managers show more than their handedness bias, it's riding a hot hand. Meyer did the job last night. Let's say he does it again soon before Nunez comes back. That's momentum.

Finally, I still don't think Nunez is particularly good. Certainly, he won't have much job security if he takes the job.

You can chase opportunity and hope a guy meets the challenge or you can chase good skills and hope that fortune catches up. I think I prefer the latter. More healthy on the ERA in the long-run anyway.


I'm confused. This seems pretty contradictory (bolded)...
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Thu Jun 25, 2009 4:28 pm

Not sure what you see as being contradictory.

I'm saying I'd rather take Meyer or even Calero because I see them as being worthy of the role. I don't think Nunez is worthy of the role.

I think the job is a toss-up at the moment, and I wouldn't be shocked if Nunez gets save opportunities, but I'd prefer to put my money on the horse with the potential to run to the finish line with fury, not the horse that appears to be in the lead, but is a good bet to fade down the stretch.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby neoforce » Thu Jun 25, 2009 7:48 pm

bigwords wrote:Back when Taylor Tankersley was the best arm in the pen, Fredi wasn't managing the team. Tankerssley's good year came in 2006, the year that Joe Girardi was the manager.

I'll grant you that manager tendencies tend to play a huge role in who is closing. Actually, not "tend." They do.


Actually, I was thinking of the beginning of 2007, when Fredi was there. And I had Tank for a buck with high hopes he would get the closer gig. So, I was following it closely.

Tank started the season on the disabled list. When he came off, he went through the usual low stress situations to get up to speed. Then he was really good, and the Marlins closer was shaky, maybe even on the DL for a bit. (Can't remember who. Boroski maybe?)

Tank was used a lot in 7th and 8th against lefties, but even with him throwing great, Fredi didn't use him in the 9th.

Granted the second half of the year Tank started to stink it up that eventually resulted him back in the minors today. But for a reasonable stretch of a few months in 2007, he as indeed one of the better arms in the pen, and used mostly by Fredi as a lefty matchup guy rather than a closer.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:00 pm

Ray giving up 5 runs in 1 2/3 IP, is there a ghost of a chance of him becoming the closer when Sherrill is traded?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Thu Jun 25, 2009 11:07 pm

This is getting off topic, but I still think your memory is a little rough about Tank in 2007. Here's his ERA splits by month that year:
April: 4.5
May: 8.36
June: 6.14

He actually did much better in the 2nd half, but I would hardly say he was the best reliever in the pen, and it's hard to fault the manager for not giving Tank the closer role after that brutal start.
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