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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby R3GGIE LEWI5 » Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:54 am

I dont get all this "still using choate for matchups" talk...Howell is a lefty too.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Tue Jun 16, 2009 9:54 am

yossarian wrote:
bigwords wrote:Call me crazy, but I'd take Howell over Capps, Aardsma, Sherrill, Rodney, Lindstrom, and Gregg at the moment. Howell may not be officially anointed, but his potential value even in a limited role seems greatly more secure.


Ok. You're crazy. No way would I ever take Howell over Aardsma. In the last month he has 7 saves with 16 Ks over 12.2 IP with an ERA of 2.13, a WHIP of 1.34 and a K/BB of 2.80. What more do you want out of your closer? he's not Paps or Nathan, but he certainly isn't Rodney or Lindstrom either.


The biggest problem with Aardsma is walks. He's allowed 20 men on base in 30.3 innings. His hit percentage is low, his strand percentage is high, and he's probably gotten a little lucky on fly balls too, although it certainly helps to be playing in Safeco.

He might have an ERA of 1.78 right now, but his xERA is a stomach-churning 4.84. Quite a difference, no?

If the Mariners were a decent team and contributed a lot of save opportunities, it'd be easier to live with that. You might be able to live with expected regression to about a 4.0 ERA, but Aardsma won't be seeing a ton of saves. Right now, he's got 11. He'll likely get more, and could end up in the 25-30 range that I pegged for Capps above, but it's hard to see more than that. Especially if the team trades Bedard.

So my note above stands. From here on out,
I see Aardsma as a potential 18+ saves guy with an expected ERA about 4 and an expected WHIP about 1.33.
I see Howell as a potential 14+ saves guy with an expected ERA about 3 and an expected WHIP around 1.23.
I'd be willing to sacrifice about 4 saves for the better ERA/WHIP.

It's certainly not a landslide for me, but the clincher to me is that Howell has been exhibiting better overall skills and I conclude from this that Howell has a better chance of maintaining (or even stepping up) his role than Aardsma. I see too much risk in Aardsma's profile. It's not like he's established himself long enough to be assured of keeping his job if and when he hits that speed bump his peripherals indicate are coming.

One more thing to consider when discussing Howell: Chad Bradford is currently on an injury rehab assignment. Bradford has been an extremely reliable set-up guy over the years, but his inability to get left-handers out limits his role. That said, Bradford could alleviate some of the problems in the 7th and 8th inning, allowing Howell more room to handle the 9th.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby as834625 » Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:15 pm

according to mlbtraderumors.com Baltimore is aggressively shopping both Sherrill and Baez .. who would be next in line .. Jim Johnson ?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Skins Fanatic » Tue Jun 16, 2009 12:34 pm

as834625 wrote:according to mlbtraderumors.com Baltimore is aggressively shopping both Sherrill and Baez .. who would be next in line .. Jim Johnson ?


IMO Yes. He's been their main 8th inning guy, which typically translates into next-in-line for Closer. He also picked up a couple of saves a few weekends back when Sherrill was unavailable.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Mortician » Tue Jun 16, 2009 2:44 pm

R3GGIE LEWI5 wrote:I dont get all this "still using choate for matchups" talk...Howell is a lefty too.


Howell may be a lefty, but he has far better success this year against righties. This year, right handed batters are hitting .143 against him, while lefties are hitting .282 against him. That's why choate is used against lefties. Choate hasn't given up a hit yet this year against lefties, albeit a relatively small sample size.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby yossarian » Tue Jun 16, 2009 2:52 pm

bigwords wrote:
yossarian wrote:
bigwords wrote:Call me crazy, but I'd take Howell over Capps, Aardsma, Sherrill, Rodney, Lindstrom, and Gregg at the moment. Howell may not be officially anointed, but his potential value even in a limited role seems greatly more secure.


Ok. You're crazy. No way would I ever take Howell over Aardsma. In the last month he has 7 saves with 16 Ks over 12.2 IP with an ERA of 2.13, a WHIP of 1.34 and a K/BB of 2.80. What more do you want out of your closer? he's not Paps or Nathan, but he certainly isn't Rodney or Lindstrom either.


The biggest problem with Aardsma is walks. He's allowed 20 men on base in 30.3 innings. His hit percentage is low, his strand percentage is high, and he's probably gotten a little lucky on fly balls too, although it certainly helps to be playing in Safeco.

He might have an ERA of 1.78 right now, but his xERA is a stomach-churning 4.84. Quite a difference, no?

If the Mariners were a decent team and contributed a lot of save opportunities, it'd be easier to live with that. You might be able to live with expected regression to about a 4.0 ERA, but Aardsma won't be seeing a ton of saves. Right now, he's got 11. He'll likely get more, and could end up in the 25-30 range that I pegged for Capps above, but it's hard to see more than that. Especially if the team trades Bedard.

So my note above stands. From here on out,
I see Aardsma as a potential 18+ saves guy with an expected ERA about 4 and an expected WHIP about 1.33.
I see Howell as a potential 14+ saves guy with an expected ERA about 3 and an expected WHIP around 1.23.
I'd be willing to sacrifice about 4 saves for the better ERA/WHIP.

It's certainly not a landslide for me, but the clincher to me is that Howell has been exhibiting better overall skills and I conclude from this that Howell has a better chance of maintaining (or even stepping up) his role than Aardsma. I see too much risk in Aardsma's profile. It's not like he's established himself long enough to be assured of keeping his job if and when he hits that speed bump his peripherals indicate are coming.

One more thing to consider when discussing Howell: Chad Bradford is currently on an injury rehab assignment. Bradford has been an extremely reliable set-up guy over the years, but his inability to get left-handers out limits his role. That said, Bradford could alleviate some of the problems in the 7th and 8th inning, allowing Howell more room to handle the 9th.


Damn you and your cold hard facts. I can't argue with those numbers. The only thing I would say is in regards to your remark about Aardsma's save chances. He has 7 saves over the last month. 9 was the most saves by any pitcher over that same period. Seattle's record won't be great, but when they do win, they seem to win by 3 or less so if current trends hold, Aardsma could see a good amount of chances going forward. Also, regarding his job securty, I'm not totally familiar with Seattle's bullpen past Marrow and Aardsma. With Marrow being stretched out to a SP, I figure Aardsma at this point has a pretty long leash as there's really nobody else in Seattle. Is there somebody waiting in the wings to jump in should he struggle?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby bigwords » Tue Jun 16, 2009 3:00 pm

yossarian wrote:I figure Aardsma at this point has a pretty long leash as there's really nobody else in Seattle. Is there somebody waiting in the wings to jump in should he struggle?


No great candidates, I'll admit that.

I guess Morrow would be the obvious guy, depending on how the experiment into the starting rotation goes.

I haven't heard much about Chad Cordero lately. I'm assuming he is still nursing an injury and isn't close to ready.

Mark Lowe and Miguel Batista are the two middle relievers in Seattle's bullpen who aren't performing better than Aardsma, but who might get a shot if things went way south for Aardsma. Not saying either would hold the job very long.

Biggest darkhorse might be Josh Fields, Seattle's first round pick from last year. Right now, Fields is looking a lot like Aardsma, striking out a lot, putting men on base via walk. If he refined his command some, he'd probably be in line for a call up. Seattle obviously drafted him with their highest pick with hopes he could contribute to their ballclub as soon as possible.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby rookies and cream » Tue Jun 16, 2009 6:09 pm

bigwords wrote:
yossarian wrote:I figure Aardsma at this point has a pretty long leash as there's really nobody else in Seattle. Is there somebody waiting in the wings to jump in should he struggle?


No great candidates, I'll admit that.

I guess Morrow would be the obvious guy, depending on how the experiment into the starting rotation goes.

I haven't heard much about Chad Cordero lately. I'm assuming he is still nursing an injury and isn't close to ready.

Mark Lowe and Miguel Batista are the two middle relievers in Seattle's bullpen who aren't performing better than Aardsma, but who might get a shot if things went way south for Aardsma. Not saying either would hold the job very long.

Biggest darkhorse might be Josh Fields, Seattle's first round pick from last year. Right now, Fields is looking a lot like Aardsma, striking out a lot, putting men on base via walk. If he refined his command some, he'd probably be in line for a call up. Seattle obviously drafted him with their highest pick with hopes he could contribute to their ballclub as soon as possible.


Fields is definitely the darkhorse and is likely to be called up at some point this year. His control has been better of late. He actually hasn't walked anyone his last 6 IP and has only given up one run and one hit since his return from injury late last month.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby beagle » Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:50 pm

Since Balt and Col seem to be trying to shop their closers, we are looking at Corpas and Johnson as people to keep a close eye on. Anyone else out there that we should be keeping dibs on?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby mblax10 » Tue Jun 16, 2009 7:53 pm

rookies and cream wrote:Fields is definitely the darkhorse and is likely to be called up at some point this year. His control has been better of late. He actually hasn't walked anyone his last 6 IP and has only given up one run and one hit since his return from injury late last month.


Yeah, walking 4 of the first 6 batters of the season will make your walk rate look bad for a while.
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