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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Crippler » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:30 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
Jays for Days wrote:yeah really what's the point of owning a reliever to get saves if they ruin your WHIP/ERA
closers I think are overrated

Closers are a bit overrated because they only help you (significantly) in one category, but this is why it is good to chase saves - closers can't really ruin your ERA and WHIP (in Roto anyhow) - they simply don't pitch enough innings to hurt you that badly. For example, in a 1250 IP league, a closer with a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 70 IP would only increase your ERA by about .06 (e.g. 3.50 to 3.56) and your WHIP by about .01 (1.25 to 1.26). Well worth the risk since those crappy closers cost next to nothing and might let you scrounge up 20 saves.


Well put! This is why passing on Mo and Papelbon is generally a good idea if you're able to scour the waiver wire and grab some solid late closers like Broxton, Francisco, Jenks, etc.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Dan Lambskin » Wed Jun 10, 2009 11:41 am

Bloody Sox wrote:
Jays for Days wrote:yeah really what's the point of owning a reliever to get saves if they ruin your WHIP/ERA
closers I think are overrated

Closers are a bit overrated because they only help you (significantly) in one category, but this is why it is good to chase saves - closers can't really ruin your ERA and WHIP (in Roto anyhow) - they simply don't pitch enough innings to hurt you that badly. For example, in a 1250 IP league, a closer with a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 70 IP would only increase your ERA by about .06 (e.g. 3.50 to 3.56) and your WHIP by about .01 (1.25 to 1.26). Well worth the risk since those crappy closers cost next to nothing and might let you scrounge up 20 saves.


assuming your numbers are right, lets say you're trotting out 3 crappy closers like that, chasing saves. so you might be looking at a .18 ERA swing and a .03 WHIP swing

just looking at some numbers from a 12 team league last year

ERA
3.54
3.69
3.84
3.85
3.85
3.89
3.94
3.96
4.05
4.22
4.24
4.25


WHIP (additional decimals not shown)
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.31
1.31
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.36
1.39

ERA might not matter as much, but WHIP races can be really tight...you might end up costing yourself 5-10 points chasing saves...especially when you're really desperate and picking up the Hanrahans of the world who are really getting crushed...not to mention the extra K's top closers might get you

this thread isnt really the place to discuss this, and i'm not advocating spending a really high draft pick on the #1 closer, but i think the belief that closers only help in saves and dont hurt in other areas is somewhat of a fallacy
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote: This thread isnt really the place to discuss this, and i'm not advocating spending a really high draft pick on the #1 closer, but i think the belief that closers only help in saves and dont hurt in other areas is somewhat of a fallacy

I'm certainly not saying that closers only help in saves and don't hurt elsewhere, but a lot of people see that 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and think the impact will be as bad as that of a starter with the same numbers, stating "they'll ruin your ERA and WHIP". There are trade-offs with everything that need to be considered - its not black and white.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Bwanna » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:20 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:ERA might not matter as much, but WHIP races can be really tight...you might end up costing yourself 5-10 points chasing saves...especially when you're really desperate and picking up the Hanrahans of the world who are really getting crushed...not to mention the extra K's top closers might get you

this thread isnt really the place to discuss this, and i'm not advocating spending a really high draft pick on the #1 closer, but i think the belief that closers only help in saves and dont hurt in other areas is somewhat of a fallacy


I split this off into another topic, not sure it was necessary, but this is a good discussion topic IMO...
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby thatguy27 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:51 pm

With Soriano having pitched 3 innings in the past two days, is it unlikely that he pitches tonight? Do the Braves tend to rest him after pitching on consecutive nights, especially when he throws more than two innings?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby iltat » Wed Jun 10, 2009 12:55 pm

I would be surprised if he pitches again tonight, but with the extra inning debacles of the last week throughout the MLB, there's always a slight chance.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby metsfan12 » Wed Jun 10, 2009 1:46 pm

Crippler wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
Jays for Days wrote:yeah really what's the point of owning a reliever to get saves if they ruin your WHIP/ERA
closers I think are overrated

Closers are a bit overrated because they only help you (significantly) in one category, but this is why it is good to chase saves - closers can't really ruin your ERA and WHIP (in Roto anyhow) - they simply don't pitch enough innings to hurt you that badly. For example, in a 1250 IP league, a closer with a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 70 IP would only increase your ERA by about .06 (e.g. 3.50 to 3.56) and your WHIP by about .01 (1.25 to 1.26). Well worth the risk since those crappy closers cost next to nothing and might let you scrounge up 20 saves.


Well put! This is why passing on Mo and Papelbon is generally a good idea if you're able to scour the waiver wire and grab some solid late closers like Broxton, Francisco, Jenks, etc.


He is completely wrong about this. You are talking about a top closer vs a low one but you only showed the effect of adding a low closer, not replacing a good one. In a 1250IP league, if the other 1180 IP has an ERA of 3.50, a 5.00 ERA closer will raise that to 3.58 (your number is a little off) BUT a top closer with a 2.00 ERA will lower that ERA to 3.42, so that is a .16 swing. Now let's compare a top SP compared to a lower SP to see if paying for the top closer helps you only in saves as you suggest. So we start with 1050 IP at 3.5 ERA and add in 200 IP at 3.00 (A pretty darn good SP), that gets you to 3.42, while a pretty average starter with a 4.00 ERA raises it to 3.58. Notice that the difference between a top of the line closer and a low closer has the same affect (mostly) as a top SP and one you can get in later rounds (or even spot starters)? Furthermore! Good closers have a huge affect on your K's in an inning limit league. It is a similar thing with ERA, WHIP and K's, the closers have a lesser impact because of fewer IP pitched but that is completely negated by the fact that the differences in ERA/WHIP/K are so much greater between the top and bottom guys. Top closers ARE worth the high price that you have to pay in most leagues (although some go too high of coures).
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby aaronharangatang » Wed Jun 10, 2009 2:43 pm

I know Cj Wilson has experience closing, but if Frank Francisco hits the DL is there any chance Darren O'Day gets a chance. He's been very sharp so far.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby iltat » Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:13 pm

CJ has experience closing and experience sucking at closing. If he drops the ball, I wouldn't be surprised if it moved into a committee that could include any and every reliever the Rangers have.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Crippler » Wed Jun 10, 2009 3:30 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
Jays for Days wrote:yeah really what's the point of owning a reliever to get saves if they ruin your WHIP/ERA
closers I think are overrated

Closers are a bit overrated because they only help you (significantly) in one category, but this is why it is good to chase saves - closers can't really ruin your ERA and WHIP (in Roto anyhow) - they simply don't pitch enough innings to hurt you that badly. For example, in a 1250 IP league, a closer with a 5.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 70 IP would only increase your ERA by about .06 (e.g. 3.50 to 3.56) and your WHIP by about .01 (1.25 to 1.26). Well worth the risk since those crappy closers cost next to nothing and might let you scrounge up 20 saves.


assuming your numbers are right, lets say you're trotting out 3 crappy closers like that, chasing saves. so you might be looking at a .18 ERA swing and a .03 WHIP swing

just looking at some numbers from a 12 team league last year

ERA
3.54
3.69
3.84
3.85
3.85
3.89
3.94
3.96
4.05
4.22
4.24
4.25


WHIP (additional decimals not shown)
1.27
1.27
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.31
1.31
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.36
1.39

ERA might not matter as much, but WHIP races can be really tight...you might end up costing yourself 5-10 points chasing saves...especially when you're really desperate and picking up the Hanrahans of the world who are really getting crushed...not to mention the extra K's top closers might get you

this thread isnt really the place to discuss this, and i'm not advocating spending a really high draft pick on the #1 closer, but i think the belief that closers only help in saves and dont hurt in other areas is somewhat of a fallacy


You make a valid point, but it's a huge stretch. You're saying that not only do you burn 3 higher picks on those closers (which could be used on solid batters or SPs), but you're assuming that all 3 perform well while all 3 of the cheap closers will perform poorly. That's not really going to happen very often at all. I think you can assume in most cases that at least 1 of your three high-pick closers will falter and one of your low-pick closers will outperform their draft position (since many have this season and in seasons past). Therefore, you'd be burning 3 high picks to have 2 solid closers and 1 that doesnt do so well, as opposed to maybe 1 solid closer and two that dont work out that well.

Long story short, I think your example has a very very low probability of playing out, added to the fact that you're passing on a lot of talent just to draft 3 highly ranked closers.
He is completely wrong about this. You are talking about a top closer vs a low one but you only showed the effect of adding a low closer, not replacing a good one. In a 1250IP league, if the other 1180 IP has an ERA of 3.50, a 5.00 ERA closer will raise that to 3.58 (your number is a little off) BUT a top closer with a 2.00 ERA will lower that ERA to 3.42, so that is a .16 swing. Now let's compare a top SP compared to a lower SP to see if paying for the top closer helps you only in saves as you suggest. So we start with 1050 IP at 3.5 ERA and add in 200 IP at 3.00 (A pretty darn good SP), that gets you to 3.42, while a pretty average starter with a 4.00 ERA raises it to 3.58. Notice that the difference between a top of the line closer and a low closer has the same affect (mostly) as a top SP and one you can get in later rounds (or even spot starters)? Furthermore! Good closers have a huge affect on your K's in an inning limit league. It is a similar thing with ERA, WHIP and K's, the closers have a lesser impact because of fewer IP pitched but that is completely negated by the fact that the differences in ERA/WHIP/K are so much greater between the top and bottom guys. Top closers ARE worth the high price that you have to pay in most leagues (although some go too high of coures).


Once again, some good points (especially the first one!), but you're ignoring a big factor....you're comparing 'top of the line' closers to 'low' closers while comparing 'top' SPs to 'later rounds' SPs. This is faulty, because top pitchers arent taken even close to the same rounds as top closers...so top SPs in the 2nd round vs a low SP in the last rounds is not equivalent to top RPs taken in the middle rounds vs RPs taken in the last rounds. Therefore, you'd need to compare middle-round SPs vs late round SPs against top RPs vs late round RPs.
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