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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Magnus_CA » Sat May 02, 2009 5:40 am

wildbill wrote:
nolanwood wrote:
wildbill wrote:Ok if you want to count all blown saves even if the occurred when he was a setup man (could be termed blown holds)then you must count all non-blown saves which would be saves + holds. So that's 47 BS and 195 non-BS, which is an 80.6% lead preservation rate. What do you know, that's about the same as his save rate in the 3 years he spent a significant portion of his time as closer. Either you have to look at what he did as a closer or you have to look at all the numbers whether he was a closer or not. You can't take only saves and then take BS that occurred while he was working as a setup man. You number manipulation is far more flawed do to your unbalanced equation. You can't combine unrelated data from one side of the equation and not do it for the other side as well and expect it to mean anything useful, but apparently you do.


Flawed logic? :-D ;-D

Fair enough. Let's look at what he did as a closer.

2000 : became closer a couple months into the season. 14 saves, o blown

2001: 28 saves, 9 blown (32% blown)

2004: 25 saves, 9 blown (36% blown)

Two of his three seasons as a closer he's blown nearly 1/3 of his saves. Those #'s are relatively close to his career bs rate of nearly 40% that you are defending. :-?

You trashed me for presenting the numbers in the most logical way and yet it appears you have no problem giving numbers another way. There's a word for that. And then on top of that you can't even get your math right and you're not even close.

28 + 9 = 37 total ops........ 28 / 37 * 100 = 76% SV ...... 100 - 76 = 24% BS ..... you're off by 8%
25 + 9 = 34 total ops........ 25 / 34 * 100 = 74% SV ...... 100 - 74 = 26% BS ..... you're off by a whopping 10%
Add the 3 seasons together you get 79% SV and 21% BS. I've already said this before.

You failed to get simple percentage math calculations correct. That is a fact no one can refute. Given that, I guess I can't expect you to understand more complex statistical analysis. You don't seem to understand that if you're going to count BS in Hold situations you have to count holds with saves, otherwise you have an unbalanced equation that gives you bogus statistics. You don't seem to have the math background to understand that and I don't know how else to explain it in simpler terms. At any rate using the balanced equation his BS % was under 20% and his lead preservation rate was 80.6% to this point in his career. I don't think it would be valuable to continue arguing with you when you have demonstrated you don't have the math background to understand more complicated analysis. It's no big deal, this kind of math isn't everyone's cup of tea. For my particular field of work I had to take lots of higher level math. If there's anything I can do to help you understand this let me know. Even though you wrongly trashed me I'm, willing to help if I can.

BTW for future reference I see where you made your mistakes. You did the calculation as BS / SV * 100. That's where you went wrong. You should have used this formula.... BS / (SV + BS) * 100. That is of course only valid in the years where he had no Holds.


Are you capable of arguing your point without being condescending? Willing to help are you? Looks more like a self invitation to hear yourself talk. Where's that arrogance smiley again?

:^ Sheesh.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby AussieDodger » Sat May 02, 2009 7:18 am

Halo Homers wrote:
Niffoc4 wrote:With Felipe Paulino moving to the pen, could he be next in line behind Hawkins? Seems like he could be as good a bet as one of the lesser Washington options


____________________________________________________________________________________

What do people think about Paulino? Guy has a K/9 of about 7 and K/BB over 3 so far this year. Out with injuries most of last year. Had high 90s heat before injury. Worth a flyer with Valverde out?


Paulino is a really interesting pitcher, and should be excellent as an RP, but with Moehler and Russ Ortiz being the 4th and 5th starters Houston will/should be re-inserting him into the rotation in the not too distant future.

At least that's what a sensible team would do. :-S

I really don't think he'll be the closer.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Niffoc4 » Sat May 02, 2009 8:13 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Halo Homers wrote:
Niffoc4 wrote:With Felipe Paulino moving to the pen, could he be next in line behind Hawkins? Seems like he could be as good a bet as one of the lesser Washington options


____________________________________________________________________________________

What do people think about Paulino? Guy has a K/9 of about 7 and K/BB over 3 so far this year. Out with injuries most of last year. Had high 90s heat before injury. Worth a flyer with Valverde out?


Paulino is a really interesting pitcher, and should be excellent as an RP, but with Moehler and Russ Ortiz being the 4th and 5th starters Houston will/should be re-inserting him into the rotation in the not too distant future.

At least that's what a sensible team would do. :-S

I really don't think he'll be the closer.


That makes sense... but if they didn't...

@CadensDad- it all depends on the depth of your league. Sure if you play in a 12-team league you don't have to worry about it, but in my 20-team league with 13 keepers each year getting saves from ANYBODY is important.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby mblax10 » Sat May 02, 2009 9:59 am

wildbill wrote: And then on top of that you can't even get your math right and you're not even close.

28 + 9 = 37 total ops........ 28 / 37 * 100 = 76% SV ...... 100 - 76 = 24% BS ..... you're off by 8%
25 + 9 = 34 total ops........ 25 / 34 * 100 = 74% SV ...... 100 - 74 = 26% BS ..... you're off by a whopping 10%

You failed to get simple percentage math calculations correct. That is a fact no one can refute. Given that, I guess I can't expect you to understand more complex statistical analysis.


28/37 * 100= 7600% (more accurately 7568%) not 76%. Take out the % or the * 100.

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby slink » Sat May 02, 2009 10:37 am

Any recent news on when BJ Ryan is expected to be back?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby nolanwood » Sat May 02, 2009 11:11 am

wildbill wrote:You trashed me for presenting the numbers in the most logical way and yet it appears you have no problem giving numbers another way. There's a word for that. And then on top of that you can't even get your math right and you're not even close.

28 + 9 = 37 total ops........ 28 / 37 * 100 = 76% SV ...... 100 - 76 = 24% BS ..... you're off by 8%
25 + 9 = 34 total ops........ 25 / 34 * 100 = 74% SV ...... 100 - 74 = 26% BS ..... you're off by a whopping 10%
Add the 3 seasons together you get 79% SV and 21% BS. I've already said this before.

You failed to get simple percentage math calculations correct. That is a fact no one can refute. Given that, I guess I can't expect you to understand more complex statistical analysis. You don't seem to understand that if you're going to count BS in Hold situations you have to count holds with saves, otherwise you have an unbalanced equation that gives you bogus statistics. You don't seem to have the math background to understand that and I don't know how else to explain it in simpler terms. At any rate using the balanced equation his BS % was under 20% and his lead preservation rate was 80.6% to this point in his career. I don't think it would be valuable to continue arguing with you when you have demonstrated you don't have the math background to understand more complicated analysis. It's no big deal, this kind of math isn't everyone's cup of tea. For my particular field of work I had to take lots of higher level math. If there's anything I can do to help you understand this let me know. Even though you wrongly trashed me I'm, willing to help if I can.

BTW for future reference I see where you made your mistakes. You did the calculation as BS / SV * 100. That's where you went wrong. You should have used this formula.... BS / (SV + BS) * 100. That is of course only valid in the years where he had no Holds.


mod edited
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Sat May 02, 2009 11:20 am

wow why is it that the closers thread brings out the worst in people here at the cafe?

i wish we could somehow vote to keep some people out of this thread...
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby da bears » Sat May 02, 2009 11:37 am

Nerd Alert. Why would anyone care what you got in Calc and what does Calc have to do with statistics???

RHP Joel Hanrahan struck out two in the ninth inning, needing just 10 pitches to get through three hitters. Hanrahan lost his closer's job Tuesday after blowing his third save of the season Monday, but Acta said the team is trying to rehabilitate Hanrahan's confidence to get back in the role. "He's the ideal guy at the end of the game," Acta said. "Little by little, he'll have the opportunity to get back."

Looks like poster before is definitely correct on Hanrahan probably getting his job back at some point probably sooner than later. That's one brutal bulpen but they will definitely get plenty of save ops considering the lack of offense.

Who else is there in Colorado besides Street/Corpas?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Wright2Reyes » Sat May 02, 2009 11:52 am

slink wrote:Any recent news on when BJ Ryan is expected to be back?


I think you're in the wrong thread, please take that nonsense somewhere else.

oh wait....
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Amazinz » Sat May 02, 2009 12:01 pm

Enough with the crazy argument, please, or take it to PMs.
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