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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Montana168 » Sat May 02, 2009 12:56 am

i think fuentes would have been given a shorter leash right now if shields or arredondo were pitching lights out...but their not. arredondo was assumed to be the closer going into this year before the halos signed fuentes, but arredondo has been equally as bad as fuentes. as long as shields and arredondo continue to struggle as much as fuentes, fuentes will keep the job.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby dissent » Sat May 02, 2009 12:57 am

CadensDad wrote:Honestly if your looking towards the Nationals bullpen to help you in saves on your fantasy team, you might as well call it quits for the year.

(Nothing personal, just don't get the "fuss" over who is closing in Washington when they most likely wont even win 60 games.

Are you kidding? Have you already forgotten the 3-year stretch Chad Cordero had with the Nats? Those teams were awful too, albeit slightly better than today's Nats. What about Soria last year for an awful Royals team? I won leagues with both of them.

Losing teams are great places to find cheap saves. As someone already said here, they get more chances in close games.

I think the WA situation is definitely worth keeping an eye on.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby metsfan12 » Sat May 02, 2009 12:59 am

dissent wrote:
CadensDad wrote:Honestly if your looking towards the Nationals bullpen to help you in saves on your fantasy team, you might as well call it quits for the year.

(Nothing personal, just don't get the "fuss" over who is closing in Washington when they most likely wont even win 60 games.

Are you kidding? Have you already forgotten the 3-year stretch Chad Cordero had with the Nats? Those teams were awful too, albeit slightly better than today's Nats. What about Soria last year for an awful Royals team? I won leagues with both of them.

Losing teams are great places to find cheap saves. As someone already said here, they get more chances in close games.

I think the WA situation is definitely worth keeping an eye on.


And if one of those bums learns how to close out a game they might win a few more.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby BitterDodgerFan » Sat May 02, 2009 1:03 am

anyone see hanrahan getting his job back soon? there are no other decent options and it will be pretty clear hanrahan is their best bet despite his early struggles. he pitched well tonight and a few more outings like that would give him the role back, no?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby kemper5 » Sat May 02, 2009 1:22 am

Something Fishy is going on in SEA and OAK with their closers..No way Springer should have been in their tonight after last nights near meltdown in TEX, but tonight the put him in again only to load the bases and give the Mariners the W with a bases loaded single..NICE!! The Mysterious Illness with Zeigler, once again NO where to be found..Whats it been 1 week since pitching?? And whats with Morrow, he has not pitched in over a week (going on 9 days)??? Im willing to bet both Zeigler and Morrow end up DL bound or at least 1 does..
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby mac-unit » Sat May 02, 2009 2:36 am

kemper5 wrote:Something Fishy is going on in SEA and OAK with their closers..No way Springer should have been in their tonight after last nights near meltdown in TEX, but tonight the put him in again only to load the bases and give the Mariners the W with a bases loaded single..NICE!! The Mysterious Illness with Zeigler, once again NO where to be found..Whats it been 1 week since pitching?? And whats with Morrow, he has not pitched in over a week (going on 9 days)??? Im willing to bet both Zeigler and Morrow end up DL bound or at least 1 does..

Morrow is DTD with a shoulder injury. Ziegler is said to be DTD, but there's really no info besides that he is sick. I think Morrow is about ready to come back or they would have put him on the DL. Since it didn't happen yet, I don't think Ziegler will land on the DL either but I have no idea what he has.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Onions » Sat May 02, 2009 3:45 am

kemper5 wrote:Something Fishy is going on in SEA and OAK with their closers..No way Springer should have been in their tonight after last nights near meltdown in TEX, but tonight the put him in again only to load the bases and give the Mariners the W with a bases loaded single..NICE!! The Mysterious Illness with Zeigler, once again NO where to be found..Whats it been 1 week since pitching?? And whats with Morrow, he has not pitched in over a week (going on 9 days)??? Im willing to bet both Zeigler and Morrow end up DL bound or at least 1 does..


???

There was no save situation for either team in tonight's ballgame. The game was tied 7-7 from the top of the 7th until the game ended.

I think you are looking for something that's not really there. Perhaps there are issues with Ziegler and/or Morrow, but tonight's game didn't offer us any clues or answers.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby wildbill » Sat May 02, 2009 5:04 am

nolanwood wrote:
wildbill wrote:Ok if you want to count all blown saves even if the occurred when he was a setup man (could be termed blown holds)then you must count all non-blown saves which would be saves + holds. So that's 47 BS and 195 non-BS, which is an 80.6% lead preservation rate. What do you know, that's about the same as his save rate in the 3 years he spent a significant portion of his time as closer. Either you have to look at what he did as a closer or you have to look at all the numbers whether he was a closer or not. You can't take only saves and then take BS that occurred while he was working as a setup man. You number manipulation is far more flawed do to your unbalanced equation. You can't combine unrelated data from one side of the equation and not do it for the other side as well and expect it to mean anything useful, but apparently you do.


Flawed logic? :-D ;-D

Fair enough. Let's look at what he did as a closer.

2000 : became closer a couple months into the season. 14 saves, o blown

2001: 28 saves, 9 blown (32% blown)

2004: 25 saves, 9 blown (36% blown)

Two of his three seasons as a closer he's blown nearly 1/3 of his saves. Those #'s are relatively close to his career bs rate of nearly 40% that you are defending. :-?

You trashed me for presenting the numbers in the most logical way and yet it appears you have no problem giving numbers another way. There's a word for that. And then on top of that you can't even get your math right and you're not even close.

28 + 9 = 37 total ops........ 28 / 37 * 100 = 76% SV ...... 100 - 76 = 24% BS ..... you're off by 8%
25 + 9 = 34 total ops........ 25 / 34 * 100 = 74% SV ...... 100 - 74 = 26% BS ..... you're off by a whopping 10%
Add the 3 seasons together you get 79% SV and 21% BS. I've already said this before.

You failed to get simple percentage math calculations correct. That is a fact no one can refute. Given that, I guess I can't expect you to understand more complex statistical analysis. You don't seem to understand that if you're going to count BS in Hold situations you have to count holds with saves, otherwise you have an unbalanced equation that gives you bogus statistics. You don't seem to have the math background to understand that and I don't know how else to explain it in simpler terms. At any rate using the balanced equation his BS % was under 20% and his lead preservation rate was 80.6% to this point in his career. I don't think it would be valuable to continue arguing with you when you have demonstrated you don't have the math background to understand more complicated analysis. It's no big deal, this kind of math isn't everyone's cup of tea. For my particular field of work I had to take lots of higher level math. If there's anything I can do to help you understand this let me know. Even though you wrongly trashed me I'm, willing to help if I can.

BTW for future reference I see where you made your mistakes. You did the calculation as BS / SV * 100. That's where you went wrong. You should have used this formula.... BS / (SV + BS) * 100. That is of course only valid in the years where he had no Holds.
Last edited by wildbill on Sat May 02, 2009 5:11 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby wildbill » Sat May 02, 2009 5:08 am

From Rotoworld:
Joe Beimel-R- Nationals May. 2 - 2:35 am et

Joe Beimel (hip) gave up five runs and seven hits in one inning Friday in his first rehab appearance for Single-A Potomac.
What do you know? He's already pitching like he's the Nationals' closer. Beimel was set to return after two appearances in the minors, but he'll need to be a whole lot better next time out if he expects the team to stick with that plan.

And some of you think that's solid closer material? Might as well sign Turnbow too at that rate.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Halo Homers » Sat May 02, 2009 5:29 am

Niffoc4 wrote:With Felipe Paulino moving to the pen, could he be next in line behind Hawkins? Seems like he could be as good a bet as one of the lesser Washington options


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What do people think about Paulino? Guy has a K/9 of about 7 and K/BB over 3 so far this year. Out with injuries most of last year. Had high 90s heat before injury. Worth a flyer with Valverde out?
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