wildbill wrote:Ok if you want to count all blown saves even if the occurred when he was a setup man (could be termed blown holds)then you must count all non-blown saves which would be saves + holds. So that's 47 BS and 195 non-BS, which is an 80.6% lead preservation rate. What do you know, that's about the same as his save rate in the 3 years he spent a significant portion of his time as closer. Either you have to look at what he did as a closer or you have to look at all the numbers whether he was a closer or not. You can't take only saves and then take BS that occurred while he was working as a setup man. You number manipulation is far more flawed do to your unbalanced equation. You can't combine unrelated data from one side of the equation and not do it for the other side as well and expect it to mean anything useful, but apparently you do.
Fair enough. Let's look at what he did as a closer
2000 : became closer a couple months into the season. 14 saves, o blown
2001: 28 saves, 9 blown (32% blown)
2004: 25 saves, 9 blown (36% blown)
Two of his three seasons as a closer he's blown nearly 1/3 of his saves. Those #'s are relatively close to his career bs rate of nearly 40% that you are defending.
You trashed me for presenting the numbers in the most logical way and yet it appears you have no problem giving numbers another way. There's a word for that. And then on top of that you can't even get your math right and you're not even close.
28 + 9 = 37 total ops........ 28 / 37 * 100 = 76% SV ...... 100 - 76 = 24% BS ..... you're off by 8%
25 + 9 = 34 total ops........ 25 / 34 * 100 = 74% SV ...... 100 - 74 = 26% BS ..... you're off by a whopping 10%
Add the 3 seasons together you get 79% SV and 21% BS. I've already said this before.
You failed to get simple percentage math calculations correct. That is a fact no one can refute. Given that, I guess I can't expect you to understand more complex statistical analysis. You don't seem to understand that if you're going to count BS in Hold situations you have to count holds with saves, otherwise you have an unbalanced equation that gives you bogus statistics. You don't seem to have the math background to understand that and I don't know how else to explain it in simpler terms. At any rate using the balanced equation his BS % was under 20% and his lead preservation rate was 80.6% to this point in his career. I don't think it would be valuable to continue arguing with you when you have demonstrated you don't have the math background to understand more complicated analysis. It's no big deal, this kind of math isn't everyone's cup of tea. For my particular field of work I had to take lots of higher level math. If there's anything I can do to help you understand this let me know. Even though you wrongly trashed me I'm, willing to help if I can.
BTW for future reference I see where you made your mistakes. You did the calculation as BS / SV * 100. That's where you went wrong. You should have used this formula.... BS / (SV + BS) * 100. That is of course only valid in the years where he had no Holds.
Last edited by wildbill on Sat May 02, 2009 5:11 am, edited 2 times in total.