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2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby wildbill » Fri May 01, 2009 8:20 pm

nolanwood wrote:
wildbill wrote:You're right about Hawkins history in the closer role, but I'd still take him over any RP in Washington. At least you know Hawkins has the ability to be decent, he just needs to stay focused when he's pitching in the 9th.


Your opinion on the closer situation in Washington is well documented in this thread...you think they should be avoided.

I think the scenario in Washington is ideal for fantasy managers to monitor. A sub-par team can be a nice place to look for saves because their wins are generally close in nature. This is the perfect opportunity for someone like Beimel (an easy free agent pickup) to snag you a nice amount of saves with a respectable era. Yes, his lower K rate, whip and .baa could all point to trouble in that role; however, I'd still take that gamble any day of the week (interesting to note that aside from the K rate, Latroy's career #'s for .baa, era, and whip are higher than Beimel).

We already know Latroy makes a turdy closer...78 career saves, 47 blown saves. He's blown nearly 40% of his saves. That sounds like a bigger gamble to me, especially for a guy who is only a fill-in.

First, you don't need to be putting words in my mouth to argue against me. Please quote me where I said to avoid the washington situation completely. I've stated over and over it should be the last place to look, but I never said to avoid it completely.

You're failing to consider a number of things. You need to take a closer look at the numbers. Hawkins has only 3 seasons where he had 10 or more combined SV and BS. So you can throw out all those other seasons because odds are most of the BS were in a setup role. You do know a setup man can be charged with a BS don't you? Doing that it's only fair to throw out the saves in those years too because odds are they came in situations where the closer wasn't available for a night here or there. So in those other 3 years where it would seem he likely closed for a significant stretch of time he had 67 SV and 18 BS for a 79% conversion rate. Not elite, but not too bad. Better then anything out of Washington so far. Now in this situation you know he;s only closer as long as Valverde is out, but that's supposed to be at least 3 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats are still playing your turn to blow a save in 3 weeks.

Now as for Beimel, you have no idea what he'll do, but it probably won't be that good. Going back to what Karabell said, he's never been considered a late inning closer type before. Odds are, again based on what Karabell said, he has likely been used in matchup situations in which he's likely to succeed. Do you think he's going to have the same success in a closer situation where he's got to face whoever is coming up whether its an ideal matchup or not? Maybe he could succeed but it seems like a prime situation for fantastic failure. Hey if you're desperate go ahead take the risk, I'm not saying you shouldn't, but if you're not desperate for saves is it worth the high risk to your other stats? As I've said if you're desperate then you probably have no choice but to go for it.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby nolanwood » Fri May 01, 2009 8:27 pm

wildbill wrote:
nolanwood wrote:
wildbill wrote:You're right about Hawkins history in the closer role, but I'd still take him over any RP in Washington. At least you know Hawkins has the ability to be decent, he just needs to stay focused when he's pitching in the 9th.


Your opinion on the closer situation in Washington is well documented in this thread...you think they should be avoided.

I think the scenario in Washington is ideal for fantasy managers to monitor. A sub-par team can be a nice place to look for saves because their wins are generally close in nature. This is the perfect opportunity for someone like Beimel (an easy free agent pickup) to snag you a nice amount of saves with a respectable era. Yes, his lower K rate, whip and .baa could all point to trouble in that role; however, I'd still take that gamble any day of the week (interesting to note that aside from the K rate, Latroy's career #'s for .baa, era, and whip are higher than Beimel).

We already know Latroy makes a turdy closer...78 career saves, 47 blown saves. He's blown nearly 40% of his saves. That sounds like a bigger gamble to me, especially for a guy who is only a fill-in.

First, you don't need to be putting words in my mouth to argue against me. Please quote me where I said to avoid the washington situation completely. I've stated over and over it should be the last place to look, but I never said to avoid it completely.

You're failing to consider a number of things. You need to take a closer look at the numbers. Hawkins has only 3 seasons where he had 10 or more combined SV and BS. So you can throw out all those other seasons because odds are most of the BS were in a setup role. You do know a setup man can be charged with a BS don't you? Doing that it's only fair to throw out the saves in those years too because odds are they came in situations where the closer wasn't available for a night here or there. So in those other 3 years where it would seem he likely closed for a significant stretch of time he had 67 SV and 18 BS for a 79% conversion rate. Not elite, but not too bad. Better then anything out of Washington so far. Now in this situation you know he;s only closer as long as Valverde is out, but that's supposed to be at least 3 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats are still playing your turn to blow a save in 3 weeks.

Now as for Beimel, you have no idea what he'll do, but it probably won't be that good. Going back to what Karabell said, he's never been considered a late inning closer type before. Odds are, again based on what Karabell said, he has likely been used in matchup situations in which he's likely to succeed. Do you think he's going to have the same success in a closer situation where he's got to face whoever is coming up whether its an ideal matchup or not? Maybe he could succeed but it seems like a prime situation for fantastic failure. Hey if you're desperate go ahead take the risk, I'm not saying you shouldn't, but if you're not desperate for saves is it worth the high risk to your other stats? As I've said if you're desperate then you probably have no choice but to go for it.


I ceased reading your response after the bolded portion - do you feel the use of condescension strengthens your argument? I don't.

It's easy to only use the #'s that support your argument...a blown save is a blown save.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri May 01, 2009 9:37 pm

A blown save isn't a blown save when it was never going to be a save in the first place. He has a 79% conversion rate as a closer which is all that matters.

Just stay away from him in September. !+)
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby deanpapelbon » Fri May 01, 2009 11:25 pm

Anyone think Fuentes has a very short leash after tonight? Is is he hurt? I thought going into this year that he'd be a beast after his stat line from the past 3 years combined with moving to the team that had the most opps over that same amount of time and all he's done is kill my ratios.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby Niffoc4 » Fri May 01, 2009 11:32 pm

With Felipe Paulino moving to the pen, could he be next in line behind Hawkins? Seems like he could be as good a bet as one of the lesser Washington options
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby wildbill » Sat May 02, 2009 12:09 am

nolanwood wrote:
wildbill wrote:
nolanwood wrote:
Your opinion on the closer situation in Washington is well documented in this thread...you think they should be avoided.

I think the scenario in Washington is ideal for fantasy managers to monitor. A sub-par team can be a nice place to look for saves because their wins are generally close in nature. This is the perfect opportunity for someone like Beimel (an easy free agent pickup) to snag you a nice amount of saves with a respectable era. Yes, his lower K rate, whip and .baa could all point to trouble in that role; however, I'd still take that gamble any day of the week (interesting to note that aside from the K rate, Latroy's career #'s for .baa, era, and whip are higher than Beimel).

We already know Latroy makes a turdy closer...78 career saves, 47 blown saves. He's blown nearly 40% of his saves. That sounds like a bigger gamble to me, especially for a guy who is only a fill-in.

First, you don't need to be putting words in my mouth to argue against me. Please quote me where I said to avoid the washington situation completely. I've stated over and over it should be the last place to look, but I never said to avoid it completely.

You're failing to consider a number of things. You need to take a closer look at the numbers. Hawkins has only 3 seasons where he had 10 or more combined SV and BS. So you can throw out all those other seasons because odds are most of the BS were in a setup role. You do know a setup man can be charged with a BS don't you? Doing that it's only fair to throw out the saves in those years too because odds are they came in situations where the closer wasn't available for a night here or there. So in those other 3 years where it would seem he likely closed for a significant stretch of time he had 67 SV and 18 BS for a 79% conversion rate. Not elite, but not too bad. Better then anything out of Washington so far. Now in this situation you know he;s only closer as long as Valverde is out, but that's supposed to be at least 3 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats are still playing your turn to blow a save in 3 weeks.

Now as for Beimel, you have no idea what he'll do, but it probably won't be that good. Going back to what Karabell said, he's never been considered a late inning closer type before. Odds are, again based on what Karabell said, he has likely been used in matchup situations in which he's likely to succeed. Do you think he's going to have the same success in a closer situation where he's got to face whoever is coming up whether its an ideal matchup or not? Maybe he could succeed but it seems like a prime situation for fantastic failure. Hey if you're desperate go ahead take the risk, I'm not saying you shouldn't, but if you're not desperate for saves is it worth the high risk to your other stats? As I've said if you're desperate then you probably have no choice but to go for it.


I ceased reading your response after the bolded portion - do you feel the use of condescension strengthens your argument? I don't.

It's easy to only use the #'s that support your argument...a blown save is a blown save.

Really? Seriously I just figured you didn't know that or you'd know your argument was flawed. I mean not everyone knows that about BS. I really did think you were one of those people. It would explain why you decided on a factless ridicule style response, because it totally debunks your argument.

It's easy to only use the #'s that support your argument

I find that part of your response extremely amusing and hypocritical since that's exactly what you did. The only difference is you used rather flawed logic by not balancing your equation. I'll explain below.

a blown save is a blown save

Ok if you want to count all blown saves even if the occurred when he was a setup man (could be termed blown holds)then you must count all non-blown saves which would be saves + holds. So that's 47 BS and 195 non-BS, which is an 80.6% lead preservation rate. What do you know, that's about the same as his save rate in the 3 years he spent a significant portion of his time as closer. Either you have to look at what he did as a closer or you have to look at all the numbers whether he was a closer or not. You can't take only saves and then take BS that occurred while he was working as a setup man. You number manipulation is far more flawed do to your unbalanced equation. You can't combine unrelated data from one side of the equation and not do it for the other side as well and expect it to mean anything useful, but apparently you do.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby CadensDad » Sat May 02, 2009 12:11 am

Niffoc4 wrote:With Felipe Paulino moving to the pen, could he be next in line behind Hawkins? Seems like he could be as good a bet as one of the lesser Washington options


Honestly if your looking towards the Nationals bullpen to help you in saves on your fantasy team, you might as well call it quits for the year.

(Nothing personal, just don't get the "fuss" over who is closing in Washington when they most likely wont even win 60 games.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby deanpapelbon » Sat May 02, 2009 12:18 am

Dudes, whats with all the testosterone. You are wasting everybody's time and giving this thread an even worse name.

Whats the deal with Brian Fuentes other than the fact that he's an as*hole. Is he gonna go the way of the dodo? Is he still having back trouble?
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby metsfan12 » Sat May 02, 2009 12:30 am

rentz wrote:
Millhouse wrote:Any word on the Lidge throwing session? Madson immediately becomes verrrry valuable if Lidge hits the DL, obviously.


thats what ive been waiting to hear, if lidge goes to the dl madson becomes a very hot pickup. i'd rather go with him over hawkins but if lidge doesnt hit the dl hawkins it is.


Lidge apparently threw 30 pitches pain free and is available for tomorrow's game. I am holding Madson anyway.
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Re: 2009 Closers Thread (No Game Commentary Please)

Postby nolanwood » Sat May 02, 2009 12:31 am

wildbill wrote:Ok if you want to count all blown saves even if the occurred when he was a setup man (could be termed blown holds)then you must count all non-blown saves which would be saves + holds. So that's 47 BS and 195 non-BS, which is an 80.6% lead preservation rate. What do you know, that's about the same as his save rate in the 3 years he spent a significant portion of his time as closer. Either you have to look at what he did as a closer or you have to look at all the numbers whether he was a closer or not. You can't take only saves and then take BS that occurred while he was working as a setup man. You number manipulation is far more flawed do to your unbalanced equation. You can't combine unrelated data from one side of the equation and not do it for the other side as well and expect it to mean anything useful, but apparently you do.


Flawed logic? :-D ;-D

Fair enough. Let's look at what he did as a closer.

2000 : became closer a couple months into the season. 14 saves, o blown

2001: 28 saves, 9 blown (32% blown)

2004: 25 saves, 9 blown (36% blown)

Two of his three seasons as a closer he's blown nearly 1/3 of his saves. Those #'s are relatively close to his career bs rate of nearly 40% that you are defending. :-?
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