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How do you project players?

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How do you project players?

Postby Polar Bear » Wed Feb 11, 2009 1:22 pm

I have been playing fantasy baseball for a few years now and have always depended n magazines and websites for my projections. Then I come here and so many people do their own projections, which I find interesting. However, I have no idea where to start when it comes to projecting players.

Some tips would be great. Is there some type of formula you use when projecting players?

Thanks.
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby Mike_nyc » Wed Feb 11, 2009 3:14 pm

I respect the projections of hq and bp, while also keeping an eye on CHONE and Marcel.

I usually take the four and develop a base case projection, along with a best and worst case. In addition to factoring in the projections each service provides I throw in some gut feeling as well as heavy consideration to component skils (which i really got into for the first time this year).
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby J35J » Wed Feb 11, 2009 3:50 pm

I'm one that doesn't go off anyone elses predictions/projections/rankings....I'm not sure I could play this game if I didn't do this stuff myself...I'm a different cat though I guess.

Just start at 1 position and go down the line.

First up...Brian McCann
..pull up his career stats as well as his minor league stats...
...go over his numbers with an emphasis on the last couple years..
...see what his career highs and career lows are...
...see how he is trending...
...do you expect him to continue to improve, stay about the same, decline....
...how does his injury history look...
...take his age into account...
...take his team/park/division into account...
...take his lineup spot into account...
...take what you know about McCann just by watching him play...
...take what you know about the game of baseball...
...now put numbers on paper...

Second up...Joe Mauer
...repeat above...
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby Inukchuk » Wed Feb 11, 2009 4:24 pm

I'm not sure if this is what you're looking for, but I project my guys similarly to J, although I tend to average my projections with others in order to eliminate my own bias to a certain extent.

When it comes to ranking players, I calculate the mean and standard deviation value of every category, then determine the number of standard deviations from the mean (above or below) in each category. I add up total sd's and that's a player's score. The higher the score, the higher the rank.

I like this way because it allows me to compare not only 2 hitters or 2 pitchers, but one of each.

I know it's nerdy, but it really gives a clear picture of value in 5x5 leagues. !+)
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby WyldStallyn » Wed Feb 11, 2009 5:03 pm

miss cleo has never failed me :-D

i used to do my own projections using a custom formula that i was constantly tweaking, but havent had time this year (engagement, working in retail, house shopping). so ive been looking at various projections and rankings out there (chone, marcel, sportsline, etc) and doing my own projs for guys who have more upside or downside (mostly rookies or older players who struggled last year)
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby CadensDad » Wed Feb 11, 2009 5:18 pm

I right a bunch of projections down, then on a another sheet of paper write down the names of all the players then draw numbers and assign each player the stats according to the number you drew for that player
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby jake_harv88 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 6:02 pm

J35J wrote:I'm one that doesn't go off anyone elses predictions/projections/rankings....I'm not sure I could play this game if I didn't do this stuff myself...I'm a different cat though I guess.

Just start at 1 position and go down the line.

First up...Brian McCann
..pull up his career stats as well as his minor league stats...
...go over his numbers with an emphasis on the last couple years..
...see what his career highs and career lows are...
...see how he is trending...
...do you expect him to continue to improve, stay about the same, decline....
...how does his injury history look...
...take his age into account...
...take his team/park/division into account...
...take his lineup spot into account...
...take what you know about McCann just by watching him play...
...take what you know about the game of baseball...
...now put numbers on paper...

Second up...Joe Mauer
...repeat above...


This is how I roll. Its all about the making your best educated guess with the information at hand... ;-D
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby hot4tx » Wed Feb 11, 2009 6:13 pm

I usually wait until all of the major websites and magazines projections have come out and then cut/paste J35J's projections into excel and ignore the others. :-D
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby Grouperman941 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 10:23 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:
J35J wrote:I'm one that doesn't go off anyone elses predictions/projections/rankings....I'm not sure I could play this game if I didn't do this stuff myself...I'm a different cat though I guess.

Just start at 1 position and go down the line.

First up...Brian McCann
..pull up his career stats as well as his minor league stats...
...go over his numbers with an emphasis on the last couple years..
...see what his career highs and career lows are...
...see how he is trending...
...do you expect him to continue to improve, stay about the same, decline....
...how does his injury history look...
...take his age into account...
...take his team/park/division into account...
...take his lineup spot into account...
...take what you know about McCann just by watching him play...
...take what you know about the game of baseball...
...now put numbers on paper...

Second up...Joe Mauer
...repeat above...


This is how I roll. Its all about the making your best educated guess with the information at hand... ;-D


This is what I do, too, except I also review what the other sites are projecting. Once you've done it a few years, a lot of the players are done quick, as you have studied them before. ;-D

edit: I project 'ranges for each cat -- .290-.300 15-20 HR, for example -- instead of a specific stat line projection. I assign values to each projected range to give me a basis for comparison across players.
Be excellent to each other.
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Re: How do you project players?

Postby DaShiz23 » Wed Feb 11, 2009 11:34 pm

The above methods are pretty much how I do it. I can never find enough projections/ifo to satisfy me. My only problem is I have a tough time comparing hitters to pitchers, rank-wise. I've never participated in a points league, and believe this would be the best way to compare pitchers to position players, but I tend to have ranking for the two, and use mostly gut instinct about where the two intersect. On top of my gut, I also use average dollar values, tiers, and ADPs from a wide aray of sources to fit the pitchers in.
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