In a keeper I like this deal for you. Carlos Lee is still consistent for 30/100/.300 although he is getting older. I believe after his shoulder gets right, Upton's power will resurface. We already know he has the speed to steal 40+ bags. A line of 100/25/90/40/.280 is very attainable in his future.
Hal·la·day, n. 1. every fifth day in Philadelphia. 2. a day of rest for the bullpen. 3. innings eater. 4. doc. 5. ace.
As Beltran gets older, he will lose some of that speed, but still be someone that will be on your keeper list. Going will Upton here will negate that loss of his SBs. I think either way your line-up still has to be at the top or near it for this year. Down the road, by having Upton, you guarantee the line-up still odes that for you.
BTW, do you have contracts for these guys, or do you get to keep 8 guys every year, no matter whom?
I think Upton is the way to go. Lee has been consistent but I think Upton will post better numbers this year. He is also considerably more tradeable down the line.
From what I've read, it sounds like Lee will be on the decline and Upton will be (and is) on the rise. Hopefully his injury won't be an issue and he won't be a one year wonder.