ya but i'd much ratherhave a guy hit .275 with 35-40 hrs than a guy hit .220 with 50
Ender wrote:Sexson's career was derailed by a major injury so having as much talent as pre-injury Sexson is a compliment. That guy could just mash before the injury.
by Pedros Little Friend » Mon Mar 16, 2009 4:19 pm
i love disagreement.
first off, he hit 36 home runs last year, not 32 as the previous poster mentioned. and i'm not saying he's a horrible value where he's going, but i still think he's overrated by a few of rounds. on dbacksrback's comparison, the way i see it, teixeira's numbers have nowhere to go but up on the yankees (besides maybe his average, and of course, barring injury). but there's no way, absolutely none, that agone posts the same or better numbers than he did last year.
he's overrated because he had the best season of his career, because he's young, and because his counting stats have been trending up the last few years. most people see those things and make the seemingly logical inference that he'll keep getting better. but if you spend more time and delve a bit deeper you'll see that some of his skills, including contact rate and his average versus lefties, have been trending down.
besides those trends and other things i've mentioned in previous posts, i'll add a couple more reasons he won't put up the numbers most seem to be expecting from him (i.e. what he did last year) based on where he's going (still right around pick 35). 1 - he hit an inordinately high .325 with runners in scoring position which inflated his rbi total. and 2 - have you seen the padres' lineup? gerut, giles, gonzalez, kouzmanoff, headley, rodriguez, hunley, eckstein, pitcher. ouch. sure, he put up good numbers with a similarly bad lineup last year, but the odds are not in his favor.
again, i'm not saying he falls off the planet, but expecting numbers closer to what he did in '07 is a more prudent move than hoping for a repeat of his '08 stats or better. i just wouldn't touch him close to where he's being drafted.
first off, he hit 36 home runs last year, not 32 as the previous poster mentioned. and i'm not saying he's a horrible value where he's going, but i still think he's overrated by a few of rounds. on dbacksrback's comparison, the way i see it, teixeira's numbers have nowhere to go but up on the yankees (besides maybe his average, and of course, barring injury). but there's no way, absolutely none, that agone posts the same or better numbers than he did last year.
he's overrated because he had the best season of his career, because he's young, and because his counting stats have been trending up the last few years. most people see those things and make the seemingly logical inference that he'll keep getting better. but if you spend more time and delve a bit deeper you'll see that some of his skills, including contact rate and his average versus lefties, have been trending down.
besides those trends and other things i've mentioned in previous posts, i'll add a couple more reasons he won't put up the numbers most seem to be expecting from him (i.e. what he did last year) based on where he's going (still right around pick 35). 1 - he hit an inordinately high .325 with runners in scoring position which inflated his rbi total. and 2 - have you seen the padres' lineup? gerut, giles, gonzalez, kouzmanoff, headley, rodriguez, hunley, eckstein, pitcher. ouch. sure, he put up good numbers with a similarly bad lineup last year, but the odds are not in his favor.
again, i'm not saying he falls off the planet, but expecting numbers closer to what he did in '07 is a more prudent move than hoping for a repeat of his '08 stats or better. i just wouldn't touch him close to where he's being drafted.
The funny thing about your argument is A Gon was a top 30 player last season. Yet he is being drafted in the top 50 this season. Even if you don't think his stats will improve you have to admit he is as close to a lock at 1st base for 30, 100, 100 as it gets. With the potential to explode, grabbing a player with his potential at pick 45-50 is no where near overrated. I believe he is going to be one of the steals of the draft this season.
by Pedros Little Friend » Mon Mar 16, 2009 9:45 pm
activechamp2006 wrote:The funny thing about your argument is A Gon was a top 30 player last season. Yet he is being drafted in the top 50 this season. Even if you don't think his stats will improve you have to admit he is as close to a lock at 1st base for 30, 100, 100 as it gets. With the potential to explode, grabbing a player with his potential at pick 45-50 is no where near overrated. I believe he is going to be one of the steals of the draft this season.
i can't find 2008 rankings, and i don't have all my materials from last year on my new computer, but there's no way he was a top 30 player last year. he's not even a top 30 player this year. and even if you meant to write top 50, i don't think he cracked that in many, if any, rankings. i seem to remember him at around 70-80 or so, but please correct me if i'm wrong. regardless, at a certain point, we're splitting hairs. you said he's not a bad pick at 45-50. i'm saying he's going too high at 35. i'd put him around 55 or so. i would draft him where slayer got him. but either way, i don't see his potential to explode, unless of course he gets traded.
perhaps he is close to a lock for 30/100/100 (though i bet he falls short in runs). that's valuable, no doubt, but first base is deep and there are a lot of guys who can net you similar value (if not 30/100/100 exactly) in later rounds like dunn, delgado, atkins, huff, votto, davis, d lee, c pena. i'd probably rather have agone than all of them (although i think votto and dunn are right there with him and maybe davis, though i'm pretty suspect of him too). it's easily worth it, in my opinion, to wait a few more rounds before grabbing a first baseman.
i'm just trying to point out that he's a guy for whom people are focusing too much on last year's numbers and not enough on his underlying skills and opportunity (or lack thereof i should say with that lineup and park). increasing counting stat trends don't always portend better numbers the following year. it sounds simple, but it's obviously not based on where i see him ranked. i see almost no way he ends up being a steal this year at his current ADP.
by Pedros Little Friend » Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:58 pm
rookies and cream wrote:AGone was 30 on Yahoo and 37th (hitter) on ESPN last year.
ahhh, i thought activechamp was talking about his ADP from last year, not his end of the year rank. still, it doesn't change anything for me.
and he was 54th overall on the espn player rater for '08. i have no idea how those things are calculated and why there's such a disparity between yahoo and espn. which formats do they use, what's the league depth, do they use standing gains points or just straight ratios between the categories? all of these things would be nice to know.
and you know what, i just noticed that his ADP for espn leagues is 53. on rookies' mdp report, it's 42 with a pretty large standard deviation (from 31-59). i guess i shouldn't be too surprised this post garnered some interest. i suppose i'd take him lower than most, so i won't be getting him in many redraft leagues this year, but i still like the guy, despite the bashing. i have him in a keeper.
just trying to help give some (read: my) perspective.
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by Skimo77 » Sat Mar 14, 2009 7:22 pm 
