I have done 3 drafts to this point....and in each of them...I have Adrian as my lst baseman. I have gotten him with the 45th, 46th, and 50th picks. Funny thing is....I went into each of those drafts without planning to draft Adrian. But lst Basemen have been flying off the board so fast...it came to the point that I dare not wait another round to take him and risk being "stuck" with Atkins, Davis or Huff.
by Pedros Little Friend » Fri Feb 20, 2009 10:33 am
kweiss wrote:Why is everyone so sure of an Adrian Gonzalez regression?
He's a former 1st overall pick who is just turning 27, and aren't they moving Petco's fences in this year?
huge hr/fb rate spike last year (from 13.5% to 20.7%), his average versus lefties has been falling each of the last 3 years, along with his contract rate, and his fb% tanked in the second half last year, all the way down to 31%.
i don't think we'll see huge regression, and he certainly could get better, but I won't be paying for last year's stats.
also, i read one article about petco's fences being moved in, but it was on some random blog and the writer's informant was someone who happened to see various chalk lines in right field back in october while he was touring the stadium or something. is this really happening? have any major sources even reported the possibility?
My point on Jacobs is you can get him in about the 18th round or later depending on size of league. If he gets 550 at bats, he'll get his 30 HR's. I think he had less than 500 AB last year. Gonzales is at that magic age, but he doesn't have alot of protection. People do think he has potential of Pujols. Late 4th or 5th round is solid.
brotherbird wrote:My point on Jacobs is you can get him in about the late 4th or 5th round depending on size of league. If he gets 550 at bats, he'll get his 30 HR's. I think he had less than 500 AB last year.
Mike Jacobs has no protection, has to adjust to a new league, and Kauffman was worse for power than Dolphins Stadium. Other than that, Jacobs needs no protection, no adjustments, and it doesn't matter what ballpark he hits in.
I also agree Jacobs is worth the late 4th and 5th round pick.
brotherbird wrote:My point on Jacobs is you can get him in about the late 4th or 5th round depending on size of league. If he gets 550 at bats, he'll get his 30 HR's. I think he had less than 500 AB last year.
Mike Jacobs has no protection, has to adjust to a new league, and Kauffman was worse for power than Dolphins Stadium. Other than that, Jacobs needs no protection, no adjustments, and it doesn't matter what ballpark he hits in.
I also agree Jacobs is worth the late 4th and 5th round pick.
brotherbird wrote:My point on Jacobs is you can get him in about the late 4th or 5th round depending on size of league. If he gets 550 at bats, he'll get his 30 HR's. I think he had less than 500 AB last year.
Mike Jacobs has no protection, has to adjust to a new league, and Kauffman was worse for power than Dolphins Stadium. Other than that, Jacobs needs no protection, no adjustments, and it doesn't matter what ballpark he hits in.
I also agree Jacobs is worth the late 4th and 5th round pick.
troublemaker
I think I misquoted the poor guy, in hindsight. Sorry about that:
brotherbird wrote:My point on Jacobs is you can get him in about the late 4th or 5th round depending on size of league. If he gets 550 at bats, he'll get his 30 HR's. I think he had less than 500 AB last year. People do think he has potential of Pujols. Late 4th or 5th round is solid.