Yeah I'm in agreement with just about everyone that the 4 obvious ones are Braun, Pence, V-Mart and Santana.
I do not like Figgins. Ludwick probably isn't for real, but weirder things have happened. Scherzer is just too much of a question mark to me. And that goes for Delmon too. Loney has no real upside. I guess you might even need to consider Burnett, who has the biggest 1 year upside of anyone.
I am going to say Burnett. It pains me, but he could be an 18 game winner with 200 Ks and decent rates. If that is the case, you should be able to flip him to a desperate team more easily than any of the others. Remember, you are probably a year away with that team, so I'd be looking for players that have max trade value later in the season (or even right after the draft). To me, that player is clearly Burnett. If he fails, so what? But he only needs to succeed for a few months to get a huge return for him.
So...Braun, Pence, V-Mart, Santana, and BURNETT!!!!
Braun Pence E.Santana Vmart - I wouldn't normally keep a catcher, but you need to get lucky, Vmart could just be it Scherzer - don't think I keep him either, but I think you need another big payoff to compete
Agree with this, except I'd keep Burnett over Scherzer.
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skmo2345 wrote:> Ryan Braun > Hunter Pence -------------------------------------------- > Ryan Ludwick - gotta take the chance that he is for real > Ervin Santana - hate his inconsistencies, but you've gotta take him > Victor Martinez - he could become an elite catcher once again
Last four cuts were: Max Scherzer, who was just simply a tough cut, Delmon Young, who looks like a complete bust of a prospect, Jon Lester, who I think has already reached his peak, and James Loney, who would be easy to redraft as a lower tiered 1B.
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Do you have an early draft pick? You probably do. Either way, I think I'd avoid giving up draft picks for marginal keepers like Webb. Think about it. Would you rather have Burnett AND your 1st round pick, or Webb? To me it isn't close. That 1st round pick alone will give you someone of Webb's quality, and you'd be losing Burnett (since you'd have to keep Webb instead of him).
Plus, it is my strong opinion that you need to be looking at the future a little more than the present with that keeper squad. Someone is bound to have a couple 1st round types along with 3 good keepers while you're stuck with only one very good keeper (Braun). Your goal should be long term acquiring more top 30 players, not more marginal keepers.
In my opinion there is very little you can do before the draft to help yourself long term (and that is what you should be focused on). The one thing I'd consider, if you were willing to really tank 09 is to trade away several later draft picks (like 3 picks in rounds 5-10 or later) in exchange for one 1st or 2nd round draft pick, or in exchange for 1 legit keeper. Those picks will have a lot of value for 2009, but likely will not become top 30 overall players or anywhere near that in 2010. And since (if you went this route) you'd be tanking 2009 all together, you wouldn't really miss those picks.
Also, if you go that route, you'll need to do a really good job drafting with those first 4/5 or however many picks in the draft you'll have early. Actually, even if don't decide to totally tank 2009, you'll still need to avoid all older players and players with limited upside. Unless there is a huge steal out there when it is your pick, DO NOT take older guys, or guys that have a huge chance to be simply marginal keepers in 2010. As far as later in the draft, you should look for either players that will be highly tradeable during the season, or guys with big upside that may be a little risky (young guys probably). And remember, you are going to have to trade your way to success for 2010. And success means having the best possible 5 keeper group in 2010. Right now you are 1/5 of the way there (Braun). Webb doesn't help that goal really.
Everyone else on the roster will be available later in the draft, these are definitely your most valuable players, IMO. Sure Max has the makeup to be a terrific talent but you can select him later if you like.