First base draft strategy

[drillage]

I've been in a 10 team redraft league for over 15 years now and have had some decent success - won the league 4 times and have cashed every year but one. I've used basically the same draft strategy every year but due to less success over the last couple of years (including my first non-cash) I'm starting to re-think one part of it.

First off, the scoring system is 4x4 but is not typical. Offense uses BA, HR, RBI, and SB. Pitching uses ERA, W-L (2 points for every win, -1 for every loss), K and saves (no WHIP).

Second, the roster is also what i consider not normal. All player stats count, this is not head-to-head. Roster contains:
- 2 at every IF position - C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B
- 5 OF
- 9 P (any combo of SP and RP)

Note - there is no UT or DH position and no position mobility. A player is "assigned" a position and must stay there for the entire year.

One strategy I've always employed is not drafting a 1B until my last 2 picks. In addition to only 20 1B's being drafted, a good portion of AL DH's (Ortiz, Thome, Hafner, etc.) end up at 1B in this league which makes the positon even deeper. In the past if I pick the right guys I can find absolute steals (drafted Morneau in his MVP season) but lately it seems more likely that I end up with guys who are just OK (like Loney last year).

So I guess I have 2 questions.

1) What do people think of this strategy for this league? Does it make sense to wait until the 23rd/24th rounds to fill 1B when you know a guy like Loney will be there?
2) I haven't started ranking my players for this year yet, what does the 20th 1B look like this year (taking into account the AL DH's that will fall into this position)?

[skmo2345]

I use a similar strategy most years in finding 1B. It works well, the gap between the 12th and 25th 1B is usually not that wide, but it's all about identifying the breakout guy. In past years, this was Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, etc. etc. So, I don't think it's a bad strategy at all, especially in your league. Targeting the right guys is easier said than done though. Gotta avoid the Ryan Shealys.

Including DH, any of the players after the top 20 are fine options in deeper leagues:
Conor Jackson
James Loney
Adam LaRoche
Mike Jacobs
Carlos Guillen
Casey Blake
Nick Swisher
Jorge Cantu
Pablo Sandoval
Paul Konerko
Jason Giambi
Casey Kotchman
Billy Butler
Lyle Overbay
Hank Blalock
Ryan Garko
Todd Helton

Most any of these guys will provide solid value, Loney and Jackson especially.