hybrid wrote:Dan Charette wrote:Many think Holliday is now a big risk moving away from Coors. I think he's no risk at all. Your only argument is home/away splits .
Check out these home / away splits .
Wright; Home .336 21 hr's
Away .271 12 hr's
A-Rod Home .334 21 hr's
Away .280 14 hr's
Braun Home .305 23 hr's
Away .266 17 hr's
Howard Home .261 26 hr's
Away .241 21 hr's
Hamilton Home .345 19 hr's
Away .263 13 hr's
Sizemore Home .322 21 hr's
Away .216 12 hr's
Now Holliday Home .322 15 hr's
Away .308 10 hr's
Holliday's road splits are better % wise than all of these elite players.
I guess that means , If I use a home/away argument that Sizemore is not a first round pick. Wasn't he voted the # 1 outfielder in the cafe poll ? How can that be ? He's awful on the road.
Wright was a lot better at home . Shea was a pitchers park. So the type of park doesn't always matter.
That home / away argument about Holliday is lame. Plus the stats you're giving about Holliday are away stats. All the elite players I mentioned before are better at home. Why can't Holliday be better at his new home ?
And to top it off Holliday will be facing pitchers that are as a group much weaker . ( AL west vs. NL West )
So now there should be a new group of Sizemore doubters . The ones that are using home / away splits.
Holliday was the only one of these elite players to hit over .300 on the road. I'm not worried about him at all. I Would be glad to take him late in the first round.
All you Holliday doubters , do you now doubt Sizemore , Hamilton , and these before mentioned sluggers as well ?
Dan the Bluesman
All hitters unless in a really bad hitters park will generally hit better at home, it's usually pretty true among hitters. However using one season as a case, is well using to small of a smaple size.
I won't go into Hamilton, it's obvious he has played in 2 great hitters parks. The very same can be said for Howard, so those 2 don't make good examples at all.
ARod's Career (w/ 8 seasons in hitters parks)
Braun in 2007 (career is to small of a sample size IMO)
Sizemore is prolly the best example you posted. His average there is a decent gap, though his other rations are pretty close.
Just for fun thogh in 2005 he hit .324/.379/.547 Away and only .255/.318/.422 at Home.
Now all of this was only really to show the flaw in your analysis. Do I think Holliday will be affected by leaving? Sure, somewhat ... probably not as much as certain people expect. But it's just one more unknown going into switching leagues & being in a new park that isn't as favorable. To say it won't effect him I think is a bit silly, but also expecting him to fall down a lot is also silly ... though I don't think most are saying that.
OK , My analysis is not flawed for the year 2008. And there's no mention about facing weaker pitchers. Don't you think that facing weaker pitchers is beneficial to the batter ? The AL west's pitchers are much weaker than the NL WEst's . That does make a difference. Nobody can deny that fact. And nobody has argued against that point.