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More Matt Holliday thoughts

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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby hybrid » Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:37 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Well, he hasn't left Colorado yet, and even when he does, he's too old to get accurate results.


Not sure what being old would have to do with not getting accurate results, if anything it should be more accurate because the sample size is bigger.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Freebird27 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:13 pm

hybrid wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Well, he hasn't left Colorado yet, and even when he does, he's too old to get accurate results.


Not sure what being old would have to do with not getting accurate results, if anything it should be more accurate because the sample size is bigger.


Not sure when they started the Humidor, but 04, 05 was the last year Helton was a standout at 1B

2005 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 71 255 57 90 26 1 13 52 54 35 3 0 .353 .471 .616 1.087
Away 73 254 35 73 19 1
7
27 52 45 0 0 .287 .418 .453 .871

2004 G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Home 78 277 70 102 23 2 21 60 68 37 1 0 .368 .490 .693 1.183
Away 76 270 45 88 26 0 11 36 59 35 2 0 .326 .446 .544 .991

These would support the argument for a regression as well
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jan 31, 2009 10:31 pm

hybrid wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:Well, he hasn't left Colorado yet, and even when he does, he's too old to get accurate results.


Not sure what being old would have to do with not getting accurate results, if anything it should be more accurate because the sample size is bigger.

Old = natural regression. If he sucks at age 35+ getting traded out of Colorado, you can't point to moving out of Coors being the primary factor. The sample size would be smaller because he'd be close to retirement.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Dan Charette » Sun Feb 01, 2009 12:12 am

Many think Holliday is now a big risk moving away from Coors. I think he's no risk at all. Your only argument is home/away splits .
Check out these home / away splits .

Wright; Home .336 21 hr's
Away .271 12 hr's

A-Rod Home .334 21 hr's
Away .280 14 hr's

Braun Home .305 23 hr's
Away .266 17 hr's

Howard Home .261 26 hr's
Away .241 21 hr's

Hamilton Home .345 19 hr's
Away .263 13 hr's

Sizemore Home .322 21 hr's
Away .216 12 hr's

Now Holliday Home .322 15 hr's
Away .308 10 hr's

Holliday's road splits are better % wise than all of these elite players.

I guess that means , If I use a home/away argument that Sizemore is not a first round pick. Wasn't he voted the # 1 outfielder in the cafe poll ? How can that be ? He's awful on the road.
.216 average.

Wright was a lot better at home . Shea was a pitchers park. So the type of park doesn't always matter.

That home / away argument about Holliday is lame. Plus the stats you're giving about Holliday are away stats. All the elite players I mentioned before are better at home. Why can't Holliday be better at his new home ?

And to top it off Holliday will be facing pitchers that are as a group much weaker . ( AL west vs. NL West )

So now there should be a new group of Sizemore doubters . The ones that are using home / away splits.

Holliday was the only one of these elite players to hit over .300 on the road. I'm not worried about him at all. I Would be glad to take him late in the first round.

All you Holliday doubters , do you now doubt Sizemore , Hamilton , and these before mentioned sluggers as well ?

Dan the Bluesman B-)
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby hybrid » Sun Feb 01, 2009 12:23 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:
hybrid wrote:Not sure what being old would have to do with not getting accurate results, if anything it should be more accurate because the sample size is bigger.

Old = natural regression. If he sucks at age 35+ getting traded out of Colorado, you can't point to moving out of Coors being the primary factor. The sample size would be smaller because he'd be close to retirement.


This is a guy who hit .320 in 2007, and anyways regression shouldn't matter. Unless you think because he is older he would for some reason you think 3+ days on the road would really affect him due to age. His age would affect every day evenly otherwise. I'm not talking about him being traded or moving, simply his stats compared to away from Coors.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby hybrid » Sun Feb 01, 2009 12:44 am

Dan Charette wrote:Many think Holliday is now a big risk moving away from Coors. I think he's no risk at all. Your only argument is home/away splits .
Check out these home / away splits .

Wright; Home .336 21 hr's
Away .271 12 hr's

A-Rod Home .334 21 hr's
Away .280 14 hr's

Braun Home .305 23 hr's
Away .266 17 hr's

Howard Home .261 26 hr's
Away .241 21 hr's

Hamilton Home .345 19 hr's
Away .263 13 hr's

Sizemore Home .322 21 hr's
Away .216 12 hr's

Now Holliday Home .322 15 hr's
Away .308 10 hr's

Holliday's road splits are better % wise than all of these elite players.

I guess that means , If I use a home/away argument that Sizemore is not a first round pick. Wasn't he voted the # 1 outfielder in the cafe poll ? How can that be ? He's awful on the road.
.216 average.

Wright was a lot better at home . Shea was a pitchers park. So the type of park doesn't always matter.

That home / away argument about Holliday is lame. Plus the stats you're giving about Holliday are away stats. All the elite players I mentioned before are better at home. Why can't Holliday be better at his new home ?

And to top it off Holliday will be facing pitchers that are as a group much weaker . ( AL west vs. NL West )

So now there should be a new group of Sizemore doubters . The ones that are using home / away splits.

Holliday was the only one of these elite players to hit over .300 on the road. I'm not worried about him at all. I Would be glad to take him late in the first round.

All you Holliday doubters , do you now doubt Sizemore , Hamilton , and these before mentioned sluggers as well ?

Dan the Bluesman B-)


All hitters unless in a really bad hitters park will generally hit better at home, it's usually pretty true among hitters. However using one season as a case, is well using to small of a smaple size.

I won't go into Hamilton, it's obvious he has played in 2 great hitters parks. The very same can be said for Howard, so those 2 don't make good examples at all.

Wright's Career
Home: .318/.403/.555
Away: .301/.375/.512

ARod's Career (w/ 8 seasons in hitters parks)
Home: .314/.394/.594
Away: .298/.384/.562

Braun in 2007 (career is to small of a sample size IMO)
Home: .326/.386/.660
Away: .322/.356/.610

Sizemore is prolly the best example you posted. His average there is a decent gap, though his other rations are pretty close.
Home: .292/.390/.514
Away: .267/.352/.469

Just for fun thogh in 2005 he hit .324/.379/.547 Away and only .255/.318/.422 at Home.

Now all of this was only really to show the flaw in your analysis. Do I think Holliday will be affected by leaving? Sure, somewhat ... probably not as much as certain people expect. But it's just one more unknown going into switching leagues & being in a new park that isn't as favorable. To say it won't effect him I think is a bit silly, but also expecting him to fall down a lot is also silly ... though I don't think most are saying that.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun Feb 01, 2009 1:03 am

hybrid wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:
hybrid wrote:Not sure what being old would have to do with not getting accurate results, if anything it should be more accurate because the sample size is bigger.

Old = natural regression. If he sucks at age 35+ getting traded out of Colorado, you can't point to moving out of Coors being the primary factor. The sample size would be smaller because he'd be close to retirement.


This is a guy who hit .320 in 2007, and anyways regression shouldn't matter. Unless you think because he is older he would for some reason you think 3+ days on the road would really affect him due to age. His age would affect every day evenly otherwise. I'm not talking about him being traded or moving, simply his stats compared to away from Coors.

Funny, I'm pretty sure we're talking about players being traded away from Coors permanently. His stats away from Coors are irrelevant in application to Holliday since Holliday doesn't have to readjust to pitching every week or two anymore. Either way, I'm not claiming that if it applies to one it must apply to the other. They're different hitters. The stats posted earlier showed that Holliday is simply better at adjusting off sea-level. And most of Helton's career stats were compiled before the humidor was installed in '04, which skews the results even further.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Maris09 » Sun Feb 01, 2009 1:08 am

Kingctb27 wrote:Holliday will be lucky to hit over his road splits in Oakland.

Buyer Beware.


Let's see....
Jack Cust hit 20 HR "in Oakland" last year
Kurt Suzuki hit .318 "in Oakland" last year

I wonder how "lucky" Holliday will get.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby hybrid » Sun Feb 01, 2009 1:23 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:Funny, I'm pretty sure we're talking about players being traded away from Coors permanently. His stats away from Coors are irrelevant in application to Holliday since Holliday doesn't have to readjust to pitching every week or two anymore. Either way, I'm not claiming that if it applies to one it must apply to the other. They're different hitters. The stats posted earlier showed that Holliday is simply better at adjusting off sea-level. And most of Helton's career stats were compiled before the humidor was installed in '04, which skews the results even further.


Whether or not Helton is being traded has no bearing at all on whether or not his stats away from Coors effect his hitting. Why would the humidor effect his hitting away from Coors, don't see the correlation. Though I agree they are two different hitters thus making the comparison not exact or may not be that significant at all. I still don't really believe those stats listed before, but until I have time to do more than one season they are what they are.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun Feb 01, 2009 2:45 am

hybrid wrote:Whether or not Helton is being traded has no bearing at all on whether or not his stats away from Coors effect his hitting. Why would the humidor effect his hitting away from Coors, don't see the correlation. Though I agree they are two different hitters thus making the comparison not exact or may not be that significant at all. I still don't really believe those stats listed before, but until I have time to do more than one season they are what they are.

Sigh...have you been reading this thread or just typing up responses? Helton (by which I assume you mean Holliday, since he's the focus of the discussion) being traded has everything to do with his final stat line. Holliday will no longer have to go through that readjustment period of a few days that lowered his career AVG in the first few games away from Coors. Holliday is simply better at adjusting to the conditions that he's placed in than Helton is.

And what do you mean you don't believe those stats? Like you said, they are what they are. They're statistics, not rhetoric or editorials, you can't twist them around and you can't tell half-truths. Can't do anything to ignore them except pretend not to read them, and it's already too late for that. And those stats listed in that original article are from his entire career, by the way.
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