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More Matt Holliday thoughts

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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby stumpak » Sat Jan 31, 2009 3:26 pm

It would be interesting to see the "sea level" games 1-8 data in regard to some other hitters who have left Coors in recent years. If there is a correlation between this and post-Coors performance, this would lend some serious credence to the hypothesis.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Kingctb27 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 4:44 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Here's the article: http://www.baybridgebaseball.com/2009/0 ... iment.html The author added SLG as well:

First 2 games of a trip: .277 BA/.472 SLG
3rd game on: .281/.446
4th game on: .281/.458
5th game on: .291/.483
6th game on: .305/.522
7th game on: .321/.567
8th game on: .356/.683

And later commented about sample size:

For 6+ games, he's got 314 at-bats
For 7+, 171 ABs
For 8+, 104

Not huge but still significant.

By the way, anyone seen the park factors for Coors in recent years? I cannot stress this enough, Coors isn't the best hitter's park in baseball anymore, and they haven't been since 2004:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor
And baseball-reference's park factors which also give the same numbers

I haven't seen anyone damning Swisher for moving out of a ballpark only inches behind Coors.

I think you fail to realize just how bad the offenses are that come and play games in Coors. The Dodgers, Padres, Snakes, and Giants are not exactly the best hitting teams in the world. As a matter of fact, they have been out-right horrid.

Holliday will be lucky to hit over his road splits in Oakland.

Buyer Beware.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Freebird27 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 6:40 pm

You also have to consider that the A's park is the second most pitcher friendly park outside of Petco.

While the Humidor has brought Coors out of the stratosphere it is still the 2nd best hitting environment in baseball.

Rotoworld:

Of course, one season's worth of data is a pretty small sample to use if you're trying to make any real statements about the impact a ballpark has, which is why I've chosen to focus on Baseball-Reference.com's three-year park factors (unless a specific ballpark hasn't been around that long). A park factor above 100 means hitter friendly and a park factor below 100 means pitcher friendly. Let's start at the top …

Boston Red Sox – 108
Colorado Rockies – 107
Arizona Diamondbacks – 107
Chicago Cubs – 106
Chicago White Sox – 105

and the bottom:

Kansas City Royals – 97
Seattle Mariners – 96
Pittsburgh Pirates – 95
Minnesota Twins – 93
Oakland A's – 93
San Diego Padres – 89
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jan 31, 2009 6:59 pm

Kingctb27 wrote:I think you fail to realize just how bad the offenses are that come and play games in Coors. The Dodgers, Padres, Snakes, and Giants are not exactly the best hitting teams in the world. As a matter of fact, they have been out-right horrid.

Holliday will be lucky to hit over his road splits in Oakland.

Buyer Beware.

Park factor is calculated based on difference between home/road stats. If the Dodgers, Padres, Snakes, and Giants suck at home, their suck ratio (that's the technical term) should be proportional at Coors. It makes no difference whether it's Omar Quintanilla or Albert Pujols batting, neither will be much better at Coors than at home.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby hybrid » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:27 pm

stumpak wrote:It would be interesting to see the "sea level" games 1-8 data in regard to some other hitters who have left Coors in recent years. If there is a correlation between this and post-Coors performance, this would lend some serious credence to the hypothesis.


The same guy did Helton and there wasn't any correlation to the numbers of games and performing better.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Jan 31, 2009 8:35 pm

hybrid wrote:
stumpak wrote:It would be interesting to see the "sea level" games 1-8 data in regard to some other hitters who have left Coors in recent years. If there is a correlation between this and post-Coors performance, this would lend some serious credence to the hypothesis.


The same guy did Helton and there wasn't any correlation to the numbers of games and performing better.

Well, he hasn't left Colorado yet, and even when he does, he's too old to get accurate results.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby MasterX1918 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:14 pm

Vinny Castilla's numbers declined when he left Colorado. Then when he came back again his numbers rose.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Yoda » Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:15 pm

The issue I have with Holliday is not so much due to park effects but changing leagues. Pitchers always have the upper hand when facing a hitter for the first time. Even great hitters like MCab needed time to adjust. Holliday is still in his peak but moving out of Coors and switching leagues will definitely lead to regression in 09.
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby MasterX1918 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:20 pm

Vinny Castilla's numbers declined when he left Colorado. Then when he came back again his numbers rose.

with Colorado
1997- .304BA 40HR 113RBI
1998- .319BA 46HR 144RBI
1999- .275BA 33HR 102RBI
away from Colorado (2000 he was injured)
2001- .260BA 25HR 91RBI
2002- .232BA 12HR 61RBI
2003- .277Ba 22HR 76RBI
back with Colorado
2004- .271BA 35HR 131RBI
with Washington
2005- .253BA 12HR 66RBI

Coors definitly seemed to help him
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Re: More Matt Holliday thoughts

Postby Freebird27 » Sat Jan 31, 2009 9:30 pm

MasterX1918 wrote:Vinny Castilla's numbers declined when he left Colorado. Then when he came back again his numbers rose.

with Colorado
1997- .304BA 40HR 113RBI
1998- .319BA 46HR 144RBI
1999- .275BA 33HR 102RBI
away from Colorado (2000 he was injured)
2001- .260BA 25HR 91RBI
2002- .232BA 12HR 61RBI
2003- .277Ba 22HR 76RBI
back with Colorado
2004- .271BA 35HR 131RBI
with Washington
2005- .253BA 12HR 66RBI

Coors definitly seemed to help him


This was pre-humidor era though, so I am not sure it applies as much. He was the first person that came to mind as well.
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