I've seen discussion/argument/projection of how Holliday will hit in Oakland. Stadium factors, performance of other players, etc, etc have been discussed but one thing I haven't seen is discussion of how he does at average MLB parks away from Coors.
If you take his last 5 years in 2656 at bats his average year (based on 600 at bats) would be 108 runs, 29 HRs, 109 RBI and a .319 average. That seems a little low since the last three years he has increased his production from the first two. If you add 5% to those you get (again based on 600 at bats) 114 runs, 30 HR, 115 RBI and a .335 average. That seems reasonable. You could argue its been more like a 6% or 7% increase from the total average but its in the right range.
If you take his averages (based on 600 at bats) for just the 1303 at bats away from Coors (that's almost two and a half years of at bats so sample size should be reasonable here) and add that 5% you get 94 runs, 21 HRs, 85 runs and a .294 batting average. While I think those seem like low numbers to project for him, that very well could be showing us what a true Holliday without Coors field would give you. Keep in mind that this isn't even trying to include ballpark factors for Oakland (which is considered on the pitchers park side of nuetral) Include the facts that over the past 5 years (in roughly similar at bats) he's stolen 4, 14, 10, 11 and 28 bases and he's going to a team that's considered conservative for SB attempts and I don't see projecting him to get close to repeating his 28 SBs.
So add it all up and mid-90s in runs, low 20s in HRs, upper 80s in RBIs, under 20 SBs and right at a .300 batting average and you've got a 6th to 8th round player being drafted before the middle of the 2nd round.
Now before you slam me, there are definitely other reason why his road rates have been so much lower than just ballpark conditions (home sick, parties on the road, gets stiff while traveling, etc), it doesn't include the fact that he'll get to hit against pitchers not familiar with him, and it doesn't consider the fact that he will bat against Texas pitchers a bunch (and for the sake of one of my keeper league teams I hope his numbers don't fall anywhere close to that). However, I think this does demonstrate the huge amount of risk that Holliday represents compared with where he is being drafted.
While we are on the topic of Matt Holliday, I thought I would bring up this tidbit that I read in a recent article. The long-standing theory on why the splits for the Rockies are so great between home and road is that it takes Rockies hitters some time to become acclimated to breaking balls breaking more sharply at sea level compared to at a mile high. If the theory is true, we would see significant improvement by Rockies hitters the longer they stay at sea level. Here are Matt Holliday's numbers on the road, by days on the road:
Matt Holliday's career road numbers... First 2 games of a trip: .277 BA/.472 SLG 3rd game on: .281/.446 4th game on: .281/.458 5th game on: .291/.483 6th game on: .305/.522 7th game on: .321/.567 8th game on: .356/.683
In this case there is an obvious and incremental improvement every day Holliday stays on the road. Granted, the sample size decreases dramatically as the days wear on, but even if we consider the 6th-8th games together there is a significant improvement.
By this measure we could infer that Holliday will hit near to his yearly averages, though Oakland's ballpark is still going to eat into it a little. I suspect he will hit much better than his previous road splits indicate. I suspect something in the range of .310/.550.
What people also fail to account for, post after post after post, is that using his "road" stats to project what his full year numbers will be away from Coors is HIGHLY flawed. Holliday, much like every other hitter, will most likely have better home numbers than road numbers, regardless of if they play at Coors field or not.
Taking his "road" stats from the last few years and making it seem like that's what his overall numbers will look like in '09 is not taking into account that he will become familiar with his new home park, and thus most likely have better home numbers than road numbers.
All in all, if I can get the consistency of a Holliday somewhere near the end of the second round, I'll take it. I mean, Holliday, in a walk year, and with a good possibility of being traded mid year to a contender.....
Great post nerfherders. I was going to say something very similar about hitters taking some time to get used to the break at sea level, but I didn't have the numbers to back me up like that. I think that those numbers are very telling. I love that Holliday is falling to the second round!
I just remember in 2006 when Soriano went from the hot air of tex to the roomy and spacious nationals stadium. Everyone was all up in arms about how Soriano was going to tank that year because his road splits in arlington were terrible. Then what did he do? Oh yeah he went 40/40...
I'm not putting that much stock into the switch from coors to oakland. I might knock him down a couple of players but I'm fairly certain he'll perform better than a 6th round player...