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FBC Community Top 20 OF - #4: Matt Holliday, #5: C. Beltran

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Who is the #4 outfielder in a standard 5x5 league?

Matt Holliday
34
45%
Carlos Beltran
27
36%
Alfonso Soriano
4
5%
Manny Ramirez
3
4%
Carlos Lee
2
3%
Carlos Quentin
1
1%
B.J. Upton
3
4%
Carl Crawford
1
1%
Jason Bay
0
No votes
Other (please specify)
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 75

Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby BronXBombers51 » Fri Jan 30, 2009 12:33 am

Beltran.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby horatio » Fri Jan 30, 2009 1:31 am

In 2008 Matt Holliday was the 2nd best fantasy OF in the game. In 2007 he was the best OF. In 2006, he was the best OF.

In 2007, while hitting for a an average of .256, Jack Cust scored 61 runs, hit 26 HRs, and had 82 RBIs in 395 at bats, putting him at a pace for 85 runs, 36 home runs, and 114 RBIs if he had 550 at bats.

In 2008 Cust scored 77 runs, hit 33 HRs, and got 77 RBIs in 481 at bats, which extrapolates to 88 runs, 37 HRs, and 88 RBIs over 550 ABs. The guy had a paltry average of .231.

Holliday has a career batting average of .319 and last I checked the A's are not playing all of their games on the road this year, I think Holliday's going to be alright.

Of course, please, continue to knock him down your lists, I'll be very happy to take Holliday in the 2nd round.

As a disclaimer I'll say that in the 2nd I'd prefer to draft Rollins due to the huge dropoff at SS, or J. Santana or Lincecum, I'd probably even prefer to take Lance Berkman over Holliday due to the bit of risk associated with Holliday's new digs, but let's be serious, the man is a beast.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Jan 30, 2009 1:33 am

horatio wrote:In 2008 Matt Holliday was the 2nd best fantasy OF in the game. In 2007 he was the best OF. In 2006, he was the best OF.

In 2007, while hitting for a an average of .256, Jack Cust scored 61 runs, hit 26 HRs, and had 82 RBIs in 395 at bats, putting him at a pace for 85 runs, 36 home runs, and 114 RBIs if he had 550 at bats.

In 2008 Cust scored 77 runs, hit 33 HRs, and got 77 RBIs in 481 at bats, which extrapolates to 88 runs, 37 HRs, and 88 RBIs over 550 ABs. The guy had a paltry average of .231.

Holliday has a career batting average of .319 and last I checked the A's are not playing all of their games on the road this year, I think Holliday's going to be alright.

Of course, please, continue to knock him down your lists, I'll be very happy to take Holliday in the 2nd round.

As a disclaimer I'll say that in the 2nd I'd prefer to draft Rollins due to the huge dropoff at SS, or J. Santana or Lincecum, I'd probably even prefer to take Lance Berkman over Holliday due to the bit of risk associated with Holliday's new digs, but let's be serious, the man is a beast.



1. jack cust will never get 550 ABs and to simply look at him a reason why holliday is going to be productive is foolish.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby pokerplaya » Fri Jan 30, 2009 1:35 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
horatio wrote:In 2008 Matt Holliday was the 2nd best fantasy OF in the game. In 2007 he was the best OF. In 2006, he was the best OF.

In 2007, while hitting for a an average of .256, Jack Cust scored 61 runs, hit 26 HRs, and had 82 RBIs in 395 at bats, putting him at a pace for 85 runs, 36 home runs, and 114 RBIs if he had 550 at bats.

In 2008 Cust scored 77 runs, hit 33 HRs, and got 77 RBIs in 481 at bats, which extrapolates to 88 runs, 37 HRs, and 88 RBIs over 550 ABs. The guy had a paltry average of .231.

Holliday has a career batting average of .319 and last I checked the A's are not playing all of their games on the road this year, I think Holliday's going to be alright.

Of course, please, continue to knock him down your lists, I'll be very happy to take Holliday in the 2nd round.

As a disclaimer I'll say that in the 2nd I'd prefer to draft Rollins due to the huge dropoff at SS, or J. Santana or Lincecum, I'd probably even prefer to take Lance Berkman over Holliday due to the bit of risk associated with Holliday's new digs, but let's be serious, the man is a beast.



1. jack cust will never get 550 ABs and to simply look at him a reason why holliday is going to be productive is foolish.


Agreed. Wildly different players.

Holliday hit .300? A hell of a lot more likely than him hitting 30 HR's.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby horatio » Fri Jan 30, 2009 2:00 am

1. jack cust will never get 550 ABs and to simply look at him a reason why holliday is going to be productive is foolish.


<sigh> I never suggested Jack Cust would get 550 at bats. I'm just saying that just because Holliday will be playing in Oakland doesn't mean he's not going to be productive. This debate has been driven into the ground and I think everyone's got some intelligent points to make. I like Beltran too, honestly I'll be surprised if I draft either one of them but despite the change in scenery I still think Holliday is a better hitter than Beltran, runs and rbis.. well, yeah, Oakland's been pretty mediocre in those stats lately but hopefully Giambi can help with that. I suppose that since I"m an A's fan my homerism is the deciding factor to rank Holliday before Beltran. It will be interesting to see how much the A's let Holliday run, but considering that he's a one year rental and one of the premier names in the game, and the possibility that getting him and the acquisition of Giambi might signal that the A's are willing to be a bit more aggressive this year, who knows, he might surprise us all and go for 20 stolen bags.

It will be fun to revisit these arguments next October.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby CadensDad » Fri Jan 30, 2009 2:11 am

horatio wrote:
1. jack cust will never get 550 ABs and to simply look at him a reason why holliday is going to be productive is foolish.


<sigh> I never suggested Jack Cust would get 550 at bats. I'm just saying that just because Holliday will be playing in Oakland doesn't mean he's not going to be productive. This debate has been driven into the ground and I think everyone's got some intelligent points to make. I like Beltran too, honestly I'll be surprised if I draft either one of them but despite the change in scenery I still think Holliday is a better hitter than Beltran, runs and rbis.. well, yeah, Oakland's been pretty mediocre in those stats lately but hopefully Giambi can help with that. I suppose that since I"m an A's fan my homerism is the deciding factor to rank Holliday before Beltran. It will be interesting to see how much the A's let Holliday run, but considering that he's a one year rental and one of the premier names in the game, and the possibility that getting him and the acquisition of Giambi might signal that the A's are willing to be a bit more aggressive this year, who knows, he might surprise us all and go for 20 stolen bags.

It will be fun to revisit these arguments next October.


I see your point, the A's will have nothing to lose by getting as much out of Holliday as they can I.E. By running him to death or by trade. I think he will run for a few sb more than expected as well
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Jan 30, 2009 2:25 am

looking at the number of ABs cust is going to get is silly, 550 ABs for cust would be like 700 PAs. of course hes not gonna get 700 PAs hitting in the middle of the order. He will, however, get around 600 PAs and thats what matters.

i think holliday is being significantly underrated by some people going into this year. that said, i'd still take beltran over him this year, but its pretty close.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby KHI » Fri Jan 30, 2009 2:59 am

Uh Beltran over Soriano?

In 606 abs Beltran went .284/116/27/124/25

In 453 abs Soriano put up .280/75/29/76/19

Pro-rate Soriano to 606abs and you'd have .280/100/36/101/25

Soriano has averaged 610 abs in his career as a starter.

A quad in 2007, and a slow start or "bad leg" followed by a hbp broken finger kept him out in 2008.

In 2009 I'm not banking on either one and if he stays healthy, he should have upward to 620-630 abs and put up better numbers than Beltran across the board.

Holliday is an early 3rd rounder this year.

I voted for Quentin because of his upside (45/10) and the inconsistent correlation of wrist injury and performance.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Jan 30, 2009 3:00 am

KHI wrote:Uh Beltran over Soriano?

In 606 abs Beltran went .284/116/27/124/25

In 453 abs Soriano put up .280/75/29/76/19

Pro-rate Soriano to 606abs and you'd have .280/100/36/101/25

Soriano has averaged 610 abs in his career as a starter.

A quad in 2007, and a slow start or "bad leg" followed by a hbp broken finger kept him out in 2008.

In 2009 I'm not banking on either one and if he stays healthy, he should have upward to 620-630 abs and put up better numbers than Beltran across the board.

Holliday is an early 3rd rounder this year.

I voted for Quentin because of his upside (45/10) and the inconsistent correlation of wrist injury and performance.



so 2 consecutive years of nagging injuries isnt an issue?
Last edited by Snakes Gould on Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: FBC Community Top 20 OF - Vote #4

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:18 am

everythings been said about Holliday and Beltran
and the fact is that Im scared of both of them to draft this early made me vote for Manny.
my reasons:
Manny will produce no matter what. If he can hit at chavez ravine, he can hit anywhere. And if he settles for a one year contract then the sky is the limit this year.
Beltran will get his 23-25 HRs 20 SB and 100/100 .275which is nice if he stays healthy, but not Manny nice
I dont see Holliday stealing more than 20 bags again, but he'll come close, and will have a Beltran like line with slightly more HRs, slightly less SB and much higher avg. which puts him ahead of Beltran.
my projected Crawford line is .300, 12 HR, 85 RBI, 91 Runs, 48 SB, so he is slightly behind those guys, and Quentin needs to produce 2 years in a row to be considered here.
I like Carlos Lee too, but not as much as Manny.
Soriano could outproduce everybody here, but as of yet noone has any idea where he'll hit, in that lineup. He could be best in the 5th slot behind
1. platoon leadoff
2. D-Lee
3. Bradley
4. Aramis
that could get him more RBI's and more SB
Last edited by Syfo-Dyas on Fri Jan 30, 2009 4:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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