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2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

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2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby WebHamster » Sat Jan 24, 2009 3:22 pm

This thread contains comments on Gareth Porter's Article "2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition", which was posted in the Cafe's Articles section on January 24, 2009. The full article can be read here.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sat Jan 24, 2009 4:22 pm

WebHamster wrote:This thread contains comments on Gareth Porter's Article "2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition", which was posted in the Cafe's Articles section on January 24, 2009. The full article can be read here.


Great article GP!
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby GiantsFan14 » Sat Jan 24, 2009 5:12 pm

nice overall article but i will have to disagree with the cano pick.

First of all while he has shown a trend of being a better 2nd half hitter, last year was a bit different. after his horrendous april (where he had a .156 BABIP) he actually hit .297 from May 1st on, never with a BA below .287 for any one month. I think he can easily hit .300 with 15-20 HRs and solid run/rbi numbers and warrants a 8th-9th round pick at a shallow position. i do agree that i wouldn't take him over davis or votto, however.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Jan 24, 2009 5:47 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:nice overall article but i will have to disagree with the cano pick.

First of all while he has shown a trend of being a better 2nd half hitter, last year was a bit different. after his horrendous april (where he had a .156 BABIP) he actually hit .297 from May 1st on, never with a BA below .287 for any one month. I think he can easily hit .300 with 15-20 HRs and solid run/rbi numbers and warrants a 8th-9th round pick at a shallow position. i do agree that i wouldn't take him over davis or votto, however.

I was convinced of Cano's 2nd half trend a season ago, but after watching about 100 Yankee games last season, I'll never own him again. He's as lazy as all get out and a lot of the time just doesn't seem to care, whether it's in the field, in the batter's box, or on the base paths. I remember when he was first called up, noticing what a hustler he was, especially with things like turning double plays and grinding it out on the bases -- I think that had a lot to do with his success. I don't think he's talented enough, the way a player like Manny is, to be a lazy bum and still put up numbers.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby rookies and cream » Sat Jan 24, 2009 10:46 pm

Nice job GP ;-D
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby Curtis Pride » Sat Jan 24, 2009 11:09 pm

Alexei had a 1.009 OPS with runners in scoring position and .714 in all other situations. He had 36% of his RBIs in 17 AB with the bases loaded.

So basically, his run production is going to go way down.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby Chicago 2 » Sun Jan 25, 2009 2:19 pm

Nice write up.

I've particularly never been a big fan of Cano because of his slow start to the first half of season, Texeira/Howard are others who tend to start off slow.

I like the Alexei pick. He has what 130 games under his belt now, should be well seasoned for the upcoming year and should play just about every game this year, I don't see why he wouldn't improve in HR, R, RBI and steals.

One player I like is Mike Aviles, someone who kinda came out of nowhere but still put up some real solid numbers for the Royals. I know there's the debate of if he is for real, the fact that he is playing in the WBC for Puerto Rico should give fantasy players the opportunity to watch him and make sure hes still hitting. I personally feel hes a nice late rd bargain. 20/20 might be reasonable but I'd say expect at least 15/15 from him. I also like the fact that he is eligible for 2B and SS.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jan 25, 2009 3:51 pm

Chicago 2 wrote:Nice write up.

I've particularly never been a big fan of Cano because of his slow start to the first half of season, Texeira/Howard are others who tend to start off slow.

I like the Alexei pick. He has what 130 games under his belt now, should be well seasoned for the upcoming year and should play just about every game this year, I don't see why he wouldn't improve in HR, R, RBI and steals.

One player I like is Mike Aviles, someone who kinda came out of nowhere but still put up some real solid numbers for the Royals. I know there's the debate of if he is for real, the fact that he is playing in the WBC for Puerto Rico should give fantasy players the opportunity to watch him and make sure hes still hitting. I personally feel hes a nice late rd bargain. 20/20 might be reasonable but I'd say expect at least 15/15 from him. I also like the fact that he is eligible for 2B and SS.

Aviles is already 28 years old. He's never aproached anywhere near that level of production even after 3 years in AAA. I don't know why people are so in love with him. For him to be valuable at all, he's going to have to hit .325 - which means he'll have to have a .350 BABIP. So basically, Aviles is Freddy Sanchez.

The two popular "sleepers" in Aviles and Alexei are two of my big busts (compared to their ADP) at MI this year.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby Chicago 2 » Sun Jan 25, 2009 4:16 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:
Chicago 2 wrote:Nice write up.

I've particularly never been a big fan of Cano because of his slow start to the first half of season, Texeira/Howard are others who tend to start off slow.

I like the Alexei pick. He has what 130 games under his belt now, should be well seasoned for the upcoming year and should play just about every game this year, I don't see why he wouldn't improve in HR, R, RBI and steals.

One player I like is Mike Aviles, someone who kinda came out of nowhere but still put up some real solid numbers for the Royals. I know there's the debate of if he is for real, the fact that he is playing in the WBC for Puerto Rico should give fantasy players the opportunity to watch him and make sure hes still hitting. I personally feel hes a nice late rd bargain. 20/20 might be reasonable but I'd say expect at least 15/15 from him. I also like the fact that he is eligible for 2B and SS.

Aviles is already 28 years old. He's never aproached anywhere near that level of production even after 3 years in AAA. I don't know why people are so in love with him. For him to be valuable at all, he's going to have to hit .325 - which means he'll have to have a .350 BABIP. So basically, Aviles is Freddy Sanchez.

The two popular "sleepers" in Aviles and Alexei are two of my big busts (compared to their ADP) at MI this year.

I really don't care that hes 28, its not like I'm drafting him for a keeper league just for a one year gig. Isn't 28 supposed to be a prime year for a player anyhow?

If I can't get one of your top tier second basemen/shortstops Aviles is really my next option. I particularly don't like the crop of 2B and SS this year. The fact that he hasn't reached those numbers in AAA doesn't really bother me, I'm not one to judge a player off of his minor league stats, I've never felt they are a true indication of a players MLB potential. If you perform in the minors congrats, if you can't hit in the MLB then who cares about your ML stats.
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Re: 2 Up, 2 Down - Second Base Edition

Postby rookies and cream » Sun Jan 25, 2009 6:20 pm

Chicago 2 wrote:The fact that he hasn't reached those numbers in AAA doesn't really bother me, I'm not one to judge a player off of his minor league stats, I've never felt they are a true indication of a players MLB potential. If you perform in the minors congrats, if you can't hit in the MLB then who cares about your ML stats.


Fantasy baseball is all about predictions. And it's a never a good idea to base your projections off one year, especially one's rookie year when other teams don't have a great scouting report. That's why Curtis is bringing up Aviles' minor league numbers, because really, that's all we have to go on. Remember what happened to the last Royals' shortstop that made a splash his rookie year?
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