Impact of WBC?

[Curtis Pride]

Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)

[AquaMan2342]

Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)

I am slightly bumping down any pitcher that starts in the WBC. RE: Jake Peavy.

[J35J]

It was discussed a couple months ago here.

[J35J]

Ahhh, disregard that thread...that was a different discussion. I'll see if I can find the one where this particular topic was discussed.

***EDIT...maybe that was the thread. I thought there was more discussion on the topic.

[AquaMan2342]

Ahhh, disregard that thread...that was a different discussion. I'll see if I can find the one where this particular topic was discussed.

***EDIT...maybe that was the thread. I thought there was more discussion on the topic.

Make up your mind.

[Curtis Pride]

I just did a quick excel query of the batters in the WBC in ‘06 and compared their ‘05 and ‘06 OPS+ (just did a sumproduct so it’s not 100% accurate)

Total
‘05 OPS+ 115.41
‘06 OPS+ 112.67

Under 27 during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 110.98
‘06 OPS+ 118.46

Between 27-32 during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 118.67
‘06 OPS+ 114.03

33 and Over during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 110.71
‘06 OPS+ 102.92

Chang in AB was pretty unremarkable for the group. Up 11% those under 27. Unchanged for those 27-32. Down 7% for those over 33. The fact that the guys under 27 improved probably isn't meaningful.

Looks like the guys in their prime would be the easiest sample to remove the factor of aging. Guys between 27-32 who improved their OPS+ more than 15%:
Juan Rivera, Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano

Guys who declined more than 15%:
Michael Young, Placido Polanco, Juan Encarnacion, Derrek Lee, Arod, Randy Winn

[J35J]

I don't think having 1 year of this so far is enough to tell us one way or the other. I won't even factor the WBC into my thoughts when drafting unless someone gets hurt.

[Curtis Pride]

It may only be one year, but there is a sample size of about 75-100 and another 50+ pitchers who participated.

That's more meaningful than if we have multiple years. It's still going to be a largely different pool of players year over year, so it really shouldn't matter how many years we have.

Obviously the more years, the sample will grow from ~150 names to hundreds, but I still think it's meaningful. Obviously more detail would be needed than the cursory glance I did. Hopefully Fangraphs or Rotoatuthority does something.

[rookies and cream]

Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)

I am slightly bumping down any pitcher that starts in the WBC. RE: Jake Peavy.

We'll have to wait until official rosters are announced but my guess is that you will then be bumping down >50% of the top 16 SP's.

[kab21]

In the thread from a month ago on the subject there was a baseballprospectus article that showed several pitchers got off to slow starts, but if IIRC it only had data thru late May. One example cited (I think) was Johan Santana who was notoriously a slow starter and got off to a slow start that year.

I'll be especially wary of lesser starters that end up in non-starting roles on WBC teams. The starters are getting their regular innings similar to what they would in spring training. But the non-starting SP's aren't on their regular schedule of building up innings. Carlos Silva comes to mind since he had a good '04, '05 and '07 before going to pot last year (a contact pitcher in front of a horrendous defense, interesting).