Impact of WBC? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Impact of WBC?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Impact of WBC?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:44 am

Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)
Curtis Pride
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1363
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 19 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:48 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)


I am slightly bumping down any pitcher that starts in the WBC. RE: Jake Peavy.
AquaMan2342
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 7852
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Searchin for my mainline....I couldn't hit it sideways

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby J35J » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:07 pm

It was discussed a couple months ago here.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 369)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby J35J » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:10 pm

Ahhh, disregard that thread...that was a different discussion. I'll see if I can find the one where this particular topic was discussed.

***EDIT...maybe that was the thread. I thought there was more discussion on the topic.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 369)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:21 pm

J35J wrote:Ahhh, disregard that thread...that was a different discussion. I'll see if I can find the one where this particular topic was discussed.

***EDIT...maybe that was the thread. I thought there was more discussion on the topic.


Make up your mind. :-b
AquaMan2342
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 7852
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Searchin for my mainline....I couldn't hit it sideways

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 14, 2009 1:32 pm

I just did a quick excel query of the batters in the WBC in ‘06 and compared their ‘05 and ‘06 OPS+ (just did a sumproduct so it’s not 100% accurate)

Total
‘05 OPS+ 115.41
‘06 OPS+ 112.67

Under 27 during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 110.98
‘06 OPS+ 118.46

Between 27-32 during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 118.67
‘06 OPS+ 114.03

33 and Over during ‘06
‘05 OPS+ 110.71
‘06 OPS+ 102.92

Chang in AB was pretty unremarkable for the group. Up 11% those under 27. Unchanged for those 27-32. Down 7% for those over 33. The fact that the guys under 27 improved probably isn't meaningful.

Looks like the guys in their prime would be the easiest sample to remove the factor of aging. Guys between 27-32 who improved their OPS+ more than 15%:
Juan Rivera, Vernon Wells, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano

Guys who declined more than 15%:
Michael Young, Placido Polanco, Juan Encarnacion, Derrek Lee, Arod, Randy Winn
Curtis Pride
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1363
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 19 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby J35J » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:15 pm

I don't think having 1 year of this so far is enough to tell us one way or the other. I won't even factor the WBC into my thoughts when drafting unless someone gets hurt.
J35J
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 10467
(Past Year: 369)
Joined: 26 Jan 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 14, 2009 4:53 pm

It may only be one year, but there is a sample size of about 75-100 and another 50+ pitchers who participated.

That's more meaningful than if we have multiple years. It's still going to be a largely different pool of players year over year, so it really shouldn't matter how many years we have.

Obviously the more years, the sample will grow from ~150 names to hundreds, but I still think it's meaningful. Obviously more detail would be needed than the cursory glance I did. Hopefully Fangraphs or Rotoatuthority does something.
Curtis Pride
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1363
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 19 May 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Jan 14, 2009 5:58 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
Curtis Pride wrote:Anyone know of any research on how the players who were in the WBC in '06 fared during that season?

I seem to remember that people were complaining about the WBC screwing players up (I think it was pitchers especially)


I am slightly bumping down any pitcher that starts in the WBC. RE: Jake Peavy.


We'll have to wait until official rosters are announced but my guess is that you will then be bumping down >50% of the top 16 SP's.
Image
rookies and cream
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterWeb Supporter
Posts: 6490
(Past Year: 45)
Joined: 4 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Long Island, NY

Re: Impact of WBC?

Postby kab21 » Wed Jan 14, 2009 7:37 pm

In the thread from a month ago on the subject there was a baseballprospectus article that showed several pitchers got off to slow starts, but if IIRC it only had data thru late May. One example cited (I think) was Johan Santana who was notoriously a slow starter and got off to a slow start that year.

I'll be especially wary of lesser starters that end up in non-starting roles on WBC teams. The starters are getting their regular innings similar to what they would in spring training. But the non-starting SP's aren't on their regular schedule of building up innings. Carlos Silva comes to mind since he had a good '04, '05 and '07 before going to pot last year (a contact pitcher in front of a horrendous defense, interesting).
kab21
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 5340
(Past Year: 170)
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Next

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact