Standard 5x5 is unrealistic - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:35 pm

I'm keeping it at 5x5 so it isn't so daunting. I don't want a bunch of convoluted data.

I think:

OBP takes care of contact/walks
SLG takes care of power/xtra base hits. I think it's especially cool that SLG% puts a weight on each xtra base hit type: HR = 4 pts, Triple = 3 pts, Double = 2 pts, Single = 1 pt.
SB takes care of basestealers (not as important in "real life" but a fun stat to have in fantasy leagues)
R (one of the stats i'm on the bubble about, but I thought I'd add it to balance out power types with speedy types)
PA puts value on players that get a lot of PAs (durable, healthy, very productive real life players)

x

SV - fun category to chase, it's fantasy baseball pastime/tradition
IP - puts a lot of weight on valuable innings eaters, but they need to be good pitchers, because KK/9 and BB/9 will suffer if you just throw any junk pitcher in.
K/9 - Nice rate stat that accurate incorporates an important part of the game, and keeps owners honest, by not streaming sucky pitchers who dont strike anybody out.
BB/9 - Almost identical to K/9 .. but makes control pitchers who eat innings valuable.
ERA (this one is like "R", i'm not too sure about using it, I thought about using WHIP, but I thought that stat would have too much overlap with BB/9).
fantasyfiend
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 666
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:36 pm

I still say you have your closers overvalued. Out of your top 100, 15 are starters and 16 are closers. That does not reflect the true value and contribution of each. As I said earlier, there were 13 SP's who had higher Win Shares than the highest RP. Again, I would change one of your rate stats to a counting stat to change those values.

Also, if you're really trying for some objectiveness, you really want to do better than just compare it to 5x5. Joe Mauer was the 5th in the league in Win Shares in 2008 for hitters yet he doesn't show up anywhere on either top 100. And Ellsbury over Beltran and Vlad (and Chone over Vlad) doesn't feel right, either.

And yes, the players with the most PA's will generally be the ones at the top of the order, assuming that they have a consistent job. Every time the game ends with the #3 hitter, the #1 and #2's will have 1 more PA than the guys hitting 4th or 5th. I can't find the stats for PA's for last year, but I did find AB's (not exactly the same thing, I know) and Reyes was the leader at 688 followed by Ichiro at 686 then Pedroia at 653, Michael Young at 645, Jose Lopez at 644, and then guys in the 630's and on down. Even if you add in BB's to get approx. PA's, Reyes ends up around 750 and Ichiro ends up around 740 whereas Justin Morneau has around 700, M-Cab around 670, Ryan Braun around 650, and so on and so forth. I'm not saying it's a huge difference, but there is a difference there that favors guys who hit in the top of the lineup.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:47 pm

Quick caveat: I realized I was looking at total Win Shares and roto doesn't look at defense. If you take out Mauer's defensive contribution, he falls in the list but he's still around top 20. I'm getting all this from The Hardball Times. And yes, there are other players who were high in Win Shares that were not projected high by BP in 2008 (Hamilton, McLouth, Ludwick), but I used Mauer as an example because I don't think his production was really that far off of his norm.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:56 pm

Here is the top 15 in PA in 2008:

Jose Reyes 763 PA
Ichiro Suzuki 749 PA
Grady Sizemore 745 PA
David Wright 736 PA
Dustin Pedroia 726 PA
Justin Morneau 712 PA
Michael Young 708 PA
Raul Ibanez 707 PA
Chase Utley 707 PA
Akinori Iwamura 707 PA
Carlos Beltran 706 PA
Josh Hamilton 704 PA
Brian Roberts 704 PA
Adrian Gonzalez 700 PA
Ryan Howard 700 PA

I think there's a nice mixture of lead off hitters and sluggers here. Mostly just good durable hitters (as per the idea behind using it as one of the 5 offensive scoring categories)
fantasyfiend
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 666
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:59 pm

Matthias wrote:Quick caveat: I realized I was looking at total Win Shares and roto doesn't look at defense. If you take out Mauer's defensive contribution, he falls in the list but he's still around top 20. I'm getting all this from The Hardball Times. And yes, there are other players who were high in Win Shares that were not projected high by BP in 2008 (Hamilton, McLouth, Ludwick), but I used Mauer as an example because I don't think his production was really that far off of his norm.


I dont see the point behind using Win Shares.

I'm not trying to precisely duplicate a players fantasy contribution to "real life", and if I were, Win Shares wouldn't be a metric I'd be looking to use for a benchmark.

I think using UZR for defense, and wOBA for offense and translating those metrics to Runs would be the best methodology.

But since we don't incorporate defense (as you pointed out), it's irrelevant.
fantasyfiend
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 666
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:02 pm

Joe Mauer would be a top catcher for sure. I think comparing him to Catchers, and not the rest of the players in the player pool would be the best way to look at it.
fantasyfiend
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 666
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby BritSox » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:05 pm

Fantasy sports involve nerdy guys in glasses winning trophies with footballs, baseball mitts, etc, on them.

It's unrealistic. Deal with it.
Image
BritSox
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) DrafterLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5223
Joined: 5 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: You don't care, do you? No... because you're unconscious.

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:13 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:Here is the top 15 in PA in 2008:

Jose Reyes 763 PA
Ichiro Suzuki 749 PA
Grady Sizemore 745 PA
David Wright 736 PA
Dustin Pedroia 726 PA
Justin Morneau 712 PA
Michael Young 708 PA
Raul Ibanez 707 PA
Chase Utley 707 PA
Akinori Iwamura 707 PA
Carlos Beltran 706 PA
Josh Hamilton 704 PA
Brian Roberts 704 PA
Adrian Gonzalez 700 PA
Ryan Howard 700 PA

I think there's a nice mixture of lead off hitters and sluggers here. Mostly just good durable hitters (as per the idea behind using it as one of the 5 offensive scoring categories)

Not really. I don't know everyone's lineup, but I think it goes.....
Reyes: leadoff
Ichiro: leadoff
Grady: leadoff
Wright: #3
Pedroia: #2 (although he got shifted to #4 near mid-season)
Morneau: #4
Young: leadoff
Ibanez: #4
Utley: #3 with some time at #2
Iwamura: leadoff
Beltran: primarily #4 with some time at #5
Hamilton: #4
Roberts: leadoff
A-Gon: #4
Howard: #4

That's slanted to the guys at the top with some names (Young, Iwamura) that you really have to question the value of having a stat that they're in the top 10 in. Also, you have to consider the scope of marginal contributions. If there's a big bulge of hitters who get around 700 ABs then those marginal ABs provided by the ones at the top are very valuable.

At this point, I think the real answer is that your aim is:
#4: Prove to the Cafe that the 5x5 statistics I came up with are the best and have everyone say so.

You've gotten constructive criticism and suggestions and basically rebuffed every attempt.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:20 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:I dont see the point behind using Win Shares.

I'm not trying to precisely duplicate a players fantasy contribution to "real life", and if I were, Win Shares wouldn't be a metric I'd be looking to use for a benchmark.

fantasyfiend wrote:I want to balance all of the factors into my stat categories.

1. balance that requires speed/power to be accurately weighted. I dont want a lineup of all jason giambi's (he's valuable in real life, but it isn't fun to ignore speedy/toolsy types that are a big part of baseball).
2. i want a lot of the obstacles and challenges major league GMs face (position scarcity: 2B, SS, C, CF) incorporated.

If you're trying to balance the proper weighting between speed, power, and positional scarcity, Win Shares (at least the offensive ones) are exactly what is your best metric for that. My point is that if your system does not even show up in the top 100 players someone who is in the top 20, then it is not very well calibrated. It's not enough to compare it to the arbitrary nature of 5x5 since that's not what you're (ostensibly) trying to do.
0-3 to 4-3. Worst choke in the history of baseball. Enough said.
Matthias
General Manager
General Manager


Posts: 4860
Joined: 16 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 4:47 pm

Not really. I don't know everyone's lineup, but I think it goes.....
Reyes: leadoff
Ichiro: leadoff
Grady: leadoff
Wright: #3
Pedroia: #2 (although he got shifted to #4 near mid-season)
Morneau: #4
Young: leadoff
Ibanez: #4
Utley: #3 with some time at #2
Iwamura: leadoff
Beltran: primarily #4 with some time at #5
Hamilton: #4
Roberts: leadoff
A-Gon: #4
Howard: #4

That's slanted to the guys at the top with some names (Young, Iwamura) that you really have to question the value of having a stat that they're in the top 10 in.


Leading the league in PAs isn't luck, it takes durability, good defense, good offense, manager's trust, etc. Managers don't leave in bad fielders, or bad hitters, when games are at their highest leverage. Players with these many PAs played almost everyday, and are rarely ever subbed/pinch hitted for. I think it's a fitting reflection of skill, and balances the other categories out, well.

BTW: Michael Young is a #2 hitter.

You have to consider the scope of marginal contributions. If there's a big bulge of hitters who get around 700 ABs then those marginal ABs provided by the ones at the top are very valuable.


I don't see how this is any more relevant than any other category we'd hypothetically be using.

At this point, I think the real answer is that your aim is:
#4: Prove to the Cafe that the 5x5 statistics I came up with are the best and have everyone say so.

You've gotten constructive criticism and suggestions and basically rebuffed every attempt.


Back and forth debate over fantasy baseball strategy is what this message board is/was built on. I don't see the harm in challenging eachothers opinions. We obviously both feel strongly about certain things that make it worth defending our perspective.

I've gotten some great feedback here, and am looking forward to even more great feedback. I especially like Big0rhts idea of substituting SLG with isoP, as it's a better reflection of power, and doesn't overlap with the other categories as much as SLG%.
fantasyfiend
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 666
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Oct. 22
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Francisco at Kansas City
(8:07 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact