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Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby KCollins1304 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:07 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:J353, it's a bit ironic that you are the one responding to his post, as I think it was targeted to you. Matthias offered a valuable perspective, all you've done is cheer leaded and haven't brought an original point or angle to the thread.


I don't think J353 is someone whose toes you want to step on and call unhelpful. HIs spreadsheet that pretty much everyone uses is one of the most valuable things offered at the Cafe, which I can't imagine how many hours took him to put together. So no, I don't think you get to tell him that he isn't helpful.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:08 pm

Well, to give you positive direction, where exactly are you trying to go?

You started out saying you were trying to accurately value the various skill sets that go into making a baseball player. You later said that you were looking to eliminate luck and emphasize predictability in your fantasy league. But you added the caveat that you wanted to balance the stats to make it fun and competitive. Honestly, all these goals go in different directions.

Some valuable baseball skill sets are more predictable than others. If you check out this link you'll see the year-to-year correlations in pitching statistics. Groundball percentage is the most predictable, but I don't know if you want to use that as one of your stats. Saves are relatively predictable as they're primarily a function of opportunity, but the SABR guys have been saying for years that the existence of the save makes managers misuse their bullpens. This guy calculates that Stolen Bases and Strike Outs are among the most predictable hitting stats year-to-year, but I don't think you would want K's as one of your stats and as previously discussed, Stolen Bases are pretty universally overvalued as a component piece in the making of an effective hitter.

So again, you need to figure out what you're trying to accomplish and then maybe you can get some help on how to do it.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:18 pm

Matthias, you're right, I was a bit unclear, and should've added more bullets to my original post.

I want to balance all of the factors into my stat categories.

1. balance that requires speed/power to be accurately weighted. I dont want a lineup of all jason giambi's (he's valuable in real life, but it isn't fun to ignore speedy/toolsy types that are a big part of baseball).
2. i want a lot of the obstacles and challenges major league GMs face (position scarcity: 2B, SS, C, CF) incorporated.
3. i want to use stats that have strong levels of reliability, and aren't a product of external factors the players don't have control over. But I know some of these stats need to be incorporated so things balance out.

It's a matter of trying to incorporate all 3 above.

I thought the latest (mixed) top 25 dollar values did a pretty good job putting a lot of your original concerns/questions to rest.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:20 pm

I thought about groundball rate, and so far the best way to address its significance is by using the categories: ERA and BB/9. Pitchers that induce a lot of groundballs usually don't walk a lot of batters, and don't give up a lot of runs.

Ks are the most reliable statistic year to year, and show levels of reliability at smaller sample sizes. I know GB% isn't too far behind, though.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:30 pm

J35J wrote:I don't know, I thought Matthias did a good job of showing why the system he had in place was flawed and gave examples and suggestions. :-?

Stop stealing my thundah, sucka :-b

fantasyfiend wrote:I agree, very constructive post, and although I don't agree with a lot of it, it's constructive, and will be incorporated as I tweak the categories.

What don't you agree with? Certainly I'm not 100% balls on here, as I don't think this is something that has 'the' answer to, but I'm curious what you disagree with specifically.

fantasyfiend wrote:3. i want to use stats that have strong levels of reliability, and aren't a product of external factors the players don't have control over. But I know some of these stats need to be incorporated so things balance out.

But you're using stats like OBP and SLG, where the very rate you're trying to eliminate due to luck, AVG, is a large portion of each -- it's right within their very equations. I'm not sure if they're available, but OBA and ISO would be more accurate measures, and even then you might as well just quantify them with BB and TB; cause while flawed in their own right, they are measuring essentially the same thing, just not in ratio form. Problem here is, if you're going to reward them, you ought to use H as a category, and we're not really where we want to be, though we are getting further away from the standard 5x5, certainly.

I think at the very least, if you're trying to achieve Goal 2, simulating obstacles and challenges, you have to use Net SV (SV - BS), and Net SB (SB - CS), because standard 5x5 has no repercussion for a caught stealing or a blown save other than not getting another tally. With these, you get the quantifiable portion of the SV and the SB, but those who do not convert on these as frequently as they ought to are docked appropriately.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:34 pm

Well, if you want to get away from stats that players that can't control, you should really look at DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics). DIPS posits that a pitcher has influence over their K's, their BB's, and their HR's. Everything else is basically throwing at the dartboard. So I would yank ERA and consider either HR/At Bat or SLG against. Also I would switch to straight K's from K/9 to move more value to starting pitchers rather than a cast of all relievers.

I still say your speed guys seem overvalued. If you really like quick guys, then make SB's into (SB - 2 X Caught Stealing). This will reward not just the quick guys, but the effective ones. Runs doesn't fit with what you're doing. It's a pretty dependent stat. Maybe consider replacing that with K/PA. It's reliable, it's predictable, and it slightly favors the little guys versus the big swingers.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:47 pm

Matthias wrote:Well, if you want to get away from stats that players that can't control, you should really look at DIPS (Defense Independent Pitching Statistics). DIPS posits that a pitcher has influence over their K's, their BB's, and their HR's. Everything else is basically throwing at the dartboard. So I would yank ERA and consider either HR/At Bat or SLG against. Also I would switch to straight K's from K/9 to move more value to starting pitchers rather than a cast of all relievers.

I still say your speed guys seem overvalued. If you really like quick guys, then make SB's into (SB - 2 X Caught Stealing). This will reward not just the quick guys, but the effective ones. Runs doesn't fit with what you're doing. It's a pretty dependent stat. Maybe consider replacing that with K/PA. It's reliable, it's predictable, and it slightly favors the little guys versus the big swingers.


I've incorporated a lot of DIPS with the Ks and the BB9. I don't believe in HR/9, though, that part of McCracken's DIPS formula is dated.

I think most baseball teams only allow players who are efficient (74% +) to run these days, so I'm not too worried about adding an element for "efficiency" although it was originally in my "plan".

Here is top 25 standard 5x5 (R, RBI, HR, AVG, SB x W, K, WHIP, ERA, S) using PECOTA again:

PLAYER POS $$$
Ramirez, Hanley SS $50.27
Holliday, Matt LF $45.99
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $45.95
Braun, Ryan 3B $45.76
Santana, Johan SP $45.74
Wright, David 3B $44.00
Pujols, Albert 1B $41.34
Soriano, Alfonso LF $37.79
Peavy, Jake SP $36.53
Reyes, Jose SS $35.87
Lee, Derrek 1B $33.55
Howard, Ryan 1B $33.03
Sizemore, Grady CF $32.47
Ortiz, David DH $32.45
Young, Chris CF $31.99
Utley, Chase 2B $31.79
Teixeira, Mark 1B $30.57
Jones, Chipper 3B $29.93
Fielder, Prince 1B $29.44
Cabrera, Miguel 3B $29.05
Roberts, Brian 2B $28.39
Crawford, Carl LF $28.08
Sabathia, C.c. SP $26.10
Milledge, Lastings RF $25.46
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $24.33

here is my proposed system:

PLAYER POS $$$
Ramirez, Hanley SS $50.94
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $46.75
Wright, David 3B $45.49
Pujols, Albert 1B $45.29
Holliday, Matt LF $39.24
Braun, Ryan 3B $38.52
Reyes, Jose SS $37.91
Santana, Johan SP $37.06
Ortiz, David DH $35.36
Sizemore, Grady CF $34.00
Roberts, Brian 2B $33.72
Jones, Chipper 3B $32.94
Lee, Derrek 1B $32.69
Peavy, Jake SP $32.13
Utley, Chase 2B $31.35
Teixeira, Mark 1B $31.17
Howard, Ryan 1B $30.58
Young, Chris CF $30.49
Fielder, Prince 1B $28.63
Dunn, Adam LF $27.76
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $27.40
Soriano, Alfonso LF $26.82
Crawford, Carl LF $26.80
Berkman, Lance 1B,RF $25.92

I don't see a lot of difference in terms of speedy types.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:57 pm

Go down to the next 75.

Also, one thing not yet commented on is that PA favors leadoff guys versus #4 or #5 hitters as they're have incrementally more ABs.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:08 pm

Matthias,

I think the best hitters in the game (guys with good OBP/SLG) will likely get the most PAs. Lead off hitters are usually speedy types, but they don't always have the best OBP/SLG ... so there is some trade off there. I think leadoff types, that don't have great OBP/SLG get subbed in more than a guy like David Wright or Alex Rodriguez who always provides a lot of offensive value.

Speedy lead off types that have power and obp (Sizemore) would have tremendous value in a format like this, and I think that translates well to real life. Sizemore is one of the most valuable players in the game right now, given his productivity and his position (CF).

Lets look at the top 100 for each:

first up (standard 5x5 old fashioned)

PLAYER POS $$$
Ramirez, Hanley SS $50.27
Holliday, Matt LF $45.99
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $45.95
Braun, Ryan 3B $45.76
Santana, Johan SP $45.74
Wright, David 3B $44.00
Pujols, Albert 1B $41.34
Soriano, Alfonso LF $37.79
Peavy, Jake SP $36.53
Reyes, Jose SS $35.87
Lee, Derrek 1B $33.55
Howard, Ryan 1B $33.03
Sizemore, Grady CF $32.47
Ortiz, David DH $32.45
Young, Chris CF $31.99
Utley, Chase 2B $31.79
Teixeira, Mark 1B $30.57
Jones, Chipper 3B $29.93
Fielder, Prince 1B $29.44
Cabrera, Miguel 3B $29.05
Roberts, Brian 2B $28.39
Crawford, Carl LF $28.08
Sabathia, C.c. SP $26.10
Milledge, Lastings RF $25.46
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $24.33
Ramirez, Aramis 3B $24.31
Guerrero, Vladimir RF,DH $24.28
Hamels, Cole SP $23.82
Dunn, Adam LF $23.64
Rollins, Jimmy SS $23.25
Berkman, Lance 1B,RF $23.21
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B $22.88
Beltran, Carlos CF $22.55
Lee, Carlos LF $22.37
Smoltz, John SP $22.33
Kemp, Matthew RF $22.19
Street, Huston RP $22.06
Bedard, Erik SP $21.59
Webb, Brandon SP $21.16
Pence, Hunter CF $20.62
Tulowitzki, Troy SS $20.58
Kinsler, Ian 2B $19.95
Hart, Corey CF,RF $19.75
Ellsbury, Jacoby LF $19.54
Harang, Aaron SP $18.28
Atkins, Garrett 3B $18.17
Swisher, Nicholas 1B,CF,RF $18.14
Upton, B.J. 2B,CF $18.03
Kazmir, Scott SP $17.74
Soria, Joakim RP $17.52
Rodriguez, Francisco RP $16.79
Bay, Jason LF $16.78
Beckett, Josh SP $16.71
Vazquez, Javier SP $16.57
Stairs, Matt 1B,LF $16.52
Nathan, Joe RP $16.50
Capps, Matt RP $16.48
Hafner, Travis DH $16.45
Rivera, Mariano RP $16.45
Haren, Dan SP $16.24
Saito, Takashi RP $16.10
Fukudome, Kosuke RF $16.03
Jeter, Derek SS $15.92
Hunter, Torii CF $15.85
Helton, Todd 1B $15.65
Pena, Carlos 1B $15.62
Francoeur, Jeffrey RF $15.22
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B $14.94
Figgins, Chone 3B $14.77
Putz, J.J. RP $14.74
Wagner, Billy RP $14.73
Markakis, Nick RF $14.45
Ordonez, Magglio RF $14.44
Cordero, Francisco RP $14.02
Valverde, Jose RP $13.69
Suzuki, Ichiro CF $13.66
Rios, Alexis CF,RF $13.39
Byrnes, Eric LF,CF,RF $13.31
Shields, James SP $13.30
Liriano, Francisco SP $13.26
Young, Delmon CF,RF $13.20
Phillips, Brandon 2B $13.10
Jones, Adam LF $12.92
Chamberlain, Joba SP $12.63
Furcal, Rafael SS $12.53
Uggla, Dan 2B $12.53
Gordon, Alex 1B,3B $12.48
Soriano, Rafael RP $12.47
Beltre, Adrian 3B $12.11
Martin, Russell C $11.74
Winn, Randy LF,CF,RF $11.28
Jones, Andruw CF $11.23
Abreu, Bob RF $10.92
Verlander, Justin SP $10.92
Oswalt, Roy SP $10.92
Guillen, Carlos 1B,SS $10.78
Willingham, Josh LF $10.68
Encarnacion, Edwin 3B $10.57
Burnett, A.J. SP $10.45
Weeks, Rickie 2B $10.25

Next up: (my proposed 5x5):

Ramirez, Hanley SS $50.94
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $46.75
Wright, David 3B $45.49
Pujols, Albert 1B $45.29
Holliday, Matt LF $39.24
Braun, Ryan 3B $38.52
Reyes, Jose SS $37.91
Santana, Johan SP $37.06
Ortiz, David DH $35.36
Sizemore, Grady CF $34.00
Roberts, Brian 2B $33.72
Jones, Chipper 3B $32.94
Lee, Derrek 1B $32.69
Peavy, Jake SP $32.13
Utley, Chase 2B $31.35
Teixeira, Mark 1B $31.17
Howard, Ryan 1B $30.58
Young, Chris CF $30.49
Fielder, Prince 1B $28.63
Dunn, Adam LF $27.76
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $27.40
Soriano, Alfonso LF $26.82
Crawford, Carl LF $26.80
Berkman, Lance 1B,RF $25.92
Fukudome, Kosuke RF $25.54
Cabrera, Miguel 3B $24.80
Milledge, Lastings RF $24.71
Street, Huston RP $24.54
Rollins, Jimmy SS $23.34
Helton, Todd 1B $22.69
Sabathia, C.c. SP $22.05
Ellsbury, Jacoby LF $21.87
Upton, B.J. 2B,CF $21.85
Beltran, Carlos CF $21.39
Soria, Joakim RP $21.04
Rodriguez, Francisco RP $21.04
Figgins, Chone 3B $20.84
Bedard, Erik SP $20.81
Swisher, Nicholas 1B,CF,RF $20.09
Hart, Corey CF,RF $20.07
Capps, Matt RP $19.41
Nathan, Joe RP $19.29
Hamels, Cole SP $19.26
Webb, Brandon SP $19.11
Zimmerman, Ryan 3B $19.08
Saito, Takashi RP $19.02
Kemp, Matthew RF $18.90
Cordero, Francisco RP $18.70
Hafner, Travis DH $18.67
Guerrero, Vladimir RF,DH $18.60
Bay, Jason LF $18.54
Kinsler, Ian 2B $18.49
Rivera, Mariano RP $18.49
Smoltz, John SP $18.41
Valverde, Jose RP $18.30
Tulowitzki, Troy SS $18.24
Wagner, Billy RP $17.50
Ramirez, Aramis 3B $17.46
Putz, J.J. RP $17.18
Pena, Carlos 1B $16.95
Weeks, Rickie 2B $16.95
Jeter, Derek SS $16.66
Abreu, Bob RF $16.37
Harang, Aaron SP $16.22
Pence, Hunter CF $16.19
Lee, Carlos LF $16.11
Atkins, Garrett 3B $16.02
Furcal, Rafael SS $15.33
Kazmir, Scott SP $14.88
Martin, Russell C $14.42
Soriano, Rafael RP $13.83
Burrell, Pat LF $13.78
Haren, Dan SP $13.76
Stairs, Matt 1B,LF $13.60
Suzuki, Ichiro CF $13.19
Ryan, B.j. RP $13.15
Willingham, Josh LF $13.08
Beckett, Josh SP $13.05
Byrnes, Eric LF,CF,RF $12.98
Markakis, Nick RF $12.84
Ordonez, Magglio RF $12.77
Jackson, Conor 1B $12.75
Gordon, Alex 1B,3B $12.60
Jenks, Bobby RP $12.56
Vazquez, Javier SP $12.48
Liriano, Francisco SP $11.89
McLouth, Nathan LF,CF $11.85
Hermida, Jeremy RF $11.68
Thome, Jim DH $11.60
Rios, Alexis CF,RF $11.57
Chamberlain, Joba SP $11.51
Oswalt, Roy SP $11.37
Upton, Justin RF $10.96
Guillen, Carlos 1B,SS $10.85
Hunter, Torii CF $10.55
Hudson, Orlando 2B $10.55
Gonzalez, Adrian 1B $10.36
Pedroia, Dustin 2B $10.35
Youkilis, Kevin 1B $10.18
Lidge, Brad RP $10.15
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby byfrcp » Mon Jan 12, 2009 3:14 pm

Why do you need to keep it 5x5? To incorporate what a good baseball player should be, why not go to 7x7 or 8x8?
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