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Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:16 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:I'm a purist, I want 5x5 roto, im just tired of a lot of the lucky categories that are currently standard.

I don't expect the system to be perfect, and some "realism" might need to be excluded in the interest of keeping things balanced from a fun/competitive fantasy baseball standpoint.

I'm not really going for realism, as much as I'm going for a fantasy league that requires more skill than luck.

If that is your goal, then you're certainly not going to want Runs as one of your categories, as they are as flawed as RBI, which you eliminated.

Many leagues replace Wins with QS to eliminate a portion of luck there, but then your RP lose their value of vulture Wins. Replacing K with K/9 can help bump their value, but then low-K SP get downgraded. Again, the (SV + HLD) category is a nice replacement for SV to counteract this, as well, with at least the Net Saves being preferable over the generic Saves. Same goes for Net SB over SB.

Using SLG as well as OBP counts AVG twice in your 5x5, when your goal was to eliminate it, since you don't like the luck that is factored into it. You could try using BB and TB instead, but those have their flaws as well.

There is no perfect system. Find what works for you and your league, and have at it. ;-D

I recommend again, checking out points leagues, as you can tailor them very specifically to cater to how you want your league set up. ;-D
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:27 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:Thanks for the response. You bring up some valid points.

But, lets remember, these are 2008 projections (made in the offseason this time last year). Briant Roberts, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Elssbury and Chone had very favorable forecasts).

Jokim Soria came off a career year, and was projected by PECOTA to be the Royals full time closer. He has excellent peripherals (great K/9, great bb/9), and was projected to rack up 30+ saves. He's a very valuable player in real baseball, it's more a testament to how underrated he is, than how bad the categories I'm proposing are, IMO.

Oh I get that these are 2008 forecasts.

I just would disagree that the speed guys mentioned, with maybe the exception of Crawford, belong anywhere in the top 20 if you were doing a salary-free, restart-the-MLB, one-year, franchise draft. I love the Red Sox, but if I had to flip off the top of my head on where I would choose Ellsbury for 2008 if I was doing a major-league roster, I would have to ballpark it at somewhere around 150. Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran.... these are all names, among others, missing from this list. I'm sorry, the bias is not in 2008 projections vs 2009 but in the values you're inputting.

Ditto on Soria. Hey, he might be a great reliever, but even the most ace reliever does not have as much value to an MLB franchise as an ace starter. I don't care if it's Soria or Papelbon or K-Rod at his most nasty. The market pays them more. They earn more in Win Shares: the top starter for WS last year was Lincecum at 27; the top reliever was Mariano with 17. Not including Lincecum, there were 12 other starters who earned more in WS than Mariano. Soria, like all relievers, is not properly valued with your current system.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby J35J » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:32 pm

I'll just echo everything Matthias has said...he's right on!
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:40 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:I'm a purist, I want 5x5 roto, im just tired of a lot of the lucky categories that are currently standard.

I don't expect the system to be perfect, and some "realism" might need to be excluded in the interest of keeping things balanced from a fun/competitive fantasy baseball standpoint.

I'm not really going for realism, as much as I'm going for a fantasy league that requires more skill than luck.

If that is your goal, then you're certainly not going to want Runs as one of your categories, as they are as flawed as RBI, which you eliminated.

Many leagues replace Wins with QS to eliminate a portion of luck there, but then your RP lose their value of vulture Wins. Replacing K with K/9 can help bump their value, but then low-K SP get downgraded. Again, the (SV + HLD) category is a nice replacement for SV to counteract this, as well, with at least the Net Saves being preferable over the generic Saves. Same goes for Net SB over SB.

Using SLG as well as OBP counts AVG twice in your 5x5, when your goal was to eliminate it, since you don't like the luck that is factored into it. You could try using BB and TB instead, but those have their flaws as well.

There is no perfect system. Find what works for you and your league, and have at it. ;-D

I recommend again, checking out points leagues, as you can tailor them very specifically to cater to how you want your league set up. ;-D

I think this is the kind of post we need more of in this thread. We can all sit here and say what we don't like, but I think its more valuable to the original poster and to the discussion at large, if more suggestions or ideas are thrown out there.

To follow your post here Bigh0rt, what about trying out OPS instead of OBP? With OPS you get your OBP and your SLG...
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:41 pm

we were looking at AL only (my bad).

Here is mixed:

PLAYER POS $$$
Ramirez, Hanley SS $50.94
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $46.75
Wright, David 3B $45.49
Pujols, Albert 1B $45.29
Holliday, Matt LF $39.24
Braun, Ryan 3B $38.52
Reyes, Jose SS $37.91
Santana, Johan SP $37.06
Ortiz, David DH $35.36
Sizemore, Grady CF $34.00
Roberts, Brian 2B $33.72
Jones, Chipper 3B $32.94
Lee, Derrek 1B $32.69
Peavy, Jake SP $32.13
Utley, Chase 2B $31.35
Teixeira, Mark 1B $31.17
Howard, Ryan 1B $30.58
Young, Chris CF $30.49
Fielder, Prince 1B $28.63
Dunn, Adam LF $27.76
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $27.40
Soriano, Alfonso LF $26.82
Crawford, Carl LF $26.80
Berkman, Lance 1B,RF $25.92
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:45 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:I'm a purist, I want 5x5 roto, im just tired of a lot of the lucky categories that are currently standard.

I don't expect the system to be perfect, and some "realism" might need to be excluded in the interest of keeping things balanced from a fun/competitive fantasy baseball standpoint.

I'm not really going for realism, as much as I'm going for a fantasy league that requires more skill than luck.

If that is your goal, then you're certainly not going to want Runs as one of your categories, as they are as flawed as RBI, which you eliminated.

Many leagues replace Wins with QS to eliminate a portion of luck there, but then your RP lose their value of vulture Wins. Replacing K with K/9 can help bump their value, but then low-K SP get downgraded. Again, the (SV + HLD) category is a nice replacement for SV to counteract this, as well, with at least the Net Saves being preferable over the generic Saves. Same goes for Net SB over SB.

Using SLG as well as OBP counts AVG twice in your 5x5, when your goal was to eliminate it, since you don't like the luck that is factored into it. You could try using BB and TB instead, but those have their flaws as well.

There is no perfect system. Find what works for you and your league, and have at it. ;-D

I recommend again, checking out points leagues, as you can tailor them very specifically to cater to how you want your league set up. ;-D

I think this is the kind of post we need more of in this thread. We can all sit here and say what we don't like, but I think its more valuable to the original poster and to the discussion at large, if more suggestions or ideas are thrown out there.

To follow your post here Bigh0rt, what about trying out OPS instead of OBP? With OPS you get your OBP and your SLG...


I agree, very constructive post, and although I don't agree with a lot of it, it's constructive, and will be incorporated as I tweak the categories.

SLG puts significant more weight on power, so it has some connections to AVG but it's far more reliable year to year, than AVG in its own right. OBP is basically PA/out. I like that it includes walks, which are a significant part of the game. I agree with maybe going 4x4 or 4x5 and combining the two into OPS.

I left "SVs" because people love them, and it's fun following/chasing closers. If it weren't for this point, they'd be gone, and i'd go 4x4.

BB/9 and K/9 still make middle relievers valuable. But i get the idea of SV+HLDS, and think it's a very interesting idea.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby J35J » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:52 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:I'm a purist, I want 5x5 roto, im just tired of a lot of the lucky categories that are currently standard.

I don't expect the system to be perfect, and some "realism" might need to be excluded in the interest of keeping things balanced from a fun/competitive fantasy baseball standpoint.

I'm not really going for realism, as much as I'm going for a fantasy league that requires more skill than luck.

If that is your goal, then you're certainly not going to want Runs as one of your categories, as they are as flawed as RBI, which you eliminated.

Many leagues replace Wins with QS to eliminate a portion of luck there, but then your RP lose their value of vulture Wins. Replacing K with K/9 can help bump their value, but then low-K SP get downgraded. Again, the (SV + HLD) category is a nice replacement for SV to counteract this, as well, with at least the Net Saves being preferable over the generic Saves. Same goes for Net SB over SB.

Using SLG as well as OBP counts AVG twice in your 5x5, when your goal was to eliminate it, since you don't like the luck that is factored into it. You could try using BB and TB instead, but those have their flaws as well.

There is no perfect system. Find what works for you and your league, and have at it. ;-D

I recommend again, checking out points leagues, as you can tailor them very specifically to cater to how you want your league set up. ;-D

I think this is the kind of post we need more of in this thread. We can all sit here and say what we don't like, but I think its more valuable to the original poster and to the discussion at large, if more suggestions or ideas are thrown out there.

To follow your post here Bigh0rt, what about trying out OPS instead of OBP? With OPS you get your OBP and your SLG...


I don't know, I thought Matthias did a good job of showing why the system he had in place was flawed and gave examples and suggestions. :-?
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby baizboll » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:54 pm

Your attempt to replace standard roto is something I have been pushing my friends toward for quite awhile. Personally I don't like being restricted to 5 categories for hitters/pitchers. I also prefer not to use any categories that are team dependent like runs, RBIs, saves, wins. So I applaud your attempt to move away from the standard 5x5 even though I wouldn't use some of the categories you use. But everybody has their own opinions on what stats they favor. I'd like to set up a 7x7 or 8x8 and try to find categories that best represent an individual's performance that is least effected by the team he is on or the players that surround him in the lineup. Good discussion. ;-D
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:56 pm

J353, it's a bit ironic that you are the one responding to his post, as I think it was targeted to you. Matthias offered a valuable perspective, all you've done is cheer leaded and haven't brought an original point or angle to the thread.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:00 pm

J35J wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:If that is your goal, then you're certainly not going to want Runs as one of your categories, as they are as flawed as RBI, which you eliminated.

Many leagues replace Wins with QS to eliminate a portion of luck there, but then your RP lose their value of vulture Wins. Replacing K with K/9 can help bump their value, but then low-K SP get downgraded. Again, the (SV + HLD) category is a nice replacement for SV to counteract this, as well, with at least the Net Saves being preferable over the generic Saves. Same goes for Net SB over SB.

Using SLG as well as OBP counts AVG twice in your 5x5, when your goal was to eliminate it, since you don't like the luck that is factored into it. You could try using BB and TB instead, but those have their flaws as well.

There is no perfect system. Find what works for you and your league, and have at it. ;-D

I recommend again, checking out points leagues, as you can tailor them very specifically to cater to how you want your league set up. ;-D

I think this is the kind of post we need more of in this thread. We can all sit here and say what we don't like, but I think its more valuable to the original poster and to the discussion at large, if more suggestions or ideas are thrown out there.

To follow your post here Bigh0rt, what about trying out OPS instead of OBP? With OPS you get your OBP and your SLG...


I don't know, I thought Matthias did a good job of showing why the system he had in place was flawed and gave examples and suggestions. :-?

I don't disagree with you, I just chose the other post to respond to. Matthias has brought up some very intersting points.

Fantasy fiend, why the 2 LF and 2 RF?
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