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Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:54 pm

If you're going to go with a setup like this, I think you ought to go with a points league, with appropriate valuations. I think you'd end up with more accurate performance rankings, if you allocated your points adequately; given that's what you appear to be seeking.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby AquaMan2342 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:58 pm

bigh0rt wrote:If you're going to go with a setup like this, I think you ought to go with a points league, with appropriate valuations. I think you'd end up with more accurate performance rankings, if you allocated your points adequately; given that's what you appear to be seeking.


I agree. The idea is interesting though....good thread.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:00 pm

fantasyfiend wrote:I have an idea for new 5x5 categories that I feel accomplish the same competitive balance, putting accurate weight on the different types of skill sets that comprise a current major league team.

You might have new categories, but it's pretty presumptive to say that these are accurate weights for the skill sets.

* The most valuable thing a player can do is get on base. If you were trying for "accurate weight[s]" you would address this.
* Stolen bases are heavily overrated and although their value depends upon the game situation, on average they only have positive value once your steal rates goes over 70%.
* Runs is pretty positional- and team-dependent. I don't see Runs as a "skill set."
* Your pitching stats are completely skewed towards closers. If I was in your league, I would only draft closers and maybe 2 or 3 starters that were utter aces. But even then, probably not. You have 3 rate stats, 1 closer-only stat, and 1 stat that rewards starters more than relievers. In reality, an ace starter is much more valuable than an ace closer: Sabathia is making $23MM or whatever a year and I'm not sure on what the top closer is making, but it's around half that.
* Why BB/9 vs say WHIP? Why do you believe that a walk deserves its own category but hits shouldn't factor into it at all?

I appreciate what you think you're trying to do, but I don't think you've done a very good job doing it.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby smalls2598 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:01 pm

Seeing Nick Swisher or Travis Hafner in any top 25 list scares me.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby mbuser » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:03 pm

Matthias wrote:
fantasyfiend wrote:I have an idea for new 5x5 categories that I feel accomplish the same competitive balance, putting accurate weight on the different types of skill sets that comprise a current major league team.

You might have new categories, but it's pretty presumptive to say that these are accurate weights for the skill sets.

that's pretty much what i was going to post. if 'realistic' is your goal, then i don't see how you can end up with just 5x5
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:05 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:If you're going to go with a setup like this, I think you ought to go with a points league, with appropriate valuations. I think you'd end up with more accurate performance rankings, if you allocated your points adequately; given that's what you appear to be seeking.


I agree. The idea is interesting though....good thread.

Oh certainly. People have been trying to tweak 5x5 for some time in an attempt to make the categories more relevant and realistic. From replacing K with K/9, SB with Net SB, replacing a pitching cat with K/BB, using OBP or OPS instead of AVG, etc.

I don't remember exactly what categories each provider offers, but I think having a RP general cat like (SV + HLD) lends itself to making them more important without having to use K/9, although that is another option; but it penalizes low-K SP at the same time, which the (SV + HLD) cat would not.

There are strides that can be made to address the faults of standard 5x5, but I think any categorical system that really wants to address these faults needs to expand beyond 5x5, regardless of what categories you are using.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Matthias » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:05 pm

Proving my point....
fantasyfiend wrote:I punched in these categories and generated dollar values using PECOTA's 2008 projection system. Here are the top 25, let me know what you think:

* It's worth noting that 2 RF, 1 CF, 2 LF are required in the hypothetical league I used to generate these dollar values. Position scarcity (based on these permutations) might affect the rankings/dollar values slightly:

* The dollar values are based on PECOTA's 2008 player forecasts (its 1 year outdated)

PLAYER POS $$$
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $48.48
Roberts, Brian 2B $42.98
Sizemore, Grady CF $39.57
Crawford, Carl LF $38.50
Ortiz, David DH $37.41
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $36.77
Ellsbury, Jacoby LF $34.86
Figgins, Chone 3B $34.19
Upton, B.J. 2B,CF $33.85
Street, Huston RP $32.81
Soria, Joakim RP $30.79

Cabrera, Miguel 3B $30.16
Rodriguez, Francisco RP $29.65
Kinsler, Ian 2B $29.54
Sabathia, C.c. SP $28.70
Nathan, Joe RP $27.64
Abreu, Bob RF $27.20
Bedard, Erik SP $26.69
Jeter, Derek SS $26.51
Swisher, Nicholas 1B,CF,RF $26.47
Guerrero, Vladimir RF,DH $26.18
Suzuki, Ichiro CF $25.60
Rivera, Mariano RP $25.58
Hafner, Travis DH $25.46

Once your value calculations come out with Joakim Soria being more valuable than CC Sabathia (or, well, every single starter in the MLB), your weights are not accurate.

Also notice how these valuations are so heavily skewed towards speed guys (Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chone Figgins, et al). Those guys are quality players, but are they 4 of the top 20 or whatever this is players in the MLB? Not hardly.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby neoforce » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:07 pm

Matthias wrote: ... but it's pretty presumptive to say that these are accurate weights for the skill sets.
...
* Stolen bases are heavily overrated and although their value depends upon the game situation, on average they only have positive value once your steal rates goes over 70%.
...


Great overall post by Matthias, I'm just picking one piece to quote because the first thing that jumped into my head was that one thing you probably have to do is change SB to SB-CS. That would help some.

I like some tweaking of stats, (as bigh0rt said) like OBP instead of AVE, or SB-CS instead of SB. But in general, I also agree with jake_harv88. Its fantasy baseball, it doesn't have to be a perfect mirror of big league value.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:09 pm

I'm a purist, I want 5x5 roto, im just tired of a lot of the lucky categories that are currently standard.

I don't expect the system to be perfect, and some "realism" might need to be excluded in the interest of keeping things balanced from a fun/competitive fantasy baseball standpoint.

I'm not really going for realism, as much as I'm going for a fantasy league that requires more skill than luck.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:13 pm

Matthias wrote:Proving my point....
fantasyfiend wrote:I punched in these categories and generated dollar values using PECOTA's 2008 projection system. Here are the top 25, let me know what you think:

* It's worth noting that 2 RF, 1 CF, 2 LF are required in the hypothetical league I used to generate these dollar values. Position scarcity (based on these permutations) might affect the rankings/dollar values slightly:

* The dollar values are based on PECOTA's 2008 player forecasts (its 1 year outdated)

PLAYER POS $$$
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $48.48
Roberts, Brian 2B $42.98
Sizemore, Grady CF $39.57
Crawford, Carl LF $38.50
Ortiz, David DH $37.41
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $36.77
Ellsbury, Jacoby LF $34.86
Figgins, Chone 3B $34.19
Upton, B.J. 2B,CF $33.85
Street, Huston RP $32.81
Soria, Joakim RP $30.79

Cabrera, Miguel 3B $30.16
Rodriguez, Francisco RP $29.65
Kinsler, Ian 2B $29.54
Sabathia, C.c. SP $28.70
Nathan, Joe RP $27.64
Abreu, Bob RF $27.20
Bedard, Erik SP $26.69
Jeter, Derek SS $26.51
Swisher, Nicholas 1B,CF,RF $26.47
Guerrero, Vladimir RF,DH $26.18
Suzuki, Ichiro CF $25.60
Rivera, Mariano RP $25.58
Hafner, Travis DH $25.46

Once your value calculations come out with Joakim Soria being more valuable than CC Sabathia (or, well, every single starter in the MLB), your weights are not accurate.

Also notice how these valuations are so heavily skewed towards speed guys (Brian Roberts, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Chone Figgins, et al). Those guys are quality players, but are they 4 of the top 20 or whatever this is players in the MLB? Not hardly.


Thanks for the response. You bring up some valid points.

But, lets remember, these are 2008 projections (made in the offseason this time last year). Briant Roberts, Carl Crawford, Jacoby Elssbury and Chone had very favorable forecasts).

Jokim Soria came off a career year, and was projected by PECOTA to be the Royals full time closer. He has excellent peripherals (great K/9, great bb/9), and was projected to rack up 30+ saves. He's a very valuable player in real baseball, it's more a testament to how underrated he is, than how bad the categories I'm proposing are, IMO.
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