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Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

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Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:26 pm

I have an idea for new 5x5 categories that I feel accomplish the same competitive balance, putting accurate weight on the different types of skill sets that comprise a current major league team.

Batting: Plate Appearances, OBP, ISO, R, SB

* OBP takes care of contact/walks
* Isolated Power takes care of power/xtra base hits (formula is AVG-SLG%)
* SB takes care of basestealers (not as important in "real life" but a fun stat to have in fantasy leagues)
* R (one of the stats i'm on the bubble about, but I thought I'd add it to balance out power types with speedy types)
* PA puts value on players that get a lot of PAs (durable, healthy, very productive real life players)

Pitching: Innings Pitched, K/9, BB/9, ERA, SV

* SV - fun category to chase, it's fantasy baseball pastime/tradition
* IP - puts a lot of weight on valuable innings eaters, but they need to be good pitchers, because K/9 and BB/9 will suffer if you just throw any junk pitcher in.
* K/9 - Nice rate stat that accurately incorporates an important part of the game, and keeps owners honest, by not streaming sucky pitchers who dont strike anybody out.
* BB/9 - Almost identical to K/9 .. but makes control pitchers who eat innings valuable.
* ERA (this one is like "R", i'm not too sure about using it, I thought about using WHIP, but I thought that stat would have too much overlap with BB/9).

It's important that everything is balanced so that relief pitchers or starting pitchers carry accurate value to a team. Nobody wants to play in a fantasy league where everybody drafts only starting pitchers, or only drafts relief pitchers. Or only drafts power hitters, and ignores speedy types.

I'm thinking of commishing a league with these categories, and was hoping the fantasy baseball cafe community can help me optimize these categories. Or add some suggestions to the methodology here.
Last edited by fantasyfiend on Mon Jan 12, 2009 5:49 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:30 pm

IP + PA = enough streaming to flood the Mississippi River
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:32 pm

My initial comment is that in your effort to make things more realistic, you've done nothing to address the use of middle relievers. You should change saves to something that is a combination of saves and holds (2*saves+holds?), even possibly removing vulture wins from the equation somehow.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:34 pm

But what if you make all Adds/Drops a 3 day waiver process (it costs you waiver priority to pick up a player, and it takes 3 days for the waiver process)

I'm thinking of running this in deeper leagues, too.

10 Team NL/AL only redraft leagues.

To combat streaming I can either put a cap on add/drop, or change it to weekly lineups if the "waiver system" isn't sufficient enough.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:37 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:My initial comment is that in your effort to make things more realistic, you've done nothing to address the use of middle relievers. You should change saves to something that is a combination of saves and holds (2*saves+holds?), even possibly removing vulture wins from the equation somehow.


Thanks for the response.

I think good middle relievers will have a lot of value because of their ability to prevent walks (bb/9), and get a lot of strikeouts (k/9). They also add innings pitched.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby ayebatter » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:38 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:IP + PA = enough streaming to flood the Mississippi River


Yep, you would either need to limit FA moves or institute FAAB to prevent this, and it will still happen to some extent.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby jake_harv88 » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:40 pm

when I sign up for fantasy sports, I dont sign up to pretend like I'm managing a real baseball team. So yeah I'm good with standard 5x5...
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:45 pm

It doesn't make a lot of sense to throw junk into your active line up (aka streaming) when there are several rate stats that can hurt you: OBP & SLG. A team wouldn't want to kill their scores in the other categories by throwing waiver wire fodder into their lineup. Same for pitchers. You don't want a bunch of waiver wire junk when K/9, BB/9, are being accumulated.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:48 pm

jake_harv88 wrote:when I sign up for fantasy sports, I dont sign up to pretend like I'm managing a real baseball team. So yeah I'm good with standard 5x5...


Interesting perspective.

IMO, my intentions aren't to simulate a real baseball team. I'm trying to find a system that puts more emphasis on metrics that correlate from year to year. I think this makes the fantasy game more competitive, and reduces the amount of luck involved.
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Re: Standard 5x5 is unrealistic

Postby fantasyfiend » Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:53 pm

I punched in these categories and generated dollar values using PECOTA's 2008 projection system. Here are the top 25, let me know what you think:

* It's worth noting that 2 RF, 1 CF, 2 LF are required in the hypothetical league I used to generate these dollar values. Position scarcity (based on these permutations) might affect the rankings/dollar values slightly:

* The dollar values are based on PECOTA's 2008 player forecasts (its 1 year outdated)

PLAYER POS $$$
Rodriguez, Alex 3B $48.48
Roberts, Brian 2B $42.98
Sizemore, Grady CF $39.57
Crawford, Carl LF $38.50
Ortiz, David DH $37.41
Papelbon, Jonathan RP $36.77
Ellsbury, Jacoby LF $34.86
Figgins, Chone 3B $34.19
Upton, B.J. 2B,CF $33.85
Street, Huston RP $32.81
Soria, Joakim RP $30.79
Cabrera, Miguel 3B $30.16
Rodriguez, Francisco RP $29.65
Kinsler, Ian 2B $29.54
Sabathia, C.c. SP $28.70
Nathan, Joe RP $27.64
Abreu, Bob RF $27.20
Bedard, Erik SP $26.69
Jeter, Derek SS $26.51
Swisher, Nicholas 1B,CF,RF $26.47
Guerrero, Vladimir RF,DH $26.18
Suzuki, Ichiro CF $25.60
Rivera, Mariano RP $25.58
Hafner, Travis DH $25.46
Last edited by fantasyfiend on Mon Jan 12, 2009 12:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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