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Saito now with the Sox

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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby thedude » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:00 pm

Yoda wrote:I don't think anyone would be surprised if Pedroia doesn't come close to hitting 17 HR.


Because he is 5'5"? ;-7

His power output was surprising, but i don't see him falling off the face of the planet.
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby Matthias » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:03 pm

As has already been remarked upon by others, this as with some of the other signings the Sox have made this off-season, have fit with what seems to be their general philosophy of reliever arms being more a matter of quantity than quality. If you put enough guys in the hopper, some will emerge as winners and the losers become the cost of doing business. For starters, they seem more quality focused, but also seem to like to enter opening day with about 2 or more starters than they need which gives them a cushion if someone gets injured or loses his touch.

It's a good signing in the sense that it's virtually no downside for them but rather sad that the money they're throwing around lately to guys who just have a chance to make it preclude other teams from taking the same gamble since if they invest potentially $5MM or more in a player, they need them to work out, not just hope that they do.
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby Yoda » Sat Jan 10, 2009 5:45 pm

thedude wrote:
Yoda wrote:I don't think anyone would be surprised if Pedroia doesn't come close to hitting 17 HR.


Because he is 5'5"? ;-7

His power output was surprising, but i don't see him falling off the face of the planet.


No based on his collegiate and pro career, he has never hit this many HRs in a single season.

AVG tends to vary widely from year to year and I need to see him put up 15+ HRs again for me to believe that he can do it consistently. So yeah, it totally makes sense why so many people think that he will regress.
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby mweir145 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:54 pm

Another one of the reasons I hate Boston...they always make good cost-effective signings.

Hopefully they'll make a mistake soon (might they re-sign Varitek because of his "leadership" qualities?).
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby BronXBombers51 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 6:56 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
kemper5 wrote:You know what is great, you can sign all these great fill ins like Smoltz, Saito, Penny & Baldelli for a fraction of what the Yanks are dishing out on a yearly basis.


Yeah but the Yankees are signing some of the top talent in the game and the Red Sox are taking fliers on guys that are old or injury risks. There's a reason Boston is able to sign these guys for little money.

That said, all these moves are good and give Boston a lot of depth. As everyone said, the AL East can really go in several directions. It's going to come down to who stays healthier throughout the course of the year.


There's considerable reason to believe that CC and Burnett (especially) are both injury risks.


Sure, but are we really drawing comparisons between Sabathia/Burnett and Smoltz/Saito?
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby RocketsDWM » Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:04 pm

Clearly, the Yanks are a favorite with Tampa in 2nd right now. But how can you hate this signing? 2 mil for a proven closer with great numbers who, if he can overcome this elbow injury (which Sox doctors and other doctors say he could with a reduced number of innings), could provide terrific depth in a pen that is shaping out to be one of the better ones in the AL (if healthy of course). Still hoping they sign Sheets. What a steal he would be. ;-D And how about Clay for Teagarden?
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby thedude » Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:10 pm

Yoda wrote:
thedude wrote:
Yoda wrote:I don't think anyone would be surprised if Pedroia doesn't come close to hitting 17 HR.


Because he is 5'5"? ;-7

His power output was surprising, but i don't see him falling off the face of the planet.


No based on his collegiate and pro career, he has never hit this many HRs in a single season.

AVG tends to vary widely from year to year and I need to see him put up 15+ HRs again for me to believe that he can do it consistently. So yeah, it totally makes sense why so many people think that he will regress.



Saying average varies widely is not especially accurate. It does vary, but there are players who consistently hit for a high average and there are players who don't. Dustin Pedroia has consistently hit over .300. The only times he has ever hit below .300 was his first half season in Triple A and his September call up. He does not need to hit 15 homers again to be a great player. He has demonstrated through his career the ability to earn a walk, the ability to hit for gap power, the ability to make contact, and the ability to hit for average. His home run numbers might regress, but his value should stay approximately the same. In fact last year was the first time in his life that he struck out more than he walked (50 walks to 52 ks), if his walk rate returns to previous levels might lose some of his power but be more valuable due to a higher OBP.

Yes a regression is possible, but i would not call it "likely."
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby MashinSpuds » Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:17 pm

Anymore Japanese players added to the roster and the locals are going to demand that a small Japantown form near Kenmore Square to properly represent the team. I also might start thinking about making t-shirts that look like maki rolls with these guys' names on the back.

Good signing, too. ;-D
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby Yoda » Sat Jan 10, 2009 8:20 pm

thedude wrote:Saying average varies widely is not especially accurate. It does vary, but there are players who consistently hit for a high average and there are players who don't. Dustin Pedroia has consistently hit over .300. The only times he has ever hit below .300 was his first half season in Triple A and his September call up. He does not need to hit 15 homers again to be a great player. He has demonstrated through his career the ability to earn a walk, the ability to hit for gap power, the ability to make contact, and the ability to hit for average. His home run numbers might regress, but his value should stay approximately the same. In fact last year was the first time in his life that he struck out more than he walked (50 walks to 52 ks), if his walk rate returns to previous levels might lose some of his power but be more valuable due to a higher OBP.

Yes a regression is possible, but i would not call it "likely."


There is a big difference between .300 and .326. I do expect him to hit .300+ but not .326. Anything below .326 would be a regression no?
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Re: Saito now with the Sox

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:22 pm

BronXBombers51 wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
BronXBombers51 wrote:
Yeah but the Yankees are signing some of the top talent in the game and the Red Sox are taking fliers on guys that are old or injury risks. There's a reason Boston is able to sign these guys for little money.

That said, all these moves are good and give Boston a lot of depth. As everyone said, the AL East can really go in several directions. It's going to come down to who stays healthier throughout the course of the year.


There's considerable reason to believe that CC and Burnett (especially) are both injury risks.


Sure, but are we really drawing comparisons between Sabathia/Burnett and Smoltz/Saito?


Not talent-wise, but the Sox are paying a minimal fraction of the cost for two players who if they end up being healthy, could potentially contribute at a level THIS YEAR near AJ/CC.
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