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My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby jake_harv88 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:59 am

Yoda wrote:I think Chipper is going before Atkins in almost every draft. That being said, the biggest problem with Chipper is you have to micromanage your lineup more. Also, you need to have a viable backup when he is not playing. In most leagues with a 4 man bench, it is tough to carry a back up for him all season.


You dont really have carry a backup if you have DL spots and Chipper actually goes on the DL. However, if Chipper remains a game-time decision this is obviously a more tricky situation to deal with. Typically I like to own a player that qualifies at a bunch of positions (3B,2B,SS,etc) so that I can use one bench spot to deal with a multitude of roster positions. Another strategy for dealing with a player like chipper is to trade him if he gets hot and stays healthy for awhile. If you can get another top level 3B you would almost certainly increase the production you would get from say a chipper/WW pair...

But I think its pretty clear from this thread that this isn't so black and white as the original poster makes it appear. Chipper SHOULD be discounted for his injury proneness, and shouldn't be drafted as if he plays the whole season...
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby neoforce » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:02 am

Another factor to consider is the depth of the league. In a deep league the Value of the replacement player goes way down. So, lets ignore the issue already brought up that you can't always know in advance when this type of player sits out. If assuming you can predict with complete accuracy when the player is out of the lineup, in a standard mixed league you can probably follow this strategy. But in a deep league, where the guy you have to pick up hits .200, you are really impacted by the injury time.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby Pogotheostrich » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:16 am

tavo2311 wrote:Another thing that factors in IMO is wether you are talking Roto or h2h. In h2h I think it is much more important to get a lesser overall player that plays 160 games, than a combination of better production from a stud in 130 games and an unknown in 30 games. Those 30 games just may mean your playoffs.

I agree roto or H2H makes a big difference but for difference reasons. I'm OK finding a replacement in a roto league cause all the game count equally but nothing is more annoying than having half your team injured going into H2H playoffs.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby stevethumb » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:47 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:it all depends on your bench spots too

i play in a league with only 2 bench spots...i tend to avoid injury prone guys like that in that league

i agree and in very deep leagues (13 tm NL only) i HAVE to discount cjones auction price by the % of games i think he will miss..IF his auction price slips to my levels i can buy him, if it doesn't ..PASS..you just can't afford to pay full price for injury prone stars in those types of leagues
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby bigwords » Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:10 pm

Actually, the biggest caveat about Chipper is NOT the injury issue. His 3-year average is 454 at bats, and to paraphrase the first poster, having Wigginton fill in for an extra 100 at bats isn't the worst thing in the world.

I think there's a much more pressing issue when it comes to Chipper. He's coming off a season where he was phenomenally lucky, with a BABIP of .388. His xBABIP, according to a recent article in Hardball Times, is .325, which translated into the second luckiest batter in the Bigs last year when it came to average (after Joey Gathright, just before Matt Kemp). All things going as they should, Chipper's average should regress between 30 to 60 points next season.

But it's not only average. He had a very good season last year, and it almost overshadows his decline in power. Unfortunately, the peripheral stats don't seem to indicate this was luck factor. Hopefully, he'll at least maintain his HR rate from last year, but at 37 years old, you also have to beware that this could be the beginning of a trend line.

Fortunately, those injury issues seem to drag down his ADP into reasonable territory, but don't automatically take last year's statistics, add 100 at bats from a replacement player, and assume you've uncovered a hidden advantage. Adjustments are in order.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby OneLoveBoomer » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:26 pm

I draft Atkins before Chipper, but then again I'm a believer.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby Yoda » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:33 pm

bigwords wrote:Actually, the biggest caveat about Chipper is NOT the injury issue. His 3-year average is 454 at bats, and to paraphrase the first poster, having Wigginton fill in for an extra 100 at bats isn't the worst thing in the world.

I think there's a much more pressing issue when it comes to Chipper. He's coming off a season where he was phenomenally lucky, with a BABIP of .388. His xBABIP, according to a recent article in Hardball Times, is .325, which translated into the second luckiest batter in the Bigs last year when it came to average (after Joey Gathright, just before Matt Kemp). All things going as they should, Chipper's average should regress between 30 to 60 points next season.

But it's not only average. He had a very good season last year, and it almost overshadows his decline in power. Unfortunately, the peripheral stats don't seem to indicate this was luck factor. Hopefully, he'll at least maintain his HR rate from last year, but at 37 years old, you also have to beware that this could be the beginning of a trend line.

Fortunately, those injury issues seem to drag down his ADP into reasonable territory, but don't automatically take last year's statistics, add 100 at bats from a replacement player, and assume you've uncovered a hidden advantage. Adjustments are in order.


He is certainly a good candidate for a collapse but still, bench spots are valuable especially in H2H. You don't want to be carrying an extra body all season just to cover his position.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby bigwords » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:41 pm

Kind of depends on the league, no? Depth of league, number of bench spots, etc.

Wigginton would qualify in the OF too. He'd actually be a pretty good platoon partner with Chipper. I don't think you can assume any player will hit 162 games. Also, what's the probability that all three of your drafted outfielders remain healthy? Wigginton might have some value filling in at different spots.
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Re: My advice concerning injury prone players ala Chipper Jones

Postby Yoda » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:52 pm

bigwords wrote:Kind of depends on the league, no? Depth of league, number of bench spots, etc.

Wigginton would qualify in the OF too. He'd actually be a pretty good platoon partner with Chipper. I don't think you can assume any player will hit 162 games. Also, what's the probability that all three of your drafted outfielders remain healthy? Wigginton might have some value filling in at different spots.


Yes it does depend on the league. Personally, I tend to stay away from injury prone players unless I can get them later. I have enough headaches with freak injuries and busts to deal with all season.
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