I have seen all kind of projections and rankings around here that have players like Milton Bradley and Chipper Jones ranked below where they should be and just shake my head... I write this because most people do not take into account that just because your starter gets hurt, that doesn't mean you cannot find someone off of the WW that can't fill in while your player is out. For instance, let us take a look at two players from last year who got drafted in the wrong order, IMO. Chipper Jones and Garret Atkins.
Okay, as we most know, Atkins has been in a tail spin since his dominant 2006 second half, in which he hit .354 and 18 home runs in 73 2nd half games. Very impressive. Atkins is a very durable player, and we fantasy owners enjoy the luxery that comes with our corner infielder playing 150+ games.
I know that Atkins will take a hit this year because his numbers have fallen off the last two seasons, but I am going throw out last season for both players and look at 2007 numbers.
Atkins - 605 AB's, 182 Hits, 25 Hr, 111 Rbi, 83 R, and a .301 avg. --- 155 out of 162 games Chipper - 513 AB's, 173 Hits, 28 Hr, 102 Rbi, 108 R, and a .337 avg. -- 134 out of 162 games
Looking at the #'s it is very clear that Chipper was the more effective fantasy players when you add 28 games of a player like Wiggington or a 3b on the WW. Even if that batter that you were to choose only hits .250 with 10 runs, 4 hr, and 11 rbi or so over those 100 or so AB's, your 3rd base position is still going to net you around .324, 118 runs, 32 hr and 113 rbi.
Obviously these injury concerns are due to age and other factors, but I am not so sure why people are so quick to write off position players who are very effective like A Soriano, M Bradley and C Jones.
id like to see you do this with a guy like rich harden compared to say javier vazquez. chipper and atkins are both drafted around the same time (within a few rounds), but a guy like harden usually gets pushed back AT LEAST 5 rounds lower than where he would go if everyone knew he'd start and finish the season without injury.
Chipper is a minor injury waiting to happen, that is a bit different than say Harden. It is like comparing Sheets to Harden. With Harden you are worried that is out for the season by May. With Sheets you just assume he'll miss 10-15 starts and not get you a full season.
Chipper is a bit of an exception. You know he will get injured and miss many games. But you know that when he plays he produces. Most players seem to take time to get hot again after injuries, but Larry is much more likely to hit right out of the box. Of course with each year his odds of slippage increase greatly.
Snakes Gould wrote:id like to see you do this with a guy like rich harden compared to say javier vazquez. chipper and atkins are both drafted around the same time (within a few rounds), but a guy like harden usually gets pushed back AT LEAST 5 rounds lower than where he would go if everyone knew he'd start and finish the season without injury.
Should have added that this has nothing to do with sp's.... When pitchers get hurt it tends to effect their performance directly, not to mention how bad most of the WW starters are.
I agree that people should take a more careful look at the injury issue, but don't think just making a comparison between one player and another is the right approach. Instead you have to consider each players' playing time. It's basically the same thing you do for relievers and starters in pitching, though on a lesser scale.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Part of the problem owning chipper or Bradley is that half of the games (at least it seems this way) they miss are gametime decisions. Which means that you are using your replacement player more to ensure that you have someone playing or you are using Chipper and he doesn't play.
The other problem with the 134 game example you used with Chipper is that was the most games played in the last 4 years. For Bradley he has 2 seasons with over 101 GP in his career and his 2008 season was an outlier in terms of production. And there is also a chance that either could go down for the season with only 50 games played.
Another thing that factors in IMO is wether you are talking Roto or h2h. In h2h I think it is much more important to get a lesser overall player that plays 160 games, than a combination of better production from a stud in 130 games and an unknown in 30 games. Those 30 games just may mean your playoffs.
I think Chipper is going before Atkins in almost every draft. That being said, the biggest problem with Chipper is you have to micromanage your lineup more. Also, you need to have a viable backup when he is not playing. In most leagues with a 4 man bench, it is tough to carry a back up for him all season.
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by Kingctb27 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:56 am 
