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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby stumpak » Thu Jan 08, 2009 10:25 am

[quote="RugbyD"][quote="AquaMan2342"][quote="stumpak"]

The real question is whether Dunn or Abreu is better than a composite of 60% Bradley/40% Crummy 4th OF, and Dunn or Abreu is probably better. Bradley has played in more than 101 games exactly once, and his career high is 141. He played only 160 innings in the OF last year, and still managed only 126 games. He is a tailor made DH. Abreu has NEVER played in less than 150 games and Dunn has only missed 150 once.

.[/quote]

Check the defensive metrics thread. This exact topic has been discussed so much that my head almost exploded.[/quote]
This is what I had in mind as well. Dunn cannot be put in RF and Abreu isn't good either and doesn't provide the kind of bat the Cubs need. We have enough guys who have 20 HR potential. We have plenty of guys who beat up on the 3/4/5 pitchers of the NL enough to win the division. We don't have guys that can hit 1/2 SPs consistently. We can't progess in the playoffs without that and Bradley can do it. Dunn may be able to, but the defensive hit is bad. If this was LF we were talking about I might take Dunn.[/quote]

Somebody can work out the win shares, but I would be suprised if 150 games of Dunn and a .900 OPS does not provide a lot more than 100 games of Bradley and his .800 OPS, even taking defense into account. I would say the same for Abreu. I guess you are assuming that by some miracle Bradley will stay healthy as a full-time OF, but there is overwhelming evidence that this is quite unlikely to happen.
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby RugbyD » Thu Jan 08, 2009 11:09 am

stumpak wrote:
RugbyD wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
Check the defensive metrics thread. This exact topic has been discussed so much that my head almost exploded.

This is what I had in mind as well. Dunn cannot be put in RF and Abreu isn't good either and doesn't provide the kind of bat the Cubs need. We have enough guys who have 20 HR potential. We have plenty of guys who beat up on the 3/4/5 pitchers of the NL enough to win the division. We don't have guys that can hit 1/2 SPs consistently. We can't progess in the playoffs without that and Bradley can do it. Dunn may be able to, but the defensive hit is bad. If this was LF we were talking about I might take Dunn.


Somebody can work out the win shares, but I would be suprised if 150 games of Dunn and a .900 OPS does not provide a lot more than 100 games of Bradley and his .800 OPS, even taking defense into account. I would say the same for Abreu. I guess you are assuming that by some miracle Bradley will stay healthy as a full-time OF, but there is overwhelming evidence that this is quite unlikely to happen.


Maybe the main difference we have is that I'm not counting on needing Bradley for a full season to be competitive. I'm counting on 100-120 games + playoffs of offense and defense. Bradley has Abreu beat in offense, defense, and the ability to provide both for 3 years. He has Dunn beat by a wide margin in defense and doesn't come up too short on offense. So IMO the net effect of Bradley's advantages and his replacements' shortfalls is a better proposition over 3 eyars than have Dunn or Abreu play 3 full season. It would be nice to know more of what to expect from his Bradley's subs (Johnson, Fukudome, Hoffpauir?), but i think it will be enough, especially since they are very platoonable.
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby knapplc » Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:19 pm

RugbyD wrote:Maybe the main difference we have is that I'm not counting on needing Bradley for a full season to be competitive. I'm counting on 100-120 games + playoffs of offense and defense. Bradley has Abreu beat in offense, defense, and the ability to provide both for 3 years. He has Dunn beat by a wide margin in defense and doesn't come up too short on offense. So IMO the net effect of Bradley's advantages and his replacements' shortfalls is a better proposition over 3 eyars than have Dunn or Abreu play 3 full season. It would be nice to know more of what to expect from his Bradley's subs (Johnson, Fukudome, Hoffpauir?), but i think it will be enough, especially since they are very platoonable.

+1

I think Bradley is the best fit of Bradley/Abreu/Dunn, and I think 100 games of Bradley will be plenty to win the division, especially with the removal of CC and possible removal of Sheets from Milwaukee. The Division is the Cubs' to lose this year, so the Bradley signing is specifically designed to cure the frigid playoff bats the Cubs have suffered the last two years. If Bradley and Harden enter October healthy, the Cubs should fare far better this year than last.

Stop me if you've heard this ^^^ before. ;-7
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby KCollins1304 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:23 pm

You're still playing Russian roulette hoping that October isn't when Bradley misses time.
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby knapplc » Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:27 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:You're still playing Russian roulette hoping that October isn't when Bradley misses time.

True, but doesn't that describe the Cubs' M.O. over the past decade or so with injuries? This is par for the course for the Trib.

Ideally I'd love to have someone whose health isn't in question, but I root for the Cubs. Such things are not realities. :-D
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Jan 08, 2009 3:29 pm

If the Cubs are running away with the division in July, give Harden and Bradley a compulsory vacation. :-D
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:42 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:You're still playing Russian roulette hoping that October isn't when Bradley misses time.


You can't understate this point. It's not like the Cubs didn't make the playoffs with the NL's best record last year w/o him.
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby Old_Style » Thu Jan 08, 2009 5:46 pm

How cool is it going to be to see a #21 playing right field, that can throw the ball and play some defense?
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby KCollins1304 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:09 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:You're still playing Russian roulette hoping that October isn't when Bradley misses time.


You can't understate this point. It's not like the Cubs didn't make the playoffs with the NL's best record last year w/o him.


I don't even understand what you said... a double negative and a 'without', my head asplode.
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Re: Milton the Cub

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Jan 08, 2009 6:14 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:You're still playing Russian roulette hoping that October isn't when Bradley misses time.


You can't understate this point. It's not like the Cubs didn't make the playoffs with the NL's best record last year w/o him.


I don't even understand what you said... a double negative and a 'without', my head asplode.


It was a sarcastic comment pointing out that the Cubs were the #1 seed in the NL last year w/o Bradley. B-)
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