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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby Nat Uralice » Thu Feb 26, 2009 4:55 pm

So...Bedard anyone? !+)

He declared himself "fully healthy" after throwing 2 scoreless innings in consecutive days, so that's a good sign. I know he'll never touch his career year in Baltimore again, but if he's healthy (big if) I can see him posting similar numbers to last year, or slightly better, but over the course of the year instead of a few months.
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby denicola_dominates » Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:23 pm

bedard will have breakout year depending on st
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby nate128 » Fri Feb 27, 2009 12:11 am

1 healthy Bedard = 1 fantasy ace

Don't be Bedarded..... grab him if you can!
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby colt4523 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 4:18 pm

I would like to nab him late but he really hurt me last year. Especially, when you take in the consideration that I kept him over Lincecum :~(
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby BJSFAN123 » Mon Mar 02, 2009 6:12 pm

I think he's worth a pick for where his ADP is at.
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby AllDay » Thu Mar 05, 2009 9:30 am

I think he makes a great later round pick as a candidate to fill out your rotation. He went early 13th round in my draft - which was a little earlier than I expected.

I like a whole group of young arms and vet rebound candidates available after round 10. I like to have 2 SP by then and grab what I can over the next 4-5 rounds. The SP pool after 15 rounds starts to get a little thin.

I'd have to get Harden after round 14 (and I drafted him last year on every team). There is always risk with him - but I don't like the sound of things so far. I don't like taking guys with injury history early, but I'm pretty forgiving when it is high upside SP in the later rounds. It's not impossible for these guys to be healthy enough to show their talent once in a while.
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby gws226 » Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:12 pm

chickaboowah wrote:It's funny--after reading all these posts, you go into your draft thinking all these guys (Bedard, Harang, LIriano, Harden) are going to fall so far that it will be like grabbing aces in a barrell in the late rounds.

IT DOESN"T HAPPEN!!

I had all these guys in mind and they all went alot quicker than one might think, so be prepared to jump on them!!


I had the opposite experience today. I had said I'd take a chance on one of them this year.
Got 12 Roto (6x6) keep 6
Harden @ 147
Bedard @ 188
Harang @ 193


Not a strategy that I recommend for the weak at heart. If I hadn't been so confident in my 1-3, I would not of made this picks, but I really didn't mind taking those risks at those price points.

Liriano went in the first round (round 7) @ 84.
If you found my advice helpful, please help me
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:15 pm

I believe I've mentioned this before in other threads, but don't think I posted anything in the Bedard thread specifically.

Obviously, Bedard's health is the big issue. If Bedard is healthy, everyone knows he will be good. He had a 3.67 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP last year when he pitched, which is pretty good, but not what he had done in his career year.

My point, and what has gotten almost zero play in fantasy circles is that Seattle dramatically upgraded their outfield defense this offseason and Bedard should benefit hugely. They went from one of the worst LF in baseball in Ibanez to Endy Chavez. If you look at Fangraphs, you'll see that Ibanez cost his team 25 runs while Endy saved his team about 15. That's a 40 run swing.

Similarly, the Seattle RF disaster of Balentin/Reed/Bloomquist, cost the team about 15 runs last year. Replacing them with Franklin Guitierrez, who saved 25 runs in only 1,000 innings is another 40 run swing. Factor in that Endy and Guitierrez didn't play full seasons last year (and Ichiro adds more value in RF than CF, and even if we assume all things being equal from last year - Seattle should let up about 80-100 fewer runs than last year just because of those two defensive upgrades.

That's about a 15% drop in runs (and logically, hits) and would bring their team ERA down from from 4.73 to about 4.15. Since Bedard is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, he'll benefit much more than Felix (an extreme groundball pitcher - Betancourt is poor defensively / Branyan stinks while Beltre and Lopez are gold glovers). But even if you just reduce his ERA by 15% and WHIP by 10% (the defense can't reduce walks),

For Bedard, you get an amazing season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 whip. So if you assume he's healthy, given that massive, massive improvement (they could seriously win 5 gold gloves) in defense, Bedard should be an absolute monster this year. All he has to do is be able to throw every 5 days.

I realize I took some liberties with the numbers and there are more things at play, but the point is adding two elite outfielders (Seattle probably has 3 of the top 5 fielding OF in baseball right now) behind an extreme flyball pitcher like Bedard is going to mean magic.

Get him in every single league you can.
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby silverZ » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:30 pm

Got him as my #5 starter in one league. Praying for him to stay healthy.
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Re: Erik Bedard

Postby RenPastana » Thu Apr 02, 2009 2:43 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:I believe I've mentioned this before in other threads, but don't think I posted anything in the Bedard thread specifically.

Obviously, Bedard's health is the big issue. If Bedard is healthy, everyone knows he will be good. He had a 3.67 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP last year when he pitched, which is pretty good, but not what he had done in his career year.

My point, and what has gotten almost zero play in fantasy circles is that Seattle dramatically upgraded their outfield defense this offseason and Bedard should benefit hugely. They went from one of the worst LF in baseball in Ibanez to Endy Chavez. If you look at Fangraphs, you'll see that Ibanez cost his team 25 runs while Endy saved his team about 15. That's a 40 run swing.

Similarly, the Seattle RF disaster of Balentin/Reed/Bloomquist, cost the team about 15 runs last year. Replacing them with Franklin Guitierrez, who saved 25 runs in only 1,000 innings is another 40 run swing. Factor in that Endy and Guitierrez didn't play full seasons last year (and Ichiro adds more value in RF than CF, and even if we assume all things being equal from last year - Seattle should let up about 80-100 fewer runs than last year just because of those two defensive upgrades.

That's about a 15% drop in runs (and logically, hits) and would bring their team ERA down from from 4.73 to about 4.15. Since Bedard is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, he'll benefit much more than Felix (an extreme groundball pitcher - Betancourt is poor defensively / Branyan stinks while Beltre and Lopez are gold glovers). But even if you just reduce his ERA by 15% and WHIP by 10% (the defense can't reduce walks),

For Bedard, you get an amazing season with a 3.15 ERA and 1.10 whip. So if you assume he's healthy, given that massive, massive improvement (they could seriously win 5 gold gloves) in defense, Bedard should be an absolute monster this year. All he has to do is be able to throw every 5 days.

I realize I took some liberties with the numbers and there are more things at play, but the point is adding two elite outfielders (Seattle probably has 3 of the top 5 fielding OF in baseball right now) behind an extreme flyball pitcher like Bedard is going to mean magic.

Get him in every single league you can.



Amazing analysis! Question: where did you get these numbers for runs cost/saved for outfielders?

Thanks!
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