If Harden falls far enough and it makes sense for your team, i.e. he's not your #1 or #2 pitcher, than he's worth picking up. For the 120-150 innings he will pitch, he should be pretty good...
It's funny--after reading all these posts, you go into your draft thinking all these guys (Bedard, Harang, LIriano, Harden) are going to fall so far that it will be like grabbing aces in a barrell in the late rounds.
IT DOESN"T HAPPEN!!
I had all these guys in mind and they all went alot quicker than one might think, so be prepared to jump on them!!
chickaboowah wrote:It's funny--after reading all these posts, you go into your draft thinking all these guys (Bedard, Harang, LIriano, Harden) are going to fall so far that it will be like grabbing aces in a barrell in the late rounds.
IT DOESN"T HAPPEN!!
I had all these guys in mind and they all went alot quicker than one might think, so be prepared to jump on them!!
There's a lot of talk about them falling here on the cafe as people have considered the risk and the hang-ups with each. However, when it comes down to draft day they each still carry name recognition and the average fantasy manager is probably going to take them earlier than they should. If you waited and ended up with better value as a result, kudos to you.
chickaboowah wrote:It's funny--after reading all these posts, you go into your draft thinking all these guys (Bedard, Harang, LIriano, Harden) are going to fall so far that it will be like grabbing aces in a barrell in the late rounds.
IT DOESN"T HAPPEN!!
I had all these guys in mind and they all went alot quicker than one might think, so be prepared to jump on them!!
Liriano and Harden tend to go a little early. Harang and Bedard have been falling pretty far in most of my mocks and end up being #4 SP which is well worth the risk.
Here's the pitch on the way, a swing and a belt! Left field! Way back! BLUE JAYS WIN!
Yeah, I stand corrected. Harden is worth taking if he falls far enough, same with Harang. Zambrano and Daisuke are definite NO-NO's for me because their skills are just plain terrible. At least when Harden is healthy he's nasty. And whoever said he's worth taking for the 120-150 innings he'll pitch... I think penciling him in for that many innings is a reach. Last year was the first time in years he's been healthy enough to make it that far and he's already hurt.
ILLZ wrote:Yeah, I stand corrected. Harden is worth taking if he falls far enough, same with Harang. Zambrano and Daisuke are definite NO-NO's for me because their skills are just plain terrible. At least when Harden is healthy he's nasty. And whoever said he's worth taking for the 120-150 innings he'll pitch... I think penciling him in for that many innings is a reach. Last year was the first time in years he's been healthy enough to make it that far and he's already hurt.
How are Dice-K's skills terrible. He led the league last year in opponent's batting average. Sure he nibbles a lot and gets burned with walks but last year he had an ERA of 2.90 and had 18 wins. He'll get his wins with that offense behind him. This will be his 3rd year in the league so it's not like he's incapable of making improvements.
I'll take a flier on most of these guys if they fall far enough. Harden or Bedard may miss 10 or so starts, but when they pitch they give you top 10 numbers. That's what DL spots are for.
ILLZ wrote:Yeah, I stand corrected. Harden is worth taking if he falls far enough, same with Harang. Zambrano and Daisuke are definite NO-NO's for me because their skills are just plain terrible. At least when Harden is healthy he's nasty. And whoever said he's worth taking for the 120-150 innings he'll pitch... I think penciling him in for that many innings is a reach. Last year was the first time in years he's been healthy enough to make it that far and he's already hurt.
How are Dice-K's skills terrible. He led the league last year in opponent's batting average. Sure he nibbles a lot and gets burned with walks but last year he had an ERA of 2.90 and had 18 wins. He'll get his wins with that offense behind him. This will be his 3rd year in the league so it's not like he's incapable of making improvements.
I'll take a flier on most of these guys if they fall far enough. Harden or Bedard may miss 10 or so starts, but when they pitch they give you top 10 numbers. That's what DL spots are for.
Like mentioned before, I will gladly take Harden + late round top set-man and combine them for an ace, if Harden falls to the double-digit rounds.
ScrappyDoo wrote: How are Dice-K's skills terrible. He led the league last year in opponent's batting average. Sure he nibbles a lot and gets burned with walks but last year he had an ERA of 2.90 and had 18 wins. He'll get his wins with that offense behind him. This will be his 3rd year in the league so it's not like he's incapable of making improvements.
He's definitely capable of making improvements, that is true. But you cannot argue that his skills aren't bad. He put up a 1.6 K/BB ratio last year. That's just bad. You cannot have sustained success with that rate. His BAA is not a skill, that's a stat. BAA takes into account K's. BABIP (hit%) is what you need to pay attention to. His hit% last year was 27%, which is what held his ERA down (league average for pitchers is 30%). Strand Rate is another area where he got lucky. League average is 75% and he came in at 80%. All these things led his expected ERA to be 4.50, but he lucked into the 2.90 mark he ended up at. Another problem associated with all the walks and K's is that it gets his pitch count up, which leads to less IP (inevitably less K's and less IP counting towards your team ERA), and it gets him out of the game earlier, affecting win potential. Overall, I'm not going anywhere near him. He had a nice debut in '07, but he regressed badly last year and he'll need to improve or he'll become irrelevant very quickly.
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by ILLZ » Sat Feb 21, 2009 8:30 pm 
