AquaMan2342 wrote:Your points are valid but what you said is all that I was trying to say: their offense will be better. Swisher is definitely a hole defensively, but he too had what seemed to be a pretty unlucky year hitting the ball. Nady is underrated IMO still also.
The thing about TB is that they had a pretty good year offensively with arguably their two best offensive players (Crawford, Upton) having down years overall. That's kinda scary.
Right, I don't disagree that I think there offense will be better, though I think that improvement is highly contingent on at least 2 of the 4 older guys staying healthy, especially Jeter and Posada. I was arguing mostly against the idea that it was likely to be the best in the AL.
I guess Nady depends on who is doing the rating. No way is he as good as he played with the Pirates last year. What he gave the Yanks is about what you can expect, performance a little above average. That will probably be less than what the Yanks got from Damon and Abreu in the corners last year.
And I agree with TB. A lot of young guys and none of whome really over-performed last year. They could easily take a big leap forward.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
Pat will definitely help the Rays offense. Hated to see him leave Philly. I know he's inconsistent, but they'll get great stretches where he'll carry the team for a bit, followed by times when he looks lost. He'll get on base most times throughout the year, too, even when he's not hitting. This is a good sign; enough to stay ahead of the Yanks. Boy, that's going to be hard. But, you know, I'm still not sure I wouldn't rather have TB pitching than NY. Sabathia's great, but whoa, I think Burnett is Pavano is waiting.
And that's why the Yanks beat the Ray's like a drum and dominated in the playoffs.
Oh. Wait.
Tampa had the 3rd best ERA in baseball last year. New York was 15th. That was the major reason why Tampa won 97 games and the division last year. That's why the Yankees spent almost $250 million on two top starters this winter. Whether it closes the gap or not remains to be seen.
I hate to bring it up again, but I think defense was an overlooked major reason TB did well, and the ERA isn't just from good pitching. Sure, the Yanks added pitching but did nothing to shore up the defense except replacing Giambi with Teixeira.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Just curious GTWMA, could you do the same type of analysis for Boston? Ortiz and Lowell are both aging, they don't have a catcher and it seems questionable that Pedroia can repeat last year's numbers. I'm not saying they aren't strong, I'm just wondering what your take on their lineup is.
I can try.
C; improvement. Varitek was awful. If they re-sign him, he'll either rebound, platoon, or be replaced. Both the current replacements (Bard and Kottaras) project to be better than 'tek was last year. 1B: decline. Monster year for Youk last year and hard to see him matching or topping that. 2B: no change. He's young enough to continue improving, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him plateau a bit. I wouldn't count on a significant decline. ss: Improvement? Not sure what the plans are here. If Lowrie can field the position, they should get an improvement in offense. If not, then I don't know what their plans are. 3B: Improve? Depends on either Lowell recovering or backup plan (Carter/Bailey/Anderson?) at 1B with Youk swapping corners? LF: No change. Bay should match what Manny gave. CF: Improve? Ellsbury should rebound and top what he and Crisp gave RF: Decline. Drew could be healthier, but in rate terms last year was his best since 2005. You might get more ABs from him, but lower rate stats DH: Improvement? If Ortiz is healthier.
Overall, I'd guess not mcuh change. I see two likely declines, 1 likely improvement, then 4 real ?. I think they are a little better off on that than the Yanks, just because the guys they are hoping will stay healthier are 1-3 years younger than the guys the Yanks are hoping to keep healthy. It's hard to say because the back up plans in Boston are even less certain than NY. Replacement level Yankees blog ran the numbers and came up with Boston at 882 runs, Yanks at 865. Sounds a little high to me for both, but both teams have the $ to fill gaps better than the replacements I'm looking on their roster now.
So, overa
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
kab21 wrote:I might be tempted to drop Iwamura to the bottom and have Crawford or Upton lead off. Get your best hitters more AB's over the course of a season. That is a pretty good lineup especially when you consider that each player is at least an average fielder (except their DH).
My baseball mojo has been sleeping, but I think it probably has something to do with patience, taking pitches and that sort of thing that Iwamura may do better than Upton and Crawford.
Really like this signing by the Rays. Add good power without asking him to run out on the field.
Your right on that as far as Crawford goes, Aki even though he doesnt walk a lot ... he does what you need from a lead off guy. Crawford is more suited for the 2nd spot. BJ on the other hand could lead off, but the org. has decided to move him down because even though he walks and shows patience w/ speed, he can be a good run producer w/ pop as people saw in the playoffs (not to mention the best pure hitter IMO).
I think CC would be a good lead off hitter, but he has said numerous times he hates hitting lead off and basically has refused to do it and when he does he kind of pouts about it. He does need to be more patient for it to work, but his speed on the base paths is killer. I do agree though that Upton is the best guy to have lead off, but they don't want him doing it.
Neato Torpedo wrote:I hate to bring it up again, but I think defense was an overlooked major reason TB did well, and the ERA isn't just from good pitching. Sure, the Yanks added pitching but did nothing to shore up the defense except replacing Giambi with Teixeira.
The defense definitely helped the Rays. I can tell you from watching every Rays game that the defense was a big reason the era's were that low. The pitchers knew they had back up behind them and when they got in a jam they could just pitch.
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by knapplc » Tue Jan 06, 2009 3:55 pm 
