Just curious GTWMA, could you do the same type of analysis for Boston? Ortiz and Lowell are both aging, they don't have a catcher and it seems questionable that Pedroia can repeat last year's numbers. I'm not saying they aren't strong, I'm just wondering what your take on their lineup is.
I can try.
C; improvement. Varitek was awful. If they re-sign him, he'll either rebound, platoon, or be replaced. Both the current replacements (Bard and Kottaras) project to be better than 'tek was last year.
1B: decline. Monster year for Youk last year and hard to see him matching or topping that.
2B: no change. He's young enough to continue improving, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him plateau a bit. I wouldn't count on a significant decline.
ss: Improvement? Not sure what the plans are here. If Lowrie can field the position, they should get an improvement in offense. If not, then I don't know what their plans are.
3B: Improve? Depends on either Lowell recovering or backup plan (Carter/Bailey/Anderson?) at 1B with Youk swapping corners?
LF: No change. Bay should match what Manny gave.
CF: Improve? Ellsbury should rebound and top what he and Crisp gave
RF: Decline. Drew could be healthier, but in rate terms last year was his best since 2005. You might get more ABs from him, but lower rate stats
DH: Improvement? If Ortiz is healthier.
Overall, I'd guess not mcuh change. I see two likely declines, 1 likely improvement, then 4 real ?. I think they are a little better off on that than the Yanks, just because the guys they are hoping will stay healthier are 1-3 years younger than the guys the Yanks are hoping to keep healthy. It's hard to say because the back up plans in Boston are even less certain than NY. Replacement level Yankees blog ran the numbers and came up with Boston at 882 runs, Yanks at 865. Sounds a little high to me for both, but both teams have the $ to fill gaps better than the replacements I'm looking on their roster now.
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