Pat the Ray - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Pat the Ray

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:02 am

Another Blown Save wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right. :-o

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees


Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby KCollins1304 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:25 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right. :-o

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees


Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.


They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.
Image
KCollins1304
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5089
Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 06, 2009 10:43 am

KCollins1304 wrote:
They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.


No, Matsui turns 36 this March. Not exaggeration, just misremembering something I looked up earlier this winter.

Expecting 35+ year old players to come back and stay "healthy" from an injury is a sucker's bet, but make it if you want. Last year those 4 were lost for 211 games collectively, for injury, rest, and recuperation. I'd put the over/under on games lost at 150, better than last year, but still a major hit, expecially if those come from Posada or Jeter where the Yankees' depth is the suck.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby KCollins1304 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 11:18 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.


No, Matsui turns 36 this March. Not exaggeration, just misremembering something I looked up earlier this winter.

Expecting 35+ year old players to come back and stay "healthy" from an injury is a sucker's bet, but make it if you want. Last year those 4 were lost for 211 games collectively, for injury, rest, and recuperation. I'd put the over/under on games lost at 150, better than last year, but still a major hit, expecially if those come from Posada or Jeter where the Yankees' depth is the suck.


Matsui turns 35 June 12. And I'll take the under on 150 games lost from DL/injury time. Damon and Jeter have been pretty healthy their entire careers, their injury risk is pretty low for their age. Hopefully playing DH 80% of the time will keep Matsui off the DL. Posada is still a very high injury risk and I don't think he'll catch more than 100 games this year.
Image
KCollins1304
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 5089
Joined: 29 Dec 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby DbacksRback » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:10 pm

stevethumb wrote:seems like a very good fit and the $ is very agreeable BUT i have always thought of burrell as very ordinary/mediocre..his OBP and career HRs look good but .250 BA and averaged 'only' 92 RBIs the last 3 years in that lineup in that ballpark..meh


With those rbi's it doesnt help having someone with over 135 rbi's the last 3 years batting in front of him
________________________________________

Image
DbacksRback
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Lucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 2878
(Past Year: 82)
Joined: 2 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:21 pm

My bad. I don't know what I was looking at when I came up with Matsui's age.

Still, just a few numbers to throw your way. If we compare these 4 players to players who have shown comparable performance (both in durability and quality of play) up to this point in their careers, and then look at those comparable players, here's a rough guide:

Damon:
average number of games played per season for comparable players: 120
average number of games played for most durable comparable player: 140

Jeter:
AVG for all comps: 110
AVG for most durable comp: 140

Posada:
AVG for all comps: 95 (I should note that this excludes players who were so injured or performed so poorly that they essentially dropped out of play at age 35/36/37 as appropriate)
AVG for most durable comp: 105

Matsui:
AVG for all comps: 120
AVG for most durable comp: 140

Assume all 4 of these guys are more durable than average. You still get estimates that Damon and Matsui miss 25-35 games, Jeter misses 30-40 games, and Posada misses 55-65 games. That's 140-180 games right there. And you can't have Jeter move to third, first or DH. If Matsui's DHing, then there's nowhere to play Posada if he's gimpy. And Damon's either trying to man CF, or pushing Matsui out of a corner spot if you are putting Jeter or Posada at DH.

I think it's very easy to over-estimate the Yankees this year. High potential for age related decline that will either weaken the offense or put a defensive team out there that is weak to begin with and further hampered by gimpiness/people out of position. While the OF is deep at the corners, Swisher's no CFer. You can put Gardner out there, but then you lose either a bat from Nady, Swisher, Damon or Matsui. And they simply have no credible back up plan yet for Jeter or Posada.

Yanks can certainly contend with that pitching. But, the offense still has holes, and the defense is a total mess. They could also crater with just a little bad luck on the injury side.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:22 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:
jlm53089 wrote:Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right. :-o

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees


Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.


Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.
AquaMan2342
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 7852
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Searchin for my mainline....I couldn't hit it sideways

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:51 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees


Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.




Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.


Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
GotowarMissAgnes
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Fantasy Expert
Posts: 5516
Joined: 12 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Happy Valley

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:55 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.




Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.


Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.


Your points are valid but what you said is all that I was trying to say: their offense will be better. Swisher is definitely a hole defensively, but he too had what seemed to be a pretty unlucky year hitting the ball. Nady is underrated IMO still also.

The thing about TB is that they had a pretty good year offensively with arguably their two best offensive players (Crawford, Upton) having down years overall. That's kinda scary.
AquaMan2342
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeWeb Supporter
Posts: 7852
Joined: 19 Sep 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Searchin for my mainline....I couldn't hit it sideways

Re: Pat the Ray

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Jan 06, 2009 1:56 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.




Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.


Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.


Just curious GTWMA, could you do the same type of analysis for Boston? Ortiz and Lowell are both aging, they don't have a catcher and it seems questionable that Pedroia can repeat last year's numbers. I'm not saying they aren't strong, I'm just wondering what your take on their lineup is.
25
BronXBombers51
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 11949
(Past Year: 54)
Joined: 8 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cardsfan, Essayvap and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Monday, Jul. 28
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

San Diego at Atlanta
(12:10 pm)
Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Philadelphia at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Washington at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Arizona at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Toronto at Boston
(7:10 pm)
Colorado at Chi Cubs
(8:05 pm)
NY Yankees at Texas
(8:05 pm)
Oakland at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact