Pat the Ray

[GotowarMissAgnes]

Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right.

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

[KCollins1304]

Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right.

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.

No, Matsui turns 36 this March. Not exaggeration, just misremembering something I looked up earlier this winter.

Expecting 35+ year old players to come back and stay "healthy" from an injury is a sucker's bet, but make it if you want. Last year those 4 were lost for 211 games collectively, for injury, rest, and recuperation. I'd put the over/under on games lost at 150, better than last year, but still a major hit, expecially if those come from Posada or Jeter where the Yankees' depth is the suck.

[KCollins1304]

They also should have back a healthy Matsui and Posada that they were missing last season. I'm pretty confident that they'll score more runs than 2008. Also, there is only one starter that is 36 or older, Posada. Damon just turned 35 and Jeter and Matsui will be 35 by season's end. Your point still stands that they have some players getting older, but no need to exaggerate.

No, Matsui turns 36 this March. Not exaggeration, just misremembering something I looked up earlier this winter.

Expecting 35+ year old players to come back and stay "healthy" from an injury is a sucker's bet, but make it if you want. Last year those 4 were lost for 211 games collectively, for injury, rest, and recuperation. I'd put the over/under on games lost at 150, better than last year, but still a major hit, expecially if those come from Posada or Jeter where the Yankees' depth is the suck.

Matsui turns 35 June 12. And I'll take the under on 150 games lost from DL/injury time. Damon and Jeter have been pretty healthy their entire careers, their injury risk is pretty low for their age. Hopefully playing DH 80% of the time will keep Matsui off the DL. Posada is still a very high injury risk and I don't think he'll catch more than 100 games this year.

[DbacksRback]

seems like a very good fit and the $ is very agreeable BUT i have always thought of burrell as very ordinary/mediocre..his OBP and career HRs look good but .250 BA and averaged 'only' 92 RBIs the last 3 years in that lineup in that ballpark..meh

With those rbi's it doesnt help having someone with over 135 rbi's the last 3 years batting in front of him

[GotowarMissAgnes]

My bad. I don't know what I was looking at when I came up with Matsui's age.

Still, just a few numbers to throw your way. If we compare these 4 players to players who have shown comparable performance (both in durability and quality of play) up to this point in their careers, and then look at those comparable players, here's a rough guide:

Damon:
average number of games played per season for comparable players: 120
average number of games played for most durable comparable player: 140

Jeter:
AVG for all comps: 110
AVG for most durable comp: 140

Posada:
AVG for all comps: 95 (I should note that this excludes players who were so injured or performed so poorly that they essentially dropped out of play at age 35/36/37 as appropriate)
AVG for most durable comp: 105

Matsui:
AVG for all comps: 120
AVG for most durable comp: 140

Assume all 4 of these guys are more durable than average. You still get estimates that Damon and Matsui miss 25-35 games, Jeter misses 30-40 games, and Posada misses 55-65 games. That's 140-180 games right there. And you can't have Jeter move to third, first or DH. If Matsui's DHing, then there's nowhere to play Posada if he's gimpy. And Damon's either trying to man CF, or pushing Matsui out of a corner spot if you are putting Jeter or Posada at DH.

I think it's very easy to over-estimate the Yankees this year. High potential for age related decline that will either weaken the offense or put a defensive team out there that is weak to begin with and further hampered by gimpiness/people out of position. While the OF is deep at the corners, Swisher's no CFer. You can put Gardner out there, but then you lose either a bat from Nady, Swisher, Damon or Matsui. And they simply have no credible back up plan yet for Jeter or Posada.

Yanks can certainly contend with that pitching. But, the offense still has holes, and the defense is a total mess. They could also crater with just a little bad luck on the injury side.

[AquaMan2342]

Buster Olney said with this addition and Joyces.
With the health of Upton and Crawford that this is the best lineup in the AL.

Lets just hope he is right.

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.

[GotowarMissAgnes]

He must have missed the news that Teix signed with the Yankees

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.

Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.

[AquaMan2342]

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.

Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.

Your points are valid but what you said is all that I was trying to say: their offense will be better. Swisher is definitely a hole defensively, but he too had what seemed to be a pretty unlucky year hitting the ball. Nady is underrated IMO still also.

The thing about TB is that they had a pretty good year offensively with arguably their two best offensive players (Crawford, Upton) having down years overall. That's kinda scary.

[BronXBombers51]

Who have also lost Abreu and Giambi, and have 4 starters age 36 and older with significant chances of decline, collapse, or injury. Only one of those four have a credible backup on the bench.

But, both the Yanks and the Rays were almost half a run per game behind. Park adjustments narrow that, but still Boston had an OPS+ of 107, while NYY and TBR were at 101 and 99 respectively.

I'm not sure that either of them is the best lineup in their division, much less the entire AL.

Adding Tex and realizing that Cano's periphs point to a really unlucky year I believe outweighs the losses of Abreu and Giambi.

Rather than jusy cherry pick, go through the whole team. At catcher, you'd expect improvement, assuming you can get more games out of Posada. At 1B, improvement. At 2b, improvement. At SS, improvement, assuming Jeter stays healthy and rebounds. At 3B, about the same, as ARod was right on his career averages. At CF, an improvement, but only at significant cost to the defense. If you improve the defense with Gardner, then no improvement. At LF, a decline, as 2007 was Damon's almost his best year ever. At RF a decline, as none of Abreu's replacements match is offense. At DH, a decline, as Matsui's projections fall short of what the Yanks got last year. I see 5 improvements and 3 declines, but 2 of the improvements are quite health dependent and 1 of them relies on creating a gaping hole in a key defensive position. A better offense, in all likelihood, but not one that tops the AL, and unlikely to be one that tops Boston.

Just curious GTWMA, could you do the same type of analysis for Boston? Ortiz and Lowell are both aging, they don't have a catcher and it seems questionable that Pedroia can repeat last year's numbers. I'm not saying they aren't strong, I'm just wondering what your take on their lineup is.