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Trading based off of ADP/MDP

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Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Whalewang » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:04 pm

Assume normal auction keeper league with both players in the last year of a contract. Each team can keep only one player. Off-season only. I don't do my own predictions. Is it always correct to trade an ADP of 60 for 50? If yes, then is there an exception to this rule?

edited to add "Off-season only."
Last edited by Whalewang on Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby ayebatter » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:24 pm

Ok, Maybe I'm not reading this right, but with only 1 keeper per team, why would an ADP of 50-60 be considered as a keeper, unless you're in a 60 team league?

In general a higher ADP player doesn't mean that said player would fit you team as well as a lower ADP player would.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Jan 05, 2009 2:31 pm

Not sure what your question is - as ayebatter pointed out, the 50th and 60th best players should not be keepers anyhow.

Regarding ADP and using it to trade, there is no "rule". ADP is just a guideline to give you an idea of other owners value players. It doesn't mean that you (or your trading partner) value the players in question the same way. Given that you are going to rely solely on ADP for your rankings/valuations (which you shouldn't), then yes - you should always try to receive a higher valued player (lower ADP) in exchange for a lower valued player (higher ADP).

More generically, in a one-for-one preseason deal, you should try to get back a player ranked higher in your own personal rankings than the player you are giving up. During the season, the rules might change because you may have needs to fill and can give up more value to address those needs.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:01 pm

ADP is for noobs. :^ !+) Isn't Frankie Rodriguez's ADP around 40 on some sites? Didn't CBS rank Thome outside the top 250? The way ADP works is five to seven so-called "experts" (such as those who draft Edwin Encarnacion in the 4th round) pool their personal rankings together. Then 50%-75% of new/casual/lazy FB players follow their rankings more or less to the letter in their drafts, making the ADP similar to the experts' rankings. And I cannot stress this enough: the hired "experts" are mad unreliable.

And even if you do go by ADP, there's always things such as positional strength, upside, downside, age, injury history, etc. Especially important in a keeper. All of these play a part in rankings, but not as much as they need to, even for single-season non-keeper projections. Give me Mauer (MDP ranking 53) over Ortiz (MDP ranking 45) in a keeper any day. Same with Soria (92) over K-Rod (63), Stephen Drew (91) over Jeter (77), Billingsley (88) over Cliff Lee (65), etc etc etc etc etc etc....and those are just MDP's pooled from several different sites, which goes farther to negate the "stupid expert syndrome" than a single site's ADP by collecting a much larger sample size.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Whalewang » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:03 pm

ayebatter wrote:Ok, Maybe I'm not reading this right, but with only 1 keeper per team, why would an ADP of 50-60 be considered as a keeper, unless you're in a 60 team league?

In general a higher ADP player doesn't mean that said player would fit you team as well as a lower ADP player would.


One keeper for simplicity sake.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Whalewang » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:15 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:ADP is for noobs. :^ !+) Isn't Frankie Rodriguez's ADP around 40 on some sites? Didn't CBS rank Thome outside the top 250? The way ADP works is five to seven so-called "experts" (such as those who draft Edwin Encarnacion in the 4th round) pool their personal rankings together. Then 50%-75% of new/casual/lazy FB players follow their rankings more or less to the letter in their drafts, making the ADP similar to the experts' rankings. And I cannot stress this enough: the hired "experts" are mad unreliable.

And even if you do go by ADP, there's always things such as positional strength, upside, downside, age, injury history, etc. Especially important in a keeper. All of these play a part in rankings, but not as much as they need to, even for single-season non-keeper projections. Give me Mauer (MDP ranking 53) over Ortiz (MDP ranking 45) in a keeper any day. Same with Soria (92) over K-Rod (63), Stephen Drew (91) over Jeter (77), Billingsley (88) over Cliff Lee (65), etc etc etc etc etc etc....and those are just MDP's pooled from several different sites, which goes farther to negate the "stupid expert syndrome" than a single site's ADP by collecting a much larger sample size.


I'm in 1-2 leagues a year so that makes me a casual owner. It does not make sense for me to plow massive amounts of time into the offseason when I'm in so few leagues therefore I have not, up to this point, made my own predictions. It's difficult/useless for me to rank player A vs player B without predictions imo.

I was curious if using ADP/MDPs in the offseason is worthwhile as a general guideline and you apparently think not per your examples.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby fast dogs » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:29 pm

I would look at the good mock recently completed here or at Rookies & Creams top 100, if both rankings have same player ranked ahead of the other 1 in question, I'd say you should know which 1 generally has the most value. While looking at ADP should give you a pretty good idea of value, some of the sites own settings affect the final result. Or you could just ask us which 1 we'd prefer, but it appears as you are trying not to openly name names
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:30 pm

fast dogs wrote:I would look at the good mock recently completed here or at Rookies & Creams top 100, if both rankings have same player ranked ahead of the other 1 in question, I'd say you should know which 1 generally has the most value. While looking at ADP should give you a pretty good idea of value, some of the sites own settings affect the final result. Or you could just ask us which 1 we'd prefer, but it appears as you are trying not to openly name names

Yeah, we're a good source for this in the DTKW subforum. Chances are, 4 of us will make a better judgment than 7 experts.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:41 pm

Whalewang wrote:I'm in 1-2 leagues a year so that makes me a casual owner. It does not make sense for me to plow massive amounts of time into the offseason when I'm in so few leagues therefore I have not, up to this point, made my own predictions. It's difficult/useless for me to rank player A vs player B without predictions imo.

I bet most of the posters here at the Cafe are only in 2-3 leagues each, so its not really the quantity of leagues that dictates "casual" from "hardcore" - its the leagues and owners themselves that determine it.

Whalewang wrote:I was curious if using ADP/MDPs in the offseason is worthwhile as a general guideline and you apparently think not per your examples.

As other's said, you're better off going by a couple of mock drafts and rankings of people you trust instead of ADP on a website. ADP will only tell you what the masses are thinking (which is useful for guessing where players will actually be drafted), not what good fantasy players are thinking.
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Re: Trading based off of ADP/MDP

Postby AquaMan2342 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:43 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
fast dogs wrote:I would look at the good mock recently completed here or at Rookies & Creams top 100, if both rankings have same player ranked ahead of the other 1 in question, I'd say you should know which 1 generally has the most value. While looking at ADP should give you a pretty good idea of value, some of the sites own settings affect the final result. Or you could just ask us which 1 we'd prefer, but it appears as you are trying not to openly name names

Yeah, we're a good source for this in the DTKW subforum. Chances are, 4 of us will make a better judgment than 7 experts.


What's funny is, the more I see how some of us answer questions, the more I realize this is completely true.
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