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Defensive Metrics thread continued

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Re: Defensive Metrics thread continued

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 14, 2009 10:31 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:This basically sums up what I've tried to express in this thread pretty well, and probably more succinctly than I have. :-B


Again, the problem with this is that it starts with the assumption hitting and fielding come from the same distribution of outcomes. They don't. Hitting is a draw from a low mean, high variance distribution. Fielding is a draw from a high mean, low variance distribution. A random draw from the first is likely to be characterized by lots of variability. A random draw from the second is not.


Again, they're quite comparable when measured in runs. :-D


Again, they're not. Runs are simply a linear transformation from the underlying rate data.
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Re: Defensive Metrics thread continued

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Jan 14, 2009 11:03 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
Again, the problem with this is that it starts with the assumption hitting and fielding come from the same distribution of outcomes. They don't. Hitting is a draw from a low mean, high variance distribution. Fielding is a draw from a high mean, low variance distribution. A random draw from the first is likely to be characterized by lots of variability. A random draw from the second is not.


Again, they're quite comparable when measured in runs. :-D


Again, they're not. Runs are simply a linear transformation from the underlying rate data.


Ok, a linear transformation from the underlying plays number, which is derived from an entire matrix of probabilities, some of which are high and some of which are low. :-D

I love this stuff. :-B :-b
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