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BABIP explanation

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BABIP explanation

Postby Bozo » Sun Jan 04, 2009 3:14 pm

I apologize if this has been asked recently but now that the new year is here I'm getting back into baseball mode. I think I grasp the basic idea of BABIP against a pitcher but I wonder if you guys (and girls) can sum it up in a nutshell for me. Who were some examples of pitchers who had low BABIPs that might struggle this year due to the correction? And which pitchers will be the opposite? Also, I think I read that K/BB and K/9 ratios also should be factored in, is that true? Thanks for your help in advance.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby stevethumb » Sun Jan 04, 2009 3:55 pm

dice k, dbush, jduchsherer, gfloyd, agalarraga, solsen are all SP who benefitted from a favorable h%..some have other periphery skills that may offset the expected regression to the mean but probably guys like galarraga and olsen do not
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jan 04, 2009 6:35 pm

You can't look at BABIP on its own.

Some pitchers have consistently lower BABIPs than usual. Groundball pitchers like Wang, Lowe, Hudson, Carmona, will have lower BABIPs than standard pitchers.

It's better to look at Line Drive % along with BABIP as well. If a pitcher had a low LD% (meaning that batters couldn't get good contact) and a high BABIP, then it's a sign that it was a fluke and the pitcher should improve.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby Bozo » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:34 pm

The line drive percentage theory seems to make sense. So what source of reference can I use to find out pitcher's line drive percentages? It's not really an everyday stat like WHIP and ERA so I imagine it's harder to find out.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:35 pm

Bozo wrote:The line drive percentage theory seems to make sense. So what source of reference can I use to find out pitcher's line drive percentages? It's not really an everyday stat like WHIP and ERA so I imagine it's harder to find out.


There's a thread somewhere in this leftovers forum that goes over BABIP in depth. I don't feel like looking for it though....maybe you do! :-D
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:40 pm

Fangraphs has a lot of the relevant sabermetric stats. And the general formula is LD% + .120 = BABIP. Any higher, the batters get lucky. Any lower, they're unlucky.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby kab21 » Sun Jan 04, 2009 9:50 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:Fangraphs has a lot of the relevant sabermetric stats. And the general formula is LD% + .120 = BABIP. Any higher, the batters get lucky. Any lower, they're unlucky.


Hardball times has expanded this stat recently in their xBAPIP article from about a month ago. Speed among other things are also factors.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby The Cow » Mon Jan 05, 2009 12:35 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:Fangraphs has a lot of the relevant sabermetric stats. And the general formula is LD% + .120 = BABIP. Any higher, the batters get lucky. Any lower, they're unlucky.


I agree Fangraphs is a very useful site for those that don't know about it.

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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby Big Pimpin » Mon Jan 05, 2009 7:38 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:You can't look at BABIP on its own.

Some pitchers have consistently lower BABIPs than usual. Groundball pitchers like Wang, Lowe, Hudson, Carmona, will have lower BABIPs than standard pitchers.

It's better to look at Line Drive % along with BABIP as well. If a pitcher had a low LD% (meaning that batters couldn't get good contact) and a high BABIP, then it's a sign that it was a fluke and the pitcher should improve.


I think it's actually the opposite. Groundball pitchers tend to have higher BABIP, but those hits do less damage because most are singles.

I do agree with the other comments though.
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Re: BABIP explanation

Postby Ender » Tue Jan 06, 2009 9:22 am

GB have a higher BABIP than FB. LD rates can drive BABIP but they aren't usually consistent year to year for pitchers so I don't really care for that stat that much. Fastballs give a higher BABIP than offspeed pitches. It seems to me that pitchers with a lot of movement on their pitches have a lower BABIP as well (Zambrano, Marmol are two examples).

Since there are so many variables you generally want to compare BABIP to a pitchers career rate to see what to expect. Also the overall range is pretty small for the stat. If they have over a .325 BABIP against or under a .285 BABIP against most likely they'll regress towards that .285-.325 range. Very few pitchers live outside of that range.
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