Keepers after year one of my expansion team (WHIR)

[plapre3]

I realize that my team isn't that great, but here is where I stand after one year of my expansion team. Like the rest of you, I'm trying to figure out the keeper situation. In this league, you must keep 5 and may keep up to 10 players with no time limits or costs associated with them. If each team were to keep 10 and I were only to keep 5, I'd have the 1st 5 picks in the draft. However, I estimate at least 3 teams to keep only the minimum of 5, so I'm thinking that I should keep more. It also looks like 3 teams will keep all 10. Top minors players are pretty valuable as 5 of them can be kept for "free" each year.

6x6 weekly HtH 14 team roto keeper (between 5 and 10 keepers (no time limits or costs), losing a draft pick for each after 5)
Offensive Categories: BA, OPS, RBI, HR, SB and Runs Scored.
Pitching Categories: W, S, ERA, K/IP, Quality Starts minus Losses, and WHIP
Offensive Starters: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 0F, 0F, 0F, UTIL
Pitching Starters: SP, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP
Bench: 10 spots
Minors: 5 "free" keepers. These players if are eligible to be kept without the loss of a draft pick and in addition to the max of 10.

How many and who should I keep? Below is how I see things, do you agree? I broke them into tiers to clarify my stance on player values:

1st Tier: Johan Santana, Alfonso Soriano, Scott Kazmir, Corey Hart, Joe Nathan
2nd Tier: Victor Martinez, Yovanni Gallardo, Zach Greinke
3rd Tier: Michael Young, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman
4th Tier: Kevin Slowey, Adam Jones, Adam Lind, Billy Butler, Aaron Harang, Kelly Shoppach, Shin-Soo Choo

I'm thinking of keeping the 1st and 2nd tiers and going to the draft for the rest. However, Young and one of the two 3B seem interesting, and cases can be made for some of the 4th Tier Guys. In fact, if you all think that some of them might be good enough, I may try to trade some of the higher guys for more top end talent. That's not easy to do, though

As for minor leaguers, I only get to keep 5. Petit is interesting, but really only if he wins a starting gig. My thoughts are keeping them in the following order:

1) Madison Bumgarner (SP-SF)
2) Matt LaPorta (1B-Cle)
3) Colby Rasmus (OF-Stl)
4) Jhoulys Chacin (SP-Col)
5) Josh Vitters (3B-ChiNL)
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6) Logan Morrison (1B-Fla)
7) Yusmeiro Petit (SP-Ari)
8) Michael Bowden (SP-Bos)

I'm not very high on LaPorta, so I'm trying to send him in a bigger deal and I'd love to keep Morrison. The only real question, I think comes down to Vitters vs. Morrison.

Thanks in advance for your help.

[San D]

I like your first and second tier keepers for a total of eight. I would keep Michael Young instead of Grienke though.

For the minors, I like your five, but I would keep Morrison instead of Vitters.

[GiantsFan14]

so which picks do you lose for keeping more than 5 guys?