SP- Peavy*, Harden, Sheets, Myers, E. Santana, Lackey RP- Rodriguez, Capps, Rauch, Soria, Wood
The players with the stars are the ones I'm looking at keeping currently. But, who knows!!! Btw, I finished 9th last year... Just goes to show you that you need to pay attention to your teams
Keep Peavy and Harden. Sure he's a gigantic risk, but Sheets and Myers I don't think are much less risks themselves, and while I love Ervin this year and am always big on Lackey, I think they will be easier to re-acquire at the draft. Or, if you can do something like flip Harden and one of the other non-Peavy SPs and get another big, reliable arm in return, go that route.
I think the bats you keep should be M-Cab, Beltran, Markakis, and Gonzo. Tough sending some of them back, but Brandon Phillips I have no problem sending packing. It's the Bay/Kemp/Votto that are difficult, and again, if you can pair any of these guys with one of the four above for a stronger keeper, go ahead.
Good luck, and for the love of God, pay attention!!
Does the fact that 4-2B are already being kept with only 8 teams keepers being sent in already? Here's who's been turned in so far...
C- 1B- Ryan Howard, David Ortiz, Mark Teixeira, Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau 2B- Alexei Ramirez, Chase Utley, Brian Roberts, Dustin Pedroia 3B- Alex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Aramis Ramirez SS- Hanley Ramirez, Mike Young, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes OF- Matt Holliday, BJ Upton, Grady Sizemore, Curtis Granderson, Carlos Lee, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun, Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordonez, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Chris Young SP- Tim Lincecum, Brandon Webb, David Price, Jon Lester, Ricky Nolasco, Scott Kazmir, CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, Dan Haren, James Shields. RP- John Papelbon, Joe Nathan
I think my keepers would be: Cabrera Beltran Markakis Phillips Peavy Lackey
Hard to throw back Gonzalez, but I hate PETCO and the now ultra thrifty Padres. Their lineup is atrocious. I think Markakis will provide equal numbers to Gonzalez even if he doesn't make a leap forward. However I think their is big time growth potential for Markakis. He's a more patient hitter already, and when that power comes, his OPS will be through the roof. He's already a .300 hitter, his runs/rbi's totals have been very good the last two years, and he even chips in stealing bases (10 last year, 18 the year before). It also looks like there will be plenty of 1B talent back in the draft including Gonzo and Votto who you're throwing back.
I also considered throwing back Beltran when looking at your keepers. I certainly like him a lot, but worry that he's gonna stop running at some point. He's 32, had a couple knee surgeries, and if I'm not mistaken has had some lingering hamstring issues off and on. I'd consider keeping Kemp over him. He's a speed demon and the power is trending upward, plus he's 8 years younger. Assuming you can keep these guys as long as you want, I'd say an argument could be made for Kemp.
My reasoning for keeping Phillips is simple. 2B is terrible, if you toss him back, you run the risk of getting "0" production from the position. Phillips is a reasonable power/speed option anyways, and the fact he plays 2B increases his value tremendously.
Cabrera and Peavy are no brainers.
Lackey was a tough one for me to choose. I'm think Myers is leaps and bounds behind Harden, Sheets, Santana and Lackey so I dismissed him immediately. Harden has the most tantalizing ceiling, and the lowest floor. I don't think he's worth that type of risk. Sheets is a bit less risky, and has a mildly lower ceiling I think, and still not worth the risk. I was really torn between Ervin Santana and Lackey. Santana really blossomed last year. He'd hinted in the past he could be a very very good fantasy starter (namely looking at what he did at home and ignoring his road woes). When it came down to it though, I loved the consistancy and track record of Mr. Lackey.
I personally believe John Lackey is one of the most overlooked and undervalued fantasy starters out there. Last year was essentially his floor (163 IP 12 wins 5 losses 130 K's 3.75 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP), quite the high floor I'd say. He threw over 200 innings the previous 3 years before. His ERA in the three years before last was never higher then 3.56 and his WHIP never higher then 1.33 (that in 2005 and trending downward prior to last year). He hadn't K'd fewer then 179 batters before last year either. He's rock steady, and still only 30. Sure, he's not the sexiest name of the bunch, but consistancy is king sometimes when it comes to starters, and he will be a great number 2 to Peavy, where as the other guys simply might be great number 2's.
B-Chad wrote:I think my keepers would be: Cabrera Beltran Markakis Phillips Peavy Lackey
Hard to throw back Gonzalez, but I hate PETCO and the now ultra thrifty Padres. Their lineup is atrocious. I think Markakis will provide equal numbers to Gonzalez even if he doesn't make a leap forward. However I think their is big time growth potential for Markakis. He's a more patient hitter already, and when that power comes, his OPS will be through the roof. He's already a .300 hitter, his runs/rbi's totals have been very good the last two years, and he even chips in stealing bases (10 last year, 18 the year before). It also looks like there will be plenty of 1B talent back in the draft including Gonzo and Votto who you're throwing back.
I also considered throwing back Beltran when looking at your keepers. I certainly like him a lot, but worry that he's gonna stop running at some point. He's 32, had a couple knee surgeries, and if I'm not mistaken has had some lingering hamstring issues off and on. I'd consider keeping Kemp over him. He's a speed demon and the power is trending upward, plus he's 8 years younger. Assuming you can keep these guys as long as you want, I'd say an argument could be made for Kemp.
My reasoning for keeping Phillips is simple. 2B is terrible, if you toss him back, you run the risk of getting "0" production from the position. Phillips is a reasonable power/speed option anyways, and the fact he plays 2B increases his value tremendously.
Cabrera and Peavy are no brainers.
Lackey was a tough one for me to choose. I'm think Myers is leaps and bounds behind Harden, Sheets, Santana and Lackey so I dismissed him immediately. Harden has the most tantalizing ceiling, and the lowest floor. I don't think he's worth that type of risk. Sheets is a bit less risky, and has a mildly lower ceiling I think, and still not worth the risk. I was really torn between Ervin Santana and Lackey. Santana really blossomed last year. He'd hinted in the past he could be a very very good fantasy starter (namely looking at what he did at home and ignoring his road woes). When it came down to it though, I loved the consistancy and track record of Mr. Lackey.
I personally believe John Lackey is one of the most overlooked and undervalued fantasy starters out there. Last year was essentially his floor (163 IP 12 wins 5 losses 130 K's 3.75 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP), quite the high floor I'd say. He threw over 200 innings the previous 3 years before. His ERA in the three years before last was never higher then 3.56 and his WHIP never higher then 1.33 (that in 2005 and trending downward prior to last year). He hadn't K'd fewer then 179 batters before last year either. He's rock steady, and still only 30. Sure, he's not the sexiest name of the bunch, but consistancy is king sometimes when it comes to starters, and he will be a great number 2 to Peavy, where as the other guys simply might be great number 2's.
Incredible breakdown, would you trade Ervin and Phillips for Kinsler then since I'd be throwing Ervin back?
I like your previous post of a 2 for 1 with Phillips and Ervin for Kinsler. Definitely worth doing , and I would keep Lackey if Ervin is shipped out. It looks like all the other players worth doing a 2 for 1 for have been kept already.
I am OK with dropping Phillips if this trade doesn't go through since OPS is the extra category and it lessens his value a bit. 2B ranked in the 10-12 range (guys like Kelly Johnson, Polanco, Jose Lopez, etc.)all have something to offer whether its power, avg or OPS.
I do not like Gonzalez very much...strikes out a ton without many walks, has no one to get on base in front of him, doesn't score many runs, zero speed, plays in Petco. Too many things going against him, IMO. I think he is a candidate to regress quite a bit. I think you will be able to get a very good replacement 1b through the draft.
I wil note that in the above scenario you will have a full OF with balance across categories, which is actually a good thing, since outfield is relatively weak these days.
Pithcers are no-brainers for me...see the prior post for excellent Lackey analysis.
As far as trades go, you do have some appealing options. I would definitely try to package Ervin and Gonzo for a stud 1B/3B (depending on if Cabrera has dual eligibility or not) or SS (you could really even throw in one of your OF keepers, since you can only keep six anyway). Check out the guy who has Arod, Tex, Han Ram and see if they would do a three for one for those guys, then you would have a real great set of keepers. Let's just say you can trade Ervin, Gonzo, Beltran for ARod, then your keepers would look like this.
I would absolutely keep Peavy and Ervin as your pitchers.
Ervin has way more upside than Lackey, and Harden hasn't had one healthy season in his life. Ervin was actually even better than his ERA/WHIP indicated last year. Definitely keep them.
I would take Markakis or Kemp over Beltran.
Phillips, Cabrera, Markakis, Kemp.
Beltran is probably better than both Markakis/Kemp right now, but that gap is shrinking, and could be completely closed this year. I think next year and beyond, I'd much rather have Kemp and Markakis.
I agree that Gonzo shouldn't be kept. Horrible offensive team. Horrible park. 1B is just way too deep.
2B is actually pretty deep, so I'd rank Phillips as your 4th best keeper. I could see taking Beltran over Phillips or maybe even Votto instead given the OPS category, who I'd rank ahead of Adrian Gonzalez
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by BigBlue » Wed Dec 31, 2008 2:56 am 
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