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Mixed Opinions

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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby kab21 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 10:27 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I don't disagree, bigwords, but that's part of the issue. Some of these systems project these guys to get major PT, while others do not. I'm interested in why people think one is right, while the other is wrong. PT is not just, will they win a starting spot, but will they be good enough and healthy enough to hold onto it.


Some of these systems aren't making guesses of next year's playing time as much as only looking at the previous seasons. IIRC Marcel simply uses a 5, 4, 3 weighting (3 previous seasons) for it's projections (including G's and AB/IP's). So any player that has missed considerable time due to injury/suspension or a young player that saw alot of bench time can be way off. For example Liriano is projected to pitch 91 IP by Marcel. I like looking at the projections, but they are limited. One thing that they still are good for is looking at rate stats (avg or ERA or HR/AB type stuff).
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby ayebatter » Wed Dec 31, 2008 12:04 am

I'll give you some dollar values that I'd use this yr only based on a 16 team $260,6x6, 2c,mi/ci,5of,1dh,9p settings


Ian Stewart (-5, -5, +3).............9
Nate Schierholtz (+3, -7, +2).......0
Seth Smith (-9, -7, +2)..............0
Andruw Jones (-8, -8, +1)...........0
Steve Pearce (-13, -8, +1)..........0
Adam Lind (+5, -4, 0)...............10
Chris Dickerson (+6, -4, -2).........0
Pablo Sandoval (+6, -3, -2)..........9
Howie Kendrick (+4, -2.1, +2)......13
Todd Helton (+3, -2, +2)............11
Daniel Murphy (+3, -5, -2)...........0
Cameron Maybin (+3, -7, -5)........0
Carlos Gomez (+3, -2, -5)...........10

Hope this helps. Playing time is the key issue on the $0 values, if time increases value will change, except for Andrew, he'll be $0 in my book all year.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 31, 2008 12:44 am

bigwords wrote:I think that many of these projection services have standardized algorithms for projecting PT. They aren't subjective calls on a player's PT. Think it's more based on PT history. But I agree that there is an interesting debate to be had on whether a player can beat or fall short of projected PT. Since many other fantasy owners draft on projections, there may be value in figuring that out.

By the way, fangraphs has Bill James' projections for free.


While that's true for Marcel--as noted above, just a rote formula--both CHONE and James make extensive efforts to project playing time.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby noseeum » Wed Dec 31, 2008 12:59 am

kab21 wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I don't disagree, bigwords, but that's part of the issue. Some of these systems project these guys to get major PT, while others do not. I'm interested in why people think one is right, while the other is wrong. PT is not just, will they win a starting spot, but will they be good enough and healthy enough to hold onto it.


Some of these systems aren't making guesses of next year's playing time as much as only looking at the previous seasons. IIRC Marcel simply uses a 5, 4, 3 weighting (3 previous seasons) for it's projections (including G's and AB/IP's). So any player that has missed considerable time due to injury/suspension or a young player that saw alot of bench time can be way off. For example Liriano is projected to pitch 91 IP by Marcel. I like looking at the projections, but they are limited. One thing that they still are good for is looking at rate stats (avg or ERA or HR/AB type stuff).


That makes Marcel essentially useless for young and previously injured players when it comes to counting stats, right? I understand having something simple and repeatable but not when the cost is making your projections completely worthless.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:31 am

I get the impression from looking at Marcel that it is based only on MLB data, which does make it unreliable for players that have less than 3 years experience, but I am not sure that this is the case. Not sure why you would not use MLE data for the younger players, to fix that, if my impression is correct.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:44 am

OK, just went back and re-read the page and for players with less than 3 years experience, marcel subs in league average performance for the missing data.

I always balance my use of projection data on younger players with MLE data, my own look at their minor league performance, and prospect rankings. If you want the MLE data Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory has published it for last year. I used to love the prospect compilation data that was available at JDM. They stopped providing that, but I was happy to find this one today :)

http://baseballdigestdaily.com/blogs/20 ... r-29-2008/
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:48 am

I would also say that I would not agree that Marcel is really that much less reliable for previously injured players. Injured players tend to get re-injured, so factoring in their performance while injured much more than the typical fantasy player does, imo, tends to be a good idea.

Marcels, by the way, include a reliability index that is supposed to guide you on how much confidence you should have in the projection.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby kab21 » Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:39 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I would also say that I would not agree that Marcel is really that much less reliable for previously injured players. Injured players tend to get re-injured, so factoring in their performance while injured much more than the typical fantasy player does, imo, tends to be a good idea.

Marcels, by the way, include a reliability index that is supposed to guide you on how much confidence you should have in the projection.


Without looking at how they derived the reliability index I would assume that it is based on some sort of statistical variability. An interesting bit of data, but not without limitations. And my problem isn't with the reliability of the projection of the rate stats, but rather using past playing time data to forecast future playing time.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby bigwords » Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:56 am

I agree that you can't throw the projections out the window just because the "incomplete" data set leads to great variance. The projections for these volatile players are a function of small sample sets and/or inconsistent playing time, but they are also an indication of the wide divergent paths the players may take. In essence, the definition of volatility. It's not surprising that high volatility follows the young and follows the previously injured. My original point was really that these players weren't of "mixed opinions," so much as projection-resistant. The variance you uncovered may be largely due to objective input technicalities.

As I said, it's worthy to discuss these players on the grounds as to whether they'll have the opportunity and health to contribute beyond expectation.

Not sure these players are more "controversial" from a projection standpoint than their peers beyond great variance in playing time (which translates to great variance in value). Might also be interesting to take all the players projected above 500 at bats (by Marcel, Chone, James, etc.) and use your original standings gain points method to compare players without the PT volatility.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby noseeum » Wed Dec 31, 2008 12:31 pm

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:I would also say that I would not agree that Marcel is really that much less reliable for previously injured players. Injured players tend to get re-injured, so factoring in their performance while injured much more than the typical fantasy player does, imo, tends to be a good idea.

Marcels, by the way, include a reliability index that is supposed to guide you on how much confidence you should have in the projection.


I disagree. The method to the calculation for playing time is arbitrary. Take Liriano. We know why he missed time the last two years. Is 92 innings a reasonable projection for this year? I don't think so, based on what we know of Tommy John surgery. Other projection systems take into account the injury proneness of players as well, but they also look at the individual circumstances.

Marcel's method falls flat for players that have significant injuries that keep them out for a long time.
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