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Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Dec 30, 2008 5:14 pm

I've loaded some projections data (James, Marcel, Chone) into Excel and computer standings gain points based on my keeper league (it's a 16 team 6x6 with OPS). There are guys that come up with wide variation in projected value. I'd be interested in thoughts on what people think. Guys are listed below with SGP from each system in order (James, Marcel, Chone):

Ian Stewart (-5, -5, +3)
Nate Schierholtz (+3, -7, +2)
Seth Smith (-9, -7, +2)
Andruw Jones (-8, -8, +1)
Steve Pearce (-13, -8, +1)
Adam Lind (+5, -4, 0)
Chris Dickerson (+6, -4, -2)
Pablo Sandoval (+6, -3, -2)
Howie Kendrick (+4, -2.1, +2)
Todd Helton (+3, -2, +2)
Daniel Murphy (+3, -5, -2)
Cameron Maybin (+3, -7, -5)
Carlos Gomez (+3, -2, -5)


Just wondering whether people think they would be near the top estimate, near the bottom, or in the middle.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:04 pm

Is there an easy way to download Chone & James projections?

I know Marcel has an easy download on fangraphs, but I haven't been able to find an easy way to download Chone or James.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby noseeum » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:12 pm

A lot of these guys are either young, were terrible last year and aging, or have injury histories.

It makes a lot of sense to see so much variance in some of these names. One can argue A Jones had a terrible year but the skills are still there, or one could believe he's done for good.

Kendrick, some will be skeptical he can make it through a whole season.

Maybin, how much playing time will he get?

For me, A Jones is done.

Helton I think will offer a positive return but not so much that I want him to be my starting first baseman.

Kendrick, I'm passing on him. Seems like a singles hitter that only offers average and not much speed, plus he's injury prone. I needed more growth last year to keep believing.

Lind I like. I wouldn't mind getting him as a fifth outfielder hoping he surprises me into taking a starting spot on my squad.

Sandoval I like too, but I don't think I'd draft him until I hear more news in the spring about his role. He'd be nice to have as a second catcher if he's eligible, but I don't think he'll net enough games to start in fantasy anywhere else. I think he's probably a year away from being a solid contributor.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby bigwords » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:13 pm

Wouldn't be surprised if the wide variation in projected value for many of the players you list isn't due to variation in performance per se, but variation in projected playing time.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GiantsFan14 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:43 pm

sandoval will be an everyday starter at 3B with occasional playing time at C. i don't think playing time will be much of an issue with him.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby J35J » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:27 pm

bigwords wrote:Wouldn't be surprised if the wide variation in projected value for many of the players you list isn't due to variation in performance per se, but variation in projected playing time.


;-D
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby bigwords » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:35 pm

I meant that most projection services like James, Marcel, Chone use algorithms based on recent history to project future performance. Thus, if a player is young or has had injury time in the prior three years, these systems will have different methods for figuring out the number of at bats that the player will get in 2009. They may like Sandoval for instance but one projection service might figure he'll get about the same number of at bats (145) he got last season. Another projection service might calculate to 450. Another might see his job as solid and calculate to 600. Thus, if playing time isn't adjusted, standings gain points could be very beholden to the number of at bats projected and not necessarily what the player does in those at bats.

Example is Nelson Cruz.

Under Bill James system, he's projected to bring phenomenal value: 28 HR, 18 steals in 443 at bats.
Under the Marcel system, he's projected to have 10 HR and 4 steals...which looks like a very, very bad season until you see that Marcel is only projecting 271 at bats. If he plays every day and approaches 600 at bats, that would translate to a much more respectable 20-10 season.

Thus, I'm not sure if Stewart, Schierholtz, Jones, etc. are really "controversial" from a projection system standpoint as much as the system has a hard time reading the number of at bats they'll be getting.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:00 pm

I don't disagree, bigwords, but that's part of the issue. Some of these systems project these guys to get major PT, while others do not. I'm interested in why people think one is right, while the other is wrong. PT is not just, will they win a starting spot, but will they be good enough and healthy enough to hold onto it.
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:04 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Is there an easy way to download Chone & James projections?

I know Marcel has an easy download on fangraphs, but I haven't been able to find an easy way to download Chone or James.


James is available from his web site, http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com, for a $10 fee (I have not downloaded that one, and am just eyeballing some things for James so far.

CHONE has his player projections in a csv file now on his web site, baseballprojections.com (I think that's right).
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Re: Mixed Opinions

Postby bigwords » Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:03 pm

I think that many of these projection services have standardized algorithms for projecting PT. They aren't subjective calls on a player's PT. Think it's more based on PT history. But I agree that there is an interesting debate to be had on whether a player can beat or fall short of projected PT. Since many other fantasy owners draft on projections, there may be value in figuring that out.

By the way, fangraphs has Bill James' projections for free.
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