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2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:50 pm

Yoda wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:I started my projections and as of now, here's my 21-40

21. Felix Hernandez
22. Ervin Santana
23. Chris Young
24. Randy Johnson
25. Justin Duchscherer
26. Ted Lilly
27. Derek Lowe
28. Edinson Volquez
29. Ricky Nolasco
30. Yovani Gallardo
31. Cliff Lee
32. Jered Weaver
33. John Lackey
34. Ryan Dempster
35. Zach Greinke
36. John Danks
37. Jon Lester
38. Francisco Liriano
39. Justin Verlander
40. Kevin Slowey


I do not like this list.


I rarely agree with Yoda, but I have to now.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby AquaMan2342 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:40 pm

Yoda wrote:I almost never look at W's when evaluating a pitcher. Given two similar pitchers, I'd slightly bump up the value of the one on a better team but it is nearly impossible to predict W's in general.


X2. Too many factors into getting a W.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Element » Sat Jan 10, 2009 3:19 pm

Yoda wrote:I almost never look at W's when evaluating a pitcher. Given two similar pitchers, I'd slightly bump up the value of the one on a better team but it is nearly impossible to predict W's in general.


While I agree, wins is often a category where the middle of the pack is bunched together. Over the past 4 years in my big money league, the average difference between 7th and 2nd place in wins is 6 wins. You increase the likelihood of your starter earning a win if you consider the variables & weigh them accordingly. Filling your staff with middle tier, good ratio starters on bad to average teams will likely have you at the bottom of that range within the category.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby colt4523 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 3:59 pm

Anybody think that Billingsley's broken leg is going to cause him any problems?
90% of my posts are from complaining about my team :)
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Yoda » Sat Jan 10, 2009 4:54 pm

Syfo-Dyas wrote:
Yoda wrote:
Another Blown Save wrote:I started my projections and as of now, here's my 21-40

21. Felix Hernandez
22. Ervin Santana
23. Chris Young
24. Randy Johnson
25. Justin Duchscherer
26. Ted Lilly
27. Derek Lowe
28. Edinson Volquez
29. Ricky Nolasco
30. Yovani Gallardo
31. Cliff Lee
32. Jered Weaver
33. John Lackey
34. Ryan Dempster
35. Zach Greinke
36. John Danks
37. Jon Lester
38. Francisco Liriano
39. Justin Verlander
40. Kevin Slowey


I do not like this list.


I rarely agree with Yoda, but I have to now.


Does it suck to be wrong all the time? :-D
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 10, 2009 9:37 pm

Element wrote:
Yoda wrote:I almost never look at W's when evaluating a pitcher. Given two similar pitchers, I'd slightly bump up the value of the one on a better team but it is nearly impossible to predict W's in general.


While I agree, wins is often a category where the middle of the pack is bunched together. Over the past 4 years in my big money league, the average difference between 7th and 2nd place in wins is 6 wins. You increase the likelihood of your starter earning a win if you consider the variables & weigh them accordingly. Filling your staff with middle tier, good ratio starters on bad to average teams will likely have you at the bottom of that range within the category.


Yeah, in my league the marginal number of wins for a SGP is 2. So, basically 1-2 extra wins per pitching slots gains you 4-6 points. It's hard to predict, but if I'm on the fence with two pitchers because they are basically the same in other cats, I'll go with the one that is on the team that has the higher projected win total or the stronger offense.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby tavo2311 » Sat Jan 10, 2009 11:58 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.

His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.

Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.


Atrocious is a little rough. I'll give you Jeter, but I guess you've watched about a month of Cano's career?

On Wang, as mentioned by another poster, he will always be a better real life pitcher than fantasy. On a football note since it's on my TV right now, think Eli Manning.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sun Jan 11, 2009 10:51 am

Yoda wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
Yoda wrote:I do not like this list.


I rarely agree with Yoda, but I have to now.


Does it suck to be wrong all the time? :-D


You tell me. You're the "expert". :-D
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Curtis Pride » Sun Jan 11, 2009 11:56 am

tavo2311 wrote:
Curtis Pride wrote:To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.

His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.

Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.


Atrocious is a little rough. I'll give you Jeter, but I guess you've watched about a month of Cano's career?

On Wang, as mentioned by another poster, he will always be a better real life pitcher than fantasy. On a football note since it's on my TV right now, think Eli Manning.

The fact that you determine a players defensive value by watching them is a sign that you are biased and uninformed. There are defensive metrics that are more reliable than the (untrained) human eye (unless you are a professional scout). And they say that Cano is substandard. In fact, according to fangraphs, Cano was the worst fielding 2B in baseball last year.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby KCollins1304 » Sun Jan 11, 2009 1:08 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:
tavo2311 wrote:
Curtis Pride wrote:To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.

His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.

Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.


Atrocious is a little rough. I'll give you Jeter, but I guess you've watched about a month of Cano's career?

On Wang, as mentioned by another poster, he will always be a better real life pitcher than fantasy. On a football note since it's on my TV right now, think Eli Manning.

The fact that you determine a players defensive value by watching them is a sign that you are biased and uninformed. There are defensive metrics that are more reliable than the (untrained) human eye (unless you are a professional scout). And they say that Cano is substandard. In fact, according to fangraphs, Cano was the worst fielding 2B in baseball last year.



Cano was rated above average by most metrics in 2007.
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