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2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Yoda » Mon Jan 05, 2009 1:58 pm

Dan Lambskin wrote:here are my top 20 and 21-40...i definately need to refine these still

1 Johan Santana 
2 CC Sabathia 
3 Brandon Webb 
4 Jake Peavy 
5 Cole Hamels 
6 Tim Lincecum 
7 Roy Halladay 
8 John Lackey 
9 Dan Haren 
10 Scott Kazmir 
11 Josh Beckett 
12 Carlos Zambrano 
13 Felix Hernandez 
14 Chad Billingsley 
15 A.J. Burnett 
16 Roy Oswalt 
17 Ervin Santana 
18 Daisuke Matsuzaka 
19 James Shields 
20 Justin Verlander 


21 Adam Wainwright 
22 Edinson Volquez 
23 Max Scherzer 
24 Jon Lester 
25 Erik Bedard 
26 Matt Garza 
27 Francisco Liriano 
28 Rich Harden 
29 Ben Sheets 
30 Yovani Gallardo 
31 Aaron Harang 
32 Ricky Nolasco 
33 Zack Greinke 
34 Cliff Lee 
35 Ryan Dempster 
36 Jered Weaver 
37 Josh Johnson 
38 Brett Myers 
39 Ted Lilly 
40 Joe Saunders 


No love for Vazquez or Joba?
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Curtis Pride » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:17 pm

Based on the discussion in the thread, if I were to update this (I probably will in Feb), I would move Sheets, AJ Burnett and Cliff Lee all out if the teens and into the mid-late 20s, while moving Liriano, Billingsley, and Nolasco into the top 20.

I'd also move Greinke and Chris Young into the top 40 (mid 30s probably), pushing out Wang & Derek Lowe.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Curtis Pride » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:22 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:its utterly pointless to post your top 21-40 list without posting your 1-20. :-t


Pretty much, hard to really gauge anything without seeing the first part.


No, it isn't. It doesn't matter if I have Beckett ranked 8th or 19th for these purposes, I guarantee that everyone could list the pitchers I included in my top 20 without me listing them. There aren't any big names I skipped over (maybe Duchscherer, but I can't imagine anyone would have him in the top 20).

In fact, the entire point of the discussion was my 2nd tier pitchers. If I listed that I had Ervin over Lackey or Harden over Zambrano, or Peavy listed 7th, then people would talk about that and it would cloud the issue of the second tier of pitchers.
Last edited by Curtis Pride on Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:25 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:I guarantee that everyone could list the pitchers I included in my top 20 without listing them.

I would really, really like to see you do this. :-b

Good point though. It would probably be more useful to say something like "Just ahead in the top 20 are Greinke, Beckett, and Sheets" or something, just like how some people said "Just missing the top 40 are Lowe, Saunders, and Garza".
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:44 pm

To spotlight another pitcher in this range, let's talk about Chien-Ming Wang. I'm curious to see what people here think of him. I, for example, seem to have him quite high compared to most - around 35 or so.

With Wang, you know exactly what you are going to get - a 3.7ish ERA, 1.3ish WHIP, 18+ wins, and low Ks. Although still low, his K rate is definitely beginning to rise partly due to increased use of his slider. His BABIP will always be low, gives up very few HRs, and really has been quite dependable. His injury last year was not pitching related, so he'll likely not be an injury risk.

I predict: 32 GS, 210 IP, 19 W, 5 L, 3.65 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 130 K
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Dan Lambskin » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:47 pm

Yoda wrote:
Dan Lambskin wrote:here are my top 20 and 21-40...i definately need to refine these still

1 Johan Santana 
2 CC Sabathia 
3 Brandon Webb 
4 Jake Peavy 
5 Cole Hamels 
6 Tim Lincecum 
7 Roy Halladay 
8 John Lackey 
9 Dan Haren 
10 Scott Kazmir 
11 Josh Beckett 
12 Carlos Zambrano 
13 Felix Hernandez 
14 Chad Billingsley 
15 A.J. Burnett 
16 Roy Oswalt 
17 Ervin Santana 
18 Daisuke Matsuzaka 
19 James Shields 
20 Justin Verlander 


21 Adam Wainwright 
22 Edinson Volquez 
23 Max Scherzer 
24 Jon Lester 
25 Erik Bedard 
26 Matt Garza 
27 Francisco Liriano 
28 Rich Harden 
29 Ben Sheets 
30 Yovani Gallardo 
31 Aaron Harang 
32 Ricky Nolasco 
33 Zack Greinke 
34 Cliff Lee 
35 Ryan Dempster 
36 Jered Weaver 
37 Josh Johnson 
38 Brett Myers 
39 Ted Lilly 
40 Joe Saunders 


No love for Vazquez or Joba?


i have them 49 and 48 right now. Joba would move up if i knew for sure he'd be a starter all year...

...and i still have a lot more research to do...i doubt Cliff Lee stays in my top 40. Dice-K will probably drop out of the top 20, Grienke may move up (although he's getting Lincecum-esque hype right now)
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Curtis Pride » Mon Jan 05, 2009 3:57 pm

To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.

His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.

Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Yoda » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:18 pm

I almost never look at W's when evaluating a pitcher. Given two similar pitchers, I'd slightly bump up the value of the one on a better team but it is nearly impossible to predict W's in general.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Fade2White12 » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:32 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:To assume 18+ wins is pretty aggressive. I do realize he's done it twice in his two full years, but it's aggressive nonetheless.

His entire value is in wins and ERA. He's always going to give up a ton of hits since he's a massive groundball hitter and the Yankees middle infield defense is atrocious, so his WHIP will be high. He doesn't strike out many people so that hurts.

Wins and ERA are both open to a lot of variability. Some bad luck with run support and he goes 14-11. A couple squibbers "past a diving Jeter" and his ERA creeps into the low 4s instead of mid 3s. So even though I have him projected at 17-8 with a sub 4 ERA, it still also comes with a mediocre 1.30 WHIP and barely 100ks. That makes him a reach any higher than about 30. If you give him 20 wins and a mid 3 ERA, it still only makes him about a top 20-25 SP by my calculations. His WHIP and low Ks will just keep him from being a very valuable pitcher.


I do admit, I can agree with almost all of it. But still, I'm somewhat on the fence.

First, with Ks, I do expect them to increase. He has done it each season, from 3.1, to 4.7, to 5.1. In 06 and 07, he had almost identical stats except for the Ks. An increase by 28 Ks bumped him 4 spots from the 34th best SP in baseball to the 30th (even with less IP and a slightly higher ERA). If his Ks increase again from last year, which I expect if he keeps his altering his pitch selection as he has, I see him becoming exactly what you said - in the 20-25 range.

With defense, it depends which Jeter/Cano duo shows up this year. We can all agree that Jeter is an average defender at best, but last year was actually one of his best defensive years (-.4 UZR). With Cano, just a couple of years ago he was one of the better fielding 2Bs, above an 8.0 UZR. And even last year, Cano had a decent UZR pre-allstar, but had a couple months of horrible defensive play. But even so, in 07, Wang still had great numbers even with Jeter's league worst UZR (-20!).

I think he's obviously not a sexy pick, and really doesn't have immense upside. But I really do think that he's one of the more dependable and predictable pitchers around that ADP.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Jan 05, 2009 4:36 pm

Wang will always be a better real life pitcher than fantasy. Unless you count GB/FB as a stat.
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