AquaMan2342 wrote: OK so he's a huge injury risk and had two good years in a row a few years ago. What's your point?
More like two top-5 years in a row preceded by a good year. I can't imagine what would qualify as a "great" year in your eyes if that's merely "good".
He's pitched 21 innings in the last two seasons. OK, he had two great legendarily awesome supernatural-being-like years. Unless he really is announced as their closer, I wouldn't touch him. There's a difference between risk/reward and simply wasting a pick. It's not like he's Chipper Jones and actually plays part of the season and contributes. Why doesn't anybody talk about Jason Schmidt late then?
The time missed the last two years is due to one injury, and he hasn't yet pitched enough to assess how successful the surgery was. TJ surgery isn't career-ending like it was in the 80s, he could still come back and be effective. Dempster came back after TJ surgery and had an All-Star year his first season back as a SP. And what of pitchers like Burnett? Rivera? Rogers? Jury's still out on Josh Johnson, Liriano, and McGowan, but a lot of people seem to like them.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Neato Torpedo wrote:The time missed the last two years is due to one injury, and he hasn't yet pitched enough to assess how successful the surgery was. TJ surgery isn't career-ending like it was in the 80s, he could still come back and be effective. Dempster came back after TJ surgery and had an All-Star year his first season back as a SP. And what of pitchers like Burnett? Rivera? Rogers? Jury's still out on Josh Johnson, Liriano, and McGowan, but a lot of people seem to like them.
Carpenter had a torn labrum in 2003 and TJ in 2007. He will be 34 and coming off another major surgery. The guys you mentioned had TJ (except for McGowan had labrum surgery) much earlier in their careers.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Neato Torpedo wrote:The time missed the last two years is due to one injury, and he hasn't yet pitched enough to assess how successful the surgery was. TJ surgery isn't career-ending like it was in the 80s, he could still come back and be effective. Dempster came back after TJ surgery and had an All-Star year his first season back as a SP. And what of pitchers like Burnett? Rivera? Rogers? Jury's still out on Josh Johnson, Liriano, and McGowan, but a lot of people seem to like them.
The other problem is that some of those guys pitched a half season of relative success (not a fan of McGowan personally). Carp hasn't shown that he's healthy or that his surgery was a success. As a matter of fact he had to have an additional surgery because of complications.
Neato Torpedo wrote:The time missed the last two years is due to one injury, and he hasn't yet pitched enough to assess how successful the surgery was. TJ surgery isn't career-ending like it was in the 80s, he could still come back and be effective. Dempster came back after TJ surgery and had an All-Star year his first season back as a SP. And what of pitchers like Burnett? Rivera? Rogers? Jury's still out on Josh Johnson, Liriano, and McGowan, but a lot of people seem to like them.
The other problem is that some of those guys pitched a half season of relative success (not a fan of McGowan personally). Carp hasn't shown that he's healthy or that his surgery was a success. As a matter of fact he had to have an additional surgery because of complications.
Well, I'm not saying he'll be good necessarily, just that it's too early to write him off. So far it's almost as silly to say "oh, he's done, forget him" as it is to say that he'll be a solid fantasy contributor in '09, there's just not enough results to go on, unless you wanna count the 15 1/3 IP in '08.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Neato Torpedo wrote:Well, I'm not saying he'll be good necessarily, just that it's too early to write him off. So far it's almost as silly to say "oh, he's done, forget him" as it is to say that he'll be a solid fantasy contributor in '09, there's just not enough results to go on, unless you wanna count the 15 1/3 IP in '08.
I haven't written him off. I'm just not ranking him in the top 30 or something like that.
Neato Torpedo wrote:Well, I'm not saying he'll be good necessarily, just that it's too early to write him off. So far it's almost as silly to say "oh, he's done, forget him" as it is to say that he'll be a solid fantasy contributor in '09, there's just not enough results to go on, unless you wanna count the 15 1/3 IP in '08.
I haven't written him off. I'm just not ranking him in the top 30 or something like that.
I don't think anyone has him in the top 30. I got him as the 58th pitcher in the cafe mock. He's worth the gamble there.
here are my top 20 and 21-40...i definately need to refine these still
1 Johan Santana 2 CC Sabathia 3 Brandon Webb 4 Jake Peavy 5 Cole Hamels 6 Tim Lincecum 7 Roy Halladay 8 John Lackey 9 Dan Haren 10 Scott Kazmir 11 Josh Beckett 12 Carlos Zambrano 13 Felix Hernandez 14 Chad Billingsley 15 A.J. Burnett 16 Roy Oswalt 17 Ervin Santana 18 Daisuke Matsuzaka 19 James Shields 20 Justin Verlander
21 Adam Wainwright 22 Edinson Volquez 23 Max Scherzer 24 Jon Lester 25 Erik Bedard 26 Matt Garza 27 Francisco Liriano 28 Rich Harden 29 Ben Sheets 30 Yovani Gallardo 31 Aaron Harang 32 Ricky Nolasco 33 Zack Greinke 34 Cliff Lee 35 Ryan Dempster 36 Jered Weaver 37 Josh Johnson 38 Brett Myers 39 Ted Lilly 40 Joe Saunders