I don't have Smoltz or Carpenter ranked higher than Johnson (I don't even have Smoltz ranked), and I have Bedard ranked higher because he's one year removed from Cy Young type numbers. Also, as per your argument that TJ surgery makes pitchers come back stronger after a couple years, you should be right there on the Carpenter train. I have Price 8 spots better, Joba 3 better, and Scherzer 4 lower. They're all in the same general area, though those three have higher risk/reward. I don't think Johnson will ever be much more than a back-end #2 or a solid #3.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Scherzer seems to be overlooked. Everyone is going nuts over Price and Joba but I think Scherzer is the better buy. He did get injured which is concerning but he pitched well everywhere including the AFL. Should be a good bargain late in the draft.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Look at the progression of BB/9 that Lincecum, Sabathia, Johan, EVERYONE has done in their 23-26 years.
Johnson came back from surgery, had no setbacks and improved his control. He came back no faster than Liriano.
And the recovery time for TJ surgery continues to shorten with every new patient
I sure hope you aren't comparing Josh Johnson to those three guys... because obviously that isn't a valid comparison. What makes you think that Josh Johnson, who had control problems throughout the minors, which was universally diagnosed throughout the scouting world as his largest flaw, is going to suddenly find control like the current top three pitchers in the game? For as many that have completely shed their control issues, there are 5-times as many that took several additional years, or never was able to, to mature in that way.
About Liriano, by no faster, I assume you mean faster. Time between Liriano's last pitch of '06 and first of '07 - 17 months. Then what happened? His wretched control and lowered velocity caused him to be sent down to the minors for three and a half months...
It's because they are completely different situations than Johnson. Lincecum has an extremely high K rate and gives up very few hits. His BB rate has less to do with his control and more with his pitch selection during most situations. Lincecum is a prodigy on a completely different level than Josh Johnson. With Sabathia, his control issues weren't solved until he logged almost 800 major league IPs. And neither are a year removed from TJ.
High BB rates are not always indicative of poor control, and are not always overcome through experience. In fact most times they aren't. Look at all qualified pitchers last year who had BB:9 rates higher than Johnson's career averages. Other than Daisuke, I would say none of them had worthwhile fantasy seasons.
The fact that two of the best pitchers in baseball have overcome high BB rates are simply exceptions.
As an age group, pitchers improve their command pretty precipitously as their career progresses.
That's quite a blanket statement. It's like saying that veteran players often out-perform rookies. Young age groups often improve their control because every statistic improves as players progress. I'm not saying that players don't improve as they gain experience. It's that the average player does not make giant leaps away from their game, except in only rare circumstances. I highly doubt that Josh Johnson is one of those exceptions. What are the chances that Josh Johnson suddenly finds the touch and his control woes fade away a year after elbow reconstruction?
Like I said in my first post - I like him a lot as a pitcher, but this year I don't think he puts it all together. Not yet.
I'm saying that you pool every player and compare their aged 23 season with their 22 season and their command will be much better. 24 will be better than 23, and so on. I shy away from saying "every" because someone is bound to find a handful of pitchers who don't fit the mold, but the vast vast vast majority of pitchers dramatically improve their command - just as Johan, Sabathia, Peavy, Lincecum, and every other elite pitcher has done. The reason I mention them isn't to say that Josh Johnson is going to be as great as them, but to point out that every single power pitcher / high k pitcher starts their career with pretty substandard control.
And what I don't get is your insistence on Johnson as having massive control problems. He had better control last year their either Lincecum or Billingsly.
Johnson had better K and BB rates than Matt Cain and similar BB rates (with as good or nearly as good k rates) as Johan, Peavy, Dempster, Billingsly, Zambrano, and Brandon Webb.
You are stuck on his BB rates from 2006 (when he was 22), when it's common for pitchers to improve their control, and Johnson has done it so far. The reason his WHIP was high this year was because of a .360 BABIP, not because of his control.