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2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Sp_Da_Man » Tue Dec 30, 2008 9:48 pm

I see alot of potential steals on the lists posted above.

Guys like Verlander, Harang & Bedard if healthy are guys I'm hoping to target in drafts. Potentially top 10 #'s from all of those guys.

I think Gallardo could be undervalued too.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Dec 31, 2008 4:04 am

NorthSider2 wrote:I'm reading some of your ranks and Cliff Lee in the 20s? I thought he pitched phenomenal last season to be named top 12? 22 wins is very impressive. I know he season's before that were shaky but he had some good stuff.

I don't know those are just my thoughts

30 years old with 1 1/2 good seasons under his belt, and mediocre/below average otherwise? Remind you of anyone? coughPatHentgencough sneezeKevinMillwoodsneeze
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Wheelhouse » Wed Dec 31, 2008 5:37 am

J35J wrote:Starting Pitching is very wide open this year it seems. At least it feels that way. One in particular is that you don't have Greinke in the top 40 but I've got him in the top 15. Here's my top 50
1 Tim Lincecum
2 Johan Santana
3 CC Sabathia
4 Cole Hamels
5 Dan Haren
6 Jake Peavy
7 Brandon Webb
8 Roy Halladay
9 Chad Billingsley
10 Roy Oswalt
11 James Shields
12 Felix Hernandez
13 Ervin Santana
14 Zack Greinke
15 John Lackey
16 Rich Harden
17 Ben Sheets
18 Josh Beckett
19 Scott Kazmir
20 Matt Cain
21 Jon Lester
22 Javier Vazquez
23 Adam Wainwright
24 Cliff Lee
25 Yovani Gallardo
26 Daisuke Matsuzaka
27 Carlos Zambrano
28 Matt Garza
29 Ricky Nolasco
30 Erik Bedard
31 John Smoltz
32 Joba Chamberlain
33 A.J. Burnett
34 Justin Verlander
35 Aaron Harang
36 David Price
37 Francisco Liriano
38 Edinson Volquez
39 Scott Baker
40 Gil Meche
41 John Danks
42 Kevin Slowey
43 Max Scherzer
44 Chris Young
45 Ted Lilly
46 Brett Myers
47 Ryan Dempster
48 Hiroki Kuroda
49 Chris Carpenter
50 Justin Duchscherer


i don't know how josh johnson misses your top 50 altogether......i'd probably slot him in the 30-35 range......what's your knock on him?
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Dec 31, 2008 9:42 am

Josh Johnson misses my top 50 as well for a few reasons. First is injury risk - he came back extremely fast from TJ surgery last year after only 11 months. Also, his numbers last year in his return are quite an aberration, especially in his first starts in over a year. He had an unusually low walk rate based on his career yet still had a high WHIP because he gave up a ton of hits.

But I think you are right - that if he can stay healthy that he should be in the top 50 at least. However, I just don't see more than 160ip. If he can, good for him - I actually like him a lot as a pitcher. He has nice velocity, three very good pitches, and has a really intimidating frame.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:18 am

NorthSider2 wrote:I'm reading some of your ranks and Cliff Lee in the 20s? I thought he pitched phenomenal last season to be named top 12? 22 wins is very impressive. I know he season's before that were shaky but he had some good stuff.

I don't know those are just my thoughts


I'm higher than Lee than most here, but I still have him ranked around 17-20. He doesn't K a lot of guys and he's been inconsistent year to year. Still, he was quite impressive last year (amazing BB/9) and has a knack of winning games (career 66% winning pct) despite some mediocre seasons.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby J35J » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:40 am

Faded2White pretty much summed up my thoughts on Josh Johnson. I've never said he hasn't had solid stuff but anything over 160IP is gravy this year, IMHO. So the thought that he's a little higher on the injury list and he's not been terribly consistant with his command and his ability to give up hits and I'm just not going to go there....this year. Josh and their owners are only hoping he can put up Greinke like numbers yet people will probably draft Josh ahead or right next to Greinke this year...way too high for me this year.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:44 am

Johnson may have an injury concern, but Johnson probably won't have to deal with having a nervous breakdown on the mound and being afraid of his shadow like Greinke owners may have to deal with.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby rookies and cream » Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:03 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Johnson may have an injury concern, but Johnson probably won't have to deal with having a nervous breakdown on the mound and being afraid of his shadow like Greinke owners may have to deal with.


Um...Greinke has social anxiety disorder, which led to an episode of depression several years ago. Social phobia is relatively common, with lifetime prevalence rates of around 13%. Fear of public speaking (an associated symptom) is even more common. You may be just joking but your comment is a bit naive. I wouldn't worry about Greinke's mental health. He's since gotten treatment and seems to be doing well.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Wheelhouse » Wed Dec 31, 2008 11:09 am

regarding johnson:

first, on the injury concerns - i think you guys are severely overstating the risk involved. it is common knowledge that pitchers are stronger their second year back from TJS, so this bodes well for him. it is also common knowledge that reinjury to the elbow after TJS is very uncommon within the first 3 years - the surgery corrects the problem and often allows the pitcher to throw harder then they have in the past, cause their elbow is now 100%. could he suffer some other kind of injury? of course, but i don't think it's any more likely then another pitcher. he had a problem, he had it corrected, and he should be even healthier in '09 then he was in '08 (when he enjoyed very good results).

second, on the IP cap - i don't see the marlins capping him at 160. yes, he only threw around 115 last year, but he threw for 150 plus in both '05 and '06. much like greinke (who took his IP from 120 to 200 last year when many thought he'd be shut down early) i think you have to look beyond the one year jump and instead turn attention to previous seasons to see where the marlins might cap him. IF he's healthy (again, no more likely then any other pitcher he'll get hurt in my book) then i can see the marlins taking him to 200.

third, on the walk issue - his walk rate last year was 2.8 BB/9. his minor league walk rate was 3.1 BB/9. to me, that makes sense - a young pitcher is honing his craft, maturing, and making improvements at the major league level. all he has done is put his walk rate at a number he can support with 400+ minor league innings. going back to the TJS, it is also common knowledge that USUALLY control is the last thing for a pitcher to regain after the surgery. it's an impressive sign that he got his back so quickly and i don't see a regression in this area.

i just found it curious to see johnson left off the list while guys with bigger injury concerns (smoltz, carpenter, bedard, etc.) and more likely innings caps (joba, price, scherzer, etc.) were on it. don't see much consistency there.
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Re: 2nd Tier Starters (21-40); The ones who really matter

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Dec 31, 2008 1:24 pm

The problem is not that he had TJ surgery, but that he pitched his first MLB game only 11 months after the procedure. At the very least, he came back 5 weeks early. At the very worst, he came back several months early. For pitchers, even with the best trainers and rehab, the minimum recovery time is a year, but most surgeons recommend an additional 3-6 months. With his large frame and his rush back to the majors, I see the potential for reinjury quite high.

If you discount his rehab starts last year and in 07, his walk rate in the minors is closer to 3.3. And, in his MLB career, his BB:9 is closer to 3.9. Even in his best year, the breakout '06 season, it was 3.9. It's simply that Johnson's biggest weakness is his control, and there is no hiding that. Because of his track record both in the minors and the majors at not locating his pitches, his WHIP will always be at the higher scale for fantasy pitchers, and I expect that to also cause his ERA to be slightly elevated.

Edit: I might as well add my top 50 - but you can see it when the Cafe rankings are published.

Santana, Johan 1
Lincecum, Tim 2
Sabathia, CC 3
Hamels, Cole 4
Peavy, Jake 5
Halladay, Roy 6
Webb, Brandon 7
Haren, Dan 8
Beckett, Josh 9
Billingsley, Chad 10
Kazmir, Scott 11
Hernandez, Felix 12
Lackey, John 13
Lee, Cliff 14
Oswalt, Chad 15 <--- sweet Billingsley/Oswalt hybrid B-)
Matsuzaka, Daisuke 16
Sheets, Ben 17
Santana, Ervin 18
Burnett, A.J. 19
Harden, Rich 20
Greinke, Zack 21
Shields, James 22
Zambrano, Carlos 23
Lester, Jon 24
Chamberlain, Joba 25
Liriano, Francisco 26
Wainwright, Adam 27
Gallardo, Yovani 28
Bedard, Erik 29
Vazquez, Javier 30
Cain, Matt 31
Verlander, Justin 32
Volquez, Edison 33
Garza, Matt 34
Wang, Chien-Ming 35
Price, David 36
Nolasco, Ricky 37
Young, Chris 38
Harang, Aaron 39
Danks, John 40
Meche, Gil 41
Dempster, Ryan 42
Duchscherer, Justin 43
Myers, Brett 44
Lilly, Ted 45
Floyd, Gavin 46
Kershaw, Clayton 47
Baker, Scott 48
Smoltz, John 49
Kuroda, Hiroki 50
Last edited by Fade2White12 on Wed Dec 31, 2008 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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