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SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby RocketsDWM » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:04 pm

What about Lars, Buccholz/Bowden, Lowrie and an OF prospect (Kalish?). That might not be enough though. I hope these talks revitalize. I might even accept the Buccholz/Ellsbury deal even though I would hate to lose Jacoby. Hanley would be the eventual power replacement for Ortiz and would fit nicely with a core of Youk and Pedroia.
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:10 pm

At the price Hanley is signed for, trading him would be absolutely stupid and that might be an understatement. I don't care what prospects they get back.
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby Big Pimpin » Tue Dec 30, 2008 6:48 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:At the price Hanley is signed for, trading him would be absolutely stupid and that might be an understatement. I don't care what prospects they get back.


I don't really agree. Consider that Hanley produced about $32M in "value" last year (what he was worth [$32.7M] vs. what he was paid [$0.4M]), while Ellsbury produced about $15M ($15.7M vs. $0.4M).

Now, once we start looking at the future, the two get closer and closer. For instance, the defensive metrics actually grade Hanley close to average last year, while in years past he's been rated pretty dreadfully. So, if we use all 3 years of data to rate him defensively, knock about $4M from Hanley's "value". Ellsbury will be playing full-time in CF, which actually would increase his value from last year since he spent over half of his innings in the corners.

Also consider the contracts. Hanley's contract is going to be up $5M from last year while Ellsbury will still be at the minimum. Offensively, Hanley is tremendous, and we won't consider any regression. Ellsbury on the other hand, was barely above average last year and based on his minor league track record he certainly stands to get a bit better. Even with a little improvement you're talking another offensive win and their values coming another $4.5M closer.

This isn't to say Hanley isn't a great player signed to a great contract, as he most certainly is. Perhaps even more valuable if he was in CF. But I think Boston actually loses if they trade Ellsbury, Buchholz, and a couple of top prospects.
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:22 pm

I hope this encourages Uncle Billy to have a crack for him.
We have the prospects and the hole at SS.
Holliday AND Hanley on the same team?



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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby The_Show » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:32 pm

AussieDodger wrote:I hope this encourages Uncle Billy to have a crack for him.
We have the prospects and the hole at SS.
Holliday AND Hanley on the same team?



:-L :-L :-L :-L (drools on keyboard and electrocutes himself) :-L :-L :-L :-L

Keep dreaming, he isn't going anywhere ;-)
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby J35J » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:38 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
AquaMan2342 wrote:At the price Hanley is signed for, trading him would be absolutely stupid and that might be an understatement. I don't care what prospects they get back.


I don't really agree. Consider that Hanley produced about $32M in "value" last year (what he was worth [$32.7M] vs. what he was paid [$0.4M]), while Ellsbury produced about $15M ($15.7M vs. $0.4M).

Now, once we start looking at the future, the two get closer and closer. For instance, the defensive metrics actually grade Hanley close to average last year, while in years past he's been rated pretty dreadfully. So, if we use all 3 years of data to rate him defensively, knock about $4M from Hanley's "value". Ellsbury will be playing full-time in CF, which actually would increase his value from last year since he spent over half of his innings in the corners.

Also consider the contracts. Hanley's contract is going to be up $5M from last year while Ellsbury will still be at the minimum. Offensively, Hanley is tremendous, and we won't consider any regression. Ellsbury on the other hand, was barely above average last year and based on his minor league track record he certainly stands to get a bit better. Even with a little improvement you're talking another offensive win and their values coming another $4.5M closer.

This isn't to say Hanley isn't a great player signed to a great contract, as he most certainly is. Perhaps even more valuable if he was in CF. But I think Boston actually loses if they trade Ellsbury, Buchholz, and a couple of top prospects.


Agreed for the most part. To get 4 grade A prospects at different positions for 1 player would be amazing.
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby AussieDodger » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:43 pm

The_Show wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I hope this encourages Uncle Billy to have a crack for him.
We have the prospects and the hole at SS.
Holliday AND Hanley on the same team?



:-L :-L :-L :-L (drools on keyboard and electrocutes himself) :-L :-L :-L :-L

Keep dreaming, he isn't going anywhere ;-)


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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby stevethumb » Tue Dec 30, 2008 7:55 pm

lars anderson wouldnt be of much interest to the marlins .. they already have gabby sanchez, logan morrison, michael stanton (who may end up at 1b)
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Re: SOx tried to deal for Hanley?

Postby thedude » Tue Dec 30, 2008 11:56 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
This isn't to say Hanley isn't a great player signed to a great contract, as he most certainly is. Perhaps even more valuable if he was in CF. But I think Boston actually loses if they trade Ellsbury, Buchholz, and a couple of top prospects.



Which is why all indications are that the trade talks are dead and never really got off the ground. The Marlins have to get a huge package (say Ellsbury, Buchholz, Bowden, and Lars Anderson) in return for it to be worth it, and to sell it to ownership and their fan-base. While the Red Sox would be giving up their lead off man of the future, their best power and average prospect (and one of the best bats all of the minors), a potential ace and potential number 3. It is doubtful that all four live up to their ceilings, but still that is a very stiff price, it could amount to the baseball equivalent of the Herschel Walker trade.
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