I'm in a 16-team keeper league, and I just got an offer of Edinson Volquez for Carlos Quentin straight up. Rosters are already set for next year. My outfielders besides Quentin are Vlad, Berkman, Vernon Wells, Abreu and Delmon Young, and my top starters are Halladay, Beckett, Brett Myers, Wang and Kershaw. My team is one of the top contenders and I've made the playoffs every year this decade, so I'm looking to win now, not later.
I like Quentin a lot, but I'm afraid he just had the best year he's ever going to have and his value will never be higher. But at the same time, I think Volquez is more apt to go backward at any time. Thoughts?
Lemme copy paste my answer from another thread, where someone asked "Volquez, over/under 3.25 ERA in '09":
Way over, at least 3.90, maybe as high as 4.50-4.70. His HR/FB rate was 8% in '08 which is way, way below Great American Launching Pad standards. He's more of a GB pitcher than I thought but his HR/FB rate should climb back towards the Great American Ballpark standard of 12%+. That, coupled with his 4.27 BB/9 (even higher in his MiLB career) tells me he's in for a hell of a down year.
Post-ASB he went 4.60/1.46, which showed that batters finally adjusted to him. His real test will be, can he adjust to the batters' adjustments? It's pretty much a given that his walk rate will be sky-high, so a WHIP above 1.35 is a lock IMO. He'll have solid K rates, but they'll be more or less negated by the BB he'll hand out, which renders him average at best in the extra pitching cat. With the only sure thing being K's and him likely to hurt you in everything else, Quentin and his second-round upside is definitely the way to go.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao