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Opinions please

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Opinions please

Postby grammysboy » Mon Dec 29, 2008 10:40 am

We are an auction league - standard format - 23 players, $260 on draft day. Over the years I have made some horrible choices. I paid $40 for Carlos Beltran the year he went to the Mets (bust). I paid $40 the next year for Jason Bay (Bust). Then $40 for Vlad last season (well below Vlad's usual numbers).

Please tell me who the biggest pretenders are who will bring high dollars at our auction that I should avoid.
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Re: Opinions please

Postby thomasps3 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 11:59 am

Busts? Hmmm.....That is a lot harder than a sleeper, so let me throw a couple of names out there I would be wary of....

David Ortiz
Aubrey Huff
Cliff Lee


off the top of my head, I would not pay full price for any of those guys.......Ortiz at <$30 would be ok, Huff at <$12, and Lee is such a wild card that I would have a had time paying over $10 for....
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Re: Opinions please

Postby J35J » Mon Dec 29, 2008 12:09 pm

Stop spending $40 on players.
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Re: Opinions please

Postby ayebatter » Mon Dec 29, 2008 12:14 pm

J35J wrote:Stop spending $40 on players.



There are no $40 players in your league, there are only a handful of $30 players, curb your spending. ;-)
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Re: Opinions please

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Dec 29, 2008 12:28 pm

Fiscal responsibility. ;-D













Also, Delmon Young :-P
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Re: Opinions please

Postby grammysboy » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:01 pm

J35J wrote:Stop spending $40 on players.


This was the conclusion I had come to, but even $30 players have been busts in this league. If anyone predicted V-Mart ($32) and Travis Hafner ($34) were going to be as terrible as they were last season, I show you a liar. $30+ for those two seemed reasonalbe at the time. It seems that both had undisclosed injuries that caused most of their problems. Are there any "studs" you're aware of who may have an injury that would cause him to be a bust this season?
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Re: Opinions please

Postby noseeum » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:04 pm

If his name isn't Pujols he isn't worth $40.

I'm sure Vlad won't net such a high price tag this year, but if players like Berkman, Hamilton, Teix are netting $35, let other people use all that money and clean up on the next tier.

What are you using for your bidding? Have you set a maximum price for each player that you would go to?
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Re: Opinions please

Postby J35J » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:06 pm

grammysboy wrote:
J35J wrote:Stop spending $40 on players.


This was the conclusion I had come to, but even $30 players have been busts in this league. If anyone predicted V-Mart ($32) and Travis Hafner ($34) were going to be as terrible as they were last season, I show you a liar. $30+ for those two seemed reasonalbe at the time. It seems that both had undisclosed injuries that caused most of their problems. Are there any "studs" you're aware of who may have an injury that would cause him to be a bust this season?


Not many would have said V-Mart would have been a bust but I would think most would tell you he wouldn't be worth $32, that seems quite high to me. It sounds like you are wanting someone to tell you exactly who the busts will be....not going to happen....no one knows. There are numerous threads already though that show who people like and dislike, as well as rankings that will show the same....even the predictions forum will give you an idea of what people think about certain players.
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Re: Opinions please

Postby noseeum » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:15 pm

grammysboy wrote:
J35J wrote:Stop spending $40 on players.


This was the conclusion I had come to, but even $30 players have been busts in this league. If anyone predicted V-Mart ($32) and Travis Hafner ($34) were going to be as terrible as they were last season, I show you a liar. $30+ for those two seemed reasonalbe at the time. It seems that both had undisclosed injuries that caused most of their problems. Are there any "studs" you're aware of who may have an injury that would cause him to be a bust this season?


Those guys wouldn't have returned their prices even if they weren't busts though. Seems lots of owners in your league are paying too much for the top tier. Is this an 8 team league or something? That might explain it as it becomes more critical to have the cream of the crop players in a very shallow league.

Here's Shandler's current projection for Arod, along with his dollar value projection for 4X4 and 5X5:
Statistics:____AB__R__H_HR_RBI_SB BA OBA SLG OPS R$_5x5
Projected Bal: 565 120 166 41 124 20 293 381 570 951 $36 $34

So 120 runs, 41 homers, 124 RBI, and 20 SB from a third baseman only gets you $36 of value in an AL only 12 team league.

For comparison's sake, here's Teix:
Projected Bal: 529 93 157 37 109 2 297 393 577 970 $26 $25

93 runs, 37 homers, 109 RBI, and 2 SB from a first baseman only gets you $26.
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Re: Opinions please

Postby grammysboy » Mon Dec 29, 2008 1:33 pm

noseeum wrote:If his name isn't Pujols he isn't worth $40.

I'm sure Vlad won't net such a high price tag this year, but if players like Berkman, Hamilton, Teix are netting $35, let other people use all that money and clean up on the next tier.

What are you using for your bidding? Have you set a maximum price for each player that you would go to?


We are actually a modified keeper league. Owners can keep up to 10 players at the price they
bought them for a second year. No player may be kept after the second year. Pujols was kept last year at $42 but will be back in the auction this year. Hamilton was bought for $10 and won't be in the auction this year his owner would be foolish to put him back in. Most owners keep 5-6 players at average salaries of $7 (McClouth and Quentin were both bought for $1!), which actually leaves more money to spend on players Teix was first year at $35 and will probably be kept.

I actually do set values on the players I draft, I just got caught up in the Beltran mania and spent all I allowed for him. Same the next year for Bay who was the darling of baseball the year before. If Hamilton were going to be in our draft this year, he would be the one I would target with the $40 tag.
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