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Sleeper 3b

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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby jlm53089 » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:14 am

I know Dallas could play 1B but this is about 3B.
I think they will leave Cantu at 1B.

I feel so bad for Hanely. Imagine if he was on a better team, the #s and the MVP votes he would get.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby Havok1517 » Sun Dec 28, 2008 5:54 am

jlm53089 wrote:I know Dallas could play 1B but this is about 3B.
I think they will leave Cantu at 1B.

I feel so bad for Hanely. Imagine if he was on a better team, the #s and the MVP votes he would get.


Not to knock Hanley, but he's very bad at SS. On a good team, he's likely the 3B.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby wkelly91 » Sun Dec 28, 2008 6:52 am

Back to EE....look at his splits last year.

Pre: 297-ab, 47-15-35-1 .259 53-k
Post: 209-ab, 28-11-33-0 .239 49-k

If you look at this he regressed after the break. 49-k's in 209-ab's...pretty bad. And his BA dropped to .239. And to top it off...where he used to give you 10-15 SB potencial...he stole only "1" base last year. :-t
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby bigwords » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:13 pm

First of all, 200 at bats is a pretty small sample set to make any statistical conclusion.

Second, sorry but 49-k's in 209-ab is not bad. It's a slightly worse than average rate. He ended the season by striking out 20.2% of the team, which was right in line with his career average, 20.1%. And that rate again is roughly about league average for striking out. In fact, for a guy who put up 26 HR last year, a 20% strikeout rate is mighty damn impressive. Most sluggers strike out much worse than the average league strikeout rate.

Third, if you look at his balls in play average, you'll see he was abnormally unlucky last year. In fact, among those who qualified for the batting title, only 8 batters had a worse BABIP.

So point to the declining average and steals and ignore the tremendous growth in power and a skill set (factoring in the walks) that actually points to pretty good plate discipline.

I'm basing my conclusions on Encarnacion on what the stats are telling me -- not the hype machine. I actually was never on the EE hype train until now. I'm impressed by what I see...not by what I hear.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby Another Blown Save » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:45 pm

I haven't really done too much stat analysis so far this off-season (been busy) but I like Gordon and Zimmerman for next year.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby THE TERMINATOR » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:54 pm

oohhh, EE

I Draft him late every year at the right spot and when he disappoints I drop him but go back him later if he is playing will and I guess I'll do it again this year if he isn't overvalued.

But I'll say it right now, I'm not touching him in 2010 if he don't breakout in 2009.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby bigh0rt » Sun Dec 28, 2008 1:35 pm

wkelly91 wrote:Back to EE....look at his splits last year.

Pre: 297-ab, 47-15-35-1 .259 53-k
Post: 209-ab, 28-11-33-0 .239 49-k

If you look at this he regressed after the break. 49-k's in 209-ab's...pretty bad. And his BA dropped to .239. And to top it off...where he used to give you 10-15 SB potencial...he stole only "1" base last year. :-t

If he can piece together his streakiness, he could be productive, but I feel like we've been saying that since '05. He was great in April, June, and July last season, and downright miserable in May, August, and September. Maybe he figures it out this year...
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby Snakes Gould » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:11 am

any love for Kouzz or Headley?
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby jlm53089 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:16 am

I like Chase, but that team is too bad and too much of a pitchers park for me to consider him anymore than a late round flier.
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Re: Sleeper 3b

Postby Snakes Gould » Mon Dec 29, 2008 2:29 am

jlm53089 wrote:I like Chase, but that team is too bad and too much of a pitchers park for me to consider him anymore than a late round flier.


silly. im sure you wouldnt say this about adrian gonzalez would you? im not comparing them to him, but you wouldnt write off him just because of his team or park alone.
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